Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does it look like the line is already starting to pivot ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Interesting: http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/01/28/sprj.ww04.winter.storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 While it looks like the RAP/HRRR will probably nail the location, there could be more than what the snow maps are showing. Parts of SNJ into CNJ could receive over half a foot I think.....interesting read Snowgoose.....this one could spare Boston the worst. However, I don't think even NYC really gets in on this, do you? Long Island yes, but not the city or nearby NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's cool that you can see the SLP on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 While it looks like the RAP/HRRR will probably nail the location, there could be more than what the snow maps are showing. Parts of SNJ into CNJ could receive over half a foot I think Lol, doubt it I'm lookign at the radar, it's moving to fast for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To me it is looking that central NJ is going to do the best, then off to eastern LI. The RAP seems to support this too. then off to eastern li... What exactly does that mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Never saw a 1-4 inch event be analyzed so rigoursly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Never saw a 1-4 inch event be analyzed so rigourslyTell me about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To me it is looking that central NJ is going to do the best, then off to eastern LI. The RAP seems to support this too. Mitchel - always appreciate your insights here. Just curious if you would include central Jersey north of the Raritan, up to say 78 in Middlesex and Somerset (I'm in the Edison area) in that assessment. And are you speaking about doing best from the inverted trough later tonight or the incoming squall line or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Never saw a 1-4 inch event be analyzed so rigoursly How do you know it's 1-4??? Clearly this event is not being modeled correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cloudy, winds starting to pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the 0z RAP & HRRR verify...the snow will basically never make it up to Long Island & NYC...which, amazingly, will once again verify AG3's 1st Iron Rule of Forecasting....that the RGEM is absolutely deadly inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's cool that you can see the SLP on radar. Looks like 30 - 45 mins of mod - heavy snow into cnj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Agree. There is some great lift that will come right through the slot. This pivot is prob right through LI into KNYC. I'm not convinced. Obviously a long way to go and think we get some snow but the best clearly looks to be sliding underneath KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the 0z RAP & HRRR verify...the snow will basically never make it up to Long Island & NYC...which, amazingly, will once again verify AG3's 1st Iron Rule of Forecasting....that the RGEM is absolutely deadly inside 24 hours. 0z NAM just pulled the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the 0z RAP & HRRR verify...the snow will basically never make it up to Long Island & NYC...which, amazingly, will once again verify AG3's 1st Iron Rule of Forecasting....that the RGEM is absolutely deadly inside 24 hours. Agreed. Just shocked how bad the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So my dusting is all I get? Talk about disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If the 0z RAP & HRRR verify...the snow will basically never make it up to Long Island & NYC...which, amazingly, will once again verify AG3's 1st Iron Rule of Forecasting....that the RGEM is absolutely deadly inside 24 hours. I was shocked when I saw the RGEM at 12z compared to the 6z. Nearly IDENTICAL with the band over SNJ. After that, the HRRR followed through with that idea. Probably up to an inch more for many of us in and around NYC. In the philly forum, they have received 2 inches in 30 minutes. No way people's don't get over 6 inches down there. Quite a disappointment here in NENJ and I'm not willing to put on the "ignore the models!!" snow goggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Careful what you wish for...we wished this south and it sure went south!!! We may not verify Upton's "minimum" snowfall forecast... anyone remember what that was for the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm not convinced. Obviously a long way to go and think we get some snow but the best clearly looks to be sliding underneath KNYC. The wild card Is the IVT. I just like it where the Euro GEM and GFS have it. We always run the risk of being " jumped " with miller B s But this break was modeled and I think the IVT does show up. But I see your concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Careful what you wish for...we wished this south and it sure went south!!! We may not verify Upton's "minimum" snowfall forecast... anyone remember what that was for the blizzard? If this doesn't verify, that's another major bust for them after pulling the stops out and issuing a Blizzard Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam says no snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z NAM just pulled the plug. The GEM LAM had a miss about 4 runs in a row...and I'm like...this is weird...because the GEM LAM is the model I trust most...and will probably continue to in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well at least we have the potential mid week unless it stays offshore per current models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The wild card Is the IVT. I just like it where the Euro GEM and GFS have it. We always run the risk of being " jumped " with miller B s But this break was modeled and I think the IVT does show up. But I see your concern As Phil mentioned earlier, the IVT may set up where that approaching squall line near Allentown stalls and pivots, I think that is the hope for the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Careful what you wish for...we wished this south and it sure went south!!! We may not verify Upton's "minimum" snowfall forecast... anyone remember what that was for the blizzard? Lol you are correct it sure did go south! For some reason this one has me just as disappointed as the blizzard! Before the blizzard I just knew something wasn't right. This one, until the RGEM confirmed and the HRRR remained consistent, I really thought it might over perform. We need the southern stream (and Tuesday I'm sure will go SOUTH) lol it's comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Careful what you wish for...we wished this south and it sure went south!!! We may not verify Upton's "minimum" snowfall forecast... anyone remember what that was for the blizzard? Heh, some of you folks' seasonal totals may fall short of Upton's range for the blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nam basically cancels the storm for SNE also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, one things for sure, the gfs was off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.