jdt Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dude just relax. This was just the initial wave. The show is between midnite and 6. There will b lightning in spots later . .3 to 6 may fall west to east with good ratios away from the wind, 50 kt wind gusts and your temp will tumble. Some in NWNJ and somers are reporting 2 inches already. It just getting underway. I was at 1.3" at about 4pm. probably over by 1.5" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ah ok gotcha.....it's surprising again how consistent the RGEM has been with its last couple runs and the HRRR with its last 7 runs as well as the NAM pretty similar (though north some) with the 3-6" area well south of here.....pretty hard to think that it's completely wrong, though we hope it is! Forky actually made a good call last night saying that the band should develop further south than proggedI'm hoping we split the difference and the heaviest is from the Poconos to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The arctic front does look impressive. The snow amounts still feel like a guessing game. our hope is to get into the whiplash of the inverted trough. i'm skeptical but open minded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The HRRR is suggesting that the arctic front / inverted trough (with associated heavy snowfall rates) could stall and pivot over NYC. Definitely something to keep an eye on! Could lead to a local maxima in precipitation. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The HRRR is suggesting that the arctic front / inverted trough (with associated heavy snowfall rates) could stall and pivot over NYC per the latest HRRR guidance. Definitely something to keep an eye on! Could lead to a local maxima in precipitation. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php Going to be a large screw zone that gets nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The last RAP brings good snows back over LI after 9 or 10 PM tonight and continues them into the wee hours of the morning...as one would figure...given the synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Going to be a large screw zone that gets nothing Looks like that would be west of Union County. North and South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Let's keep the obs in the obs thread, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Man o man don't I love that HRRR map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The last RAP brings good snows back over LI after 9 or 10 PM tonight and continues them into the wee hours of the morning...as one would figure...given the synoptic setup. I mean if a sub 1000 mb surface feature moves south across the NY Bight and south of LI with an arctic air mass in place...it would be practically impossible for it *not* to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like that would be west of Union County. North and South. in the grand scheme of things if that's anywhere close to being right, i'd be reasonably happy with your location.... as it'll catch you later, if not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The HRRR is suggesting that the arctic front / inverted trough (with associated heavy snowfall rates) could stall and pivot over NYC. Definitely something to keep an eye on! Could lead to a local maxima in precipitation. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php How come surface precip maps look terrible in NNJ/NYC while southern NJ up to parts of central NJ get hammered? Hopefully there's something I'm missing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like secondary low developing just south west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The only real reason long island has a blizzard warning and nyc does not is because the wind will only be 30mph or so in nyc and in long Island it will be 35+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How come surface precip maps look terrible in NNJ/NYC while southern NJ up to parts of central NJ get hammered? Hopefully there's something I'm missing lol The single image shown here only depicts frongenetical forcing for ascent at 925-hPa. Since baroclinic zones are tilted, frontogenesis at other layers of the atmosphere likely do no occur superimposed on the same location, but tilted further upstream along the cold front aloft. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php In order to understand what regions can get the best forcing for ascent to produce significant snowfall, you want forcing that occurs over a deep column through the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -18C typically). Note that in this case when you see the frontogenesis evolve from 925 to 850 hPa, the forcing for ascent tilts southwestward... so that while the 925-hPa frontgenesis is maximized over NYC, the 850-hPa frontogenesis is tilted southwest towards central and southern NJ. This could help explain why they seem to have the most precipitation since a deeper column of frontogenetical ascent exists there. The best 925-hPa frontogenesis occurs just on the edge of the best dendritic growth (-8 to -12C), but the best 850-hPa frontogenesis occurs right in the middle (-12 to -18 C). This could be why it seems like central and southern NJ jackpot relative to folks further north and east. 925-hPa fgen 850-hPa fgen 1-km Reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Beautiful fluff falling dudes nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thank you for the excellent explanation Phil! I really appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gotta say,radar doesn't look impressive in NYC,but omg, it's just sitting out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Epic reports in mid atlantic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The squall line extends all the way up into the Syracuse area. The State College radar isn't doing a great job of showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Did my best here but this what I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 look at the latest mesoscale surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to see severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of the area that aren't covered by the High Wind Warning should the squall remain in intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gotta say,radar doesn't look impressive in NYC,but omg, it's just sitting out here!radar hallucinations already come on guy. the other low is near maryland working its way up. nyc should be back in it with 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Excited down here in Philly, this is gonna be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Radar really blowing up over eastern va and md. Perhaps a little sweet revenge for the jebman fella. Looks to be moving into philly and s. Nj very soon. Pretty heavy echoes Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 radar hallucinations already come on guy. the other low is near maryland working its way up. nyc sheould be back in it with 3-4 hours. I know it's early I'm jest comparing it to long island at moment, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Upton updated maps I do believe the 6-8 live was extended west more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Obviously going to be big in SNJ into CNJ : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Upton updated maps I do believe the 6-8 live was extended west more That was there for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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