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This may not get worked out until 48 hrs out from the storm. JB with something to think about.

1234, why the difference between the lollipops and meteogram?

Carvers, I'm not really sure. I just figured the snow output from the meteogram would be higher. The clown map looked to be more around 8" to me when I first looked at the clown but on closer inspection that seems about right. .6 QPF is what the meteograms had from the 0z GFS but the snow accumulation is only 4-5 inches depending on which site you look at.

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Okay... So now I have to buy two sleds maybe? Joking. The way it sounded last Saturday on americanwx winter was over for the SE and Tennessee Valley. Now were talking an extended event. Just saying...

Nah, man. LOL. We are pretty level on this board. Now, next door...the neighbors get a little loud, but we like them too. I been talking climo for a couple of weeks and telling folks that I hate Ninos. They always show-up late and it's feast or famine. Spring. Nino. Climo. Mentioned them all as a shake-up to the pattern. I have had my moments of doubt, and still do. But the 0z GFS and 0z Euro do show another event next weekend. If it keeps up I will post a few thoughts in the Fab Feb thread to keep this event and that potential one separate.

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yeah,the would be historical..3"qpf snow for Nashville,i'm in..lol

Jax, I think it's almost a lock that you break the 4 year snow drought no matter which wave is emphasized. You've hung in tough over the last few years.

I think the highest totals will be between Nashville and Crossville where y'all will get the stronger part of the 1st wave before it weakens to the east. If the second wave does form then y'all would get bonus snow on top of it.

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06z GFS shifted a bit south and east that run, but still managed to drop a big hammer across the region. The snow around Memphis down into Mississippi may be more a mix of precip types. The exact line of the heaviest snow will waffle around with each model run. But the important take away is the major consistency of all model suites showing the storm and the fact that it provides widespread moderate to heavy wintery precip for essentially the entire Tennessee Valley.

 

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6z GEFS mean qpf is plentiful.

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6z GEFS mean snowfall is plentiful.

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0z EURO snowfall map is beautiful.

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I got almost ZERO sleep, but who is ready to roll?

So, any guesses when Nashville will issue a Winter Storm Watch, the Euro especially has been unwavering in a good 6" snow for nearly the length of TN for the last seems like 48 hours.

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So, any guesses when Nashville will issue a Winter Storm Watch, the Euro especially has been unwavering in a good 6" snow for nearly the length of TN for the last seems like 48 hours.

I am sure they want to see models converge around which piece of energy to key on. Should be better consensus today (for better or worse). If it's still there today, they will have no choice but to issue in their afternoon package.

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The 6z. NAM is close to a very significant event....might be wrong, but it has been steadfast in a very strong Miller A. Even has the war nose that most bruisers have. Will be interesting to see if other models follow suit.

It definitely has a warm nose, all the way to BNA and all of east TN. But, it's the LR NAM, so.......lol.

There will probably be some pretty crazy clown maps from the NAM at some point today.

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I am sure they want to see models converge around which piece of energy to key on. Should be better consensus today (for better or worse). If it's still there today, they will have no choice but to issue in their afternoon package.

That was what I was thinking too; looks like Memphis already has one hoisted; is the general rule of thumb that it is to be up about 36 hours before an event?

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