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From David Aldrich at WVLT:

Based on 7 AM (12z) runs today...

ECMWF model
8 to 13 inches of snow (some sleet mix suggested here, which would significantly reduce snowfall amounts)

North American Mesoscale (NAM) model
1 to 2 inches of snow on Monday
5 to 7 inches of snow on Tuesday
_______
6 to 9 inches of snow NAM Total for Monday and Tuesday

Global Forecast System (GFS) model
3 to 6 inches of snow on Monday
0.5 to 1.0 inches of snow spread out over three days, namely Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
______
3.5 to 7 inches of snow GFS Total for the week

CANADIAN model
4 to 8 inches of snow for Monday

Stay tuned. All of this WILL change again tomorrow. Surprise, surprise. Need today’s cold front to move in FIRST, in my opinion, before these hyper models settle down...or crank it up. Be sure to watch Meteorologist John Carroll tonight at 6 PM and 11 PM. I'll be in the Weather Center with John on Sunday.
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MRX

 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF COLD...SUBFREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH POTENTIALLY SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM A 700 MB
JET WILL HELP TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. ALL MODELS SOLUTIONS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES SHOW THIS SITUATION...THE NAM BEING SLIGHTLY DRIER ON
THE INITIAL ROUND OF QPF MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN
PARTICULAR HAVE COME MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS OF SHOWING SNOW /WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS/ MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU RECEIVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH THE
EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. STILL...WIDESPREAD
MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...WITH 3
TO 6 INCHES /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ THROUGHOUT THE
VALLEY...AND 6-10 INCHES /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/. GIVEN THE COLD...SUBFREEZING AIR THAT WILL HAVE BEEN IN
PLACE FOR 24-36 HOURS...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE.
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRIER SNOW...WITH
RATIOS OF 13:1 OR 14:1 BEING COMMON. THIS FACTOR COULD LEAD TO EVEN
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP.
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...BUT LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COULD
SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BEFORE
THINGS TAPER OFF. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS COULD LINGER ON THE GROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS....RESULTING
IN HUGE SOCIETAL IMPACT POTENTIALLY. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE
AND ALL OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM 06Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. AS
MENTIONED THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND COOLER PERIOD ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
WANTS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A LOT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...GIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AND SOME SLEET/ICE TO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER...HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL SNOW FORECAST FOR MOST OF TUESDAY
FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OVERALL...THINK THAT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DEFINITELY BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN MONDAY. BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR SO IF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION TRENDS FURTHER WEST. MODELS
SHOW A STRONG COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THINGS CLEAR
OFF BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...A RARITY FOR OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS! THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO REINFORCE ANY SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND KEEP UNTREATED
ROADS SLICK AND ICY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE FOCUSED MOST OF THE DETAIL IN THE NEXT 4
TO 5 DAYS.

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well now I'm getting nervous. Looks like im slowly starting to trend out of the good stuff. Just have to hope things trend slightly cooler for my area I suppose, or just plain end up verifying colder.

I am going to be stuck in Chatt all week...It looks okay right now...Sometimes the edge is the best place to be as you can really cash in if you stay all snow.  

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I am going to be stuck in Chatt all week...It looks okay right now...Sometimes the edge is the best place to be as you can really cash in if you stay all snow.  

that sometimes is what I'm worried about lol. I have seen it go both ways before. Chattanooga has gotten very lucky in recent years though. I would love to see Nashville get plastered though. They have waited too long.

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On the meteogram and sref I was quoting the averages

 

Cobb is just a snow algorithm that is applied to the NAM and GFS text output, that Iowa state site has another snow algorithm "Max T Prof".  SREF is a different suite of models altogether.  So it's reasonable that the meteograms show different amounts for different models.

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Just glanced at the euro ensembles for TYS.  ALL members are over 6 inches, 35 are over 10 inches for the 15 day period.  That is just freaking insane for this area.

Yeah I really expect when MRX updates to Winter Storm Warning, they'll also up snow totals from their 3-6 they are advertising.  I think they are still being conservative and rightfully so, but there is so much data screaming that 6-10" is more appropriate for storm totals at this point.  When SREF means are at 10", I have to ask myself why they say 6" as a high end, other than playing for more time and models, to up the totals closer to event start time.

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Of the multiple could have been events that have failed to resolve this winter, I have spent the better part of the past week on the extreme side of cautious optimism. However, at 36 hours out, the synoptics show a storm that should be a real producer. The model consensus continues to look like a winner. You can never rule out a bust, but at this point, if the I-40 corridor was to miss out on a significant accumulation of snow, I'd have to say a non-event would go down as one of the worst model performances in recent memory, if not the biggest winter bust the Mid-south, more specifically the state of Tennessee has seen in recent memory. To be more precise, I think if you want snow and you live anywhere near I-40 from Little Rock to Asheville, you're going to have a banner week.

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