RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll cry if that squall line disintegrates and that blossoming batch of precip heading towards Philly/Trenton slides by just to our southeast, staying south of the Raritan - looks like a close call. I know it's not just about watching existing radar returns and gauging their movement, i.e., precip bands will be generated under the right conditions where no precip previously was falling, but I also hate seeing existing bands miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The rap and HRR showed the collapse perfectly they did and also predicted the snows south of the city... this will not be a good storm for NYC but about 10-20 miles south, a completely different story.. oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is really going as modeled by the short terms, unfortunately. No reason to ignore them at this point. Not being negative, it's just how the cookie (or snow chances) crumbles. Altogether, those areas down there deserve some snow so it's not a complete loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RELAX. The RAP and HRRR are wrong . Click on the MT HOLLY RADAR. It's coming. As my boy Josh would say. credit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is going be a big bust for areas north of I-78. Hopefully we can pull out another inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That squall line appears to be strengthening again.. Maybe interaction with the strengthening coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RELAX. The RAP and HRRR are wrong . Click on the MT HOLLY RADAR. It's coming. As my boy Josh would say. credit . Respectfully have to disagree. The radar matches the models for the most part. The precip crosses into NJ then sags south and east. I don't think any of us south of Monmouth do well at all with this, and looking at the radar loop it's quite evident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 RELAX. The RAP and HRRR are wrong . Click on the MT HOLLY RADAR. It's coming. As my boy Josh would say. credit . This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Is that a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Not if the short terms have their way lol.. Barely a snow shower left on those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not if the short terms have their way lol.. Barely a snow shower left on those New srefs crush NYC metro with the IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New srefs crush NYC metro with the IVT. Oh I dont doubt it and believe me I hope it happens, I'm just saying the short terms are awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is this thing just falling apart here, looks like Suffolk county is a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New srefs crush NYC metro with the IVT. Not sure if 0.25" qpf is crushing but the way today has been turning out, I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is this thing just falling apart here, looks like Suffolk county is a bust. It's coming, just wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not sure if 0.25" qpf is crushing but the way today has been turning out, I would take it. It's more then .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 New srefs crush NYC metro with the IVT.It's not great once you get 20 miles NW and he's more like 80 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Is this thing just falling apart here, looks like Suffolk county is a bust. The coastal hasnt even gotten started yet...heavy snow/wind wasn't expected till after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Don't remember that date and what happened?? Do tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not great once you get 20 miles NW and he's more like 80 miles NW. City srefs for my area are 13/22 show .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is gonna go 1/28/2004 on us here shortly, hang in there. Agree. There is some great lift that will come right through the slot. This pivot is prob right through LI into KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I dont know why people cant be patient. We ARE adults. Please take a seep breath and just LOOK a tthe radars please & simply project from there. You dont know need two PHDS in physics and Met. to understand things will be MUCH improved within than less than 2 hours. Plus you do see lightening off the Delmarva and understand what that means rright? so... Breathe.... DEEPLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Respectfully have to disagree. The radar matches the models for the most part. The precip crosses into NJ then sags south and east. I don't think any of us south of Monmouth do well at all with this, and looking at the radar loop it's quite evident My comments were aimed at KNYC and L I crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The coastal hasnt even gotten started yet...heavy snow/wind wasn't expected till after midnight. This^^...everyone needs to wait a couple of hours before they claim bust. The low hasn't even gotten off shore yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 famartin made a great point on the Philly forum - that the squall line never really weakened, but rather it just passed through an area with poor radar coverage. Looks pretty healthy again - don't think we're usually caring that much about snow squall lines in Central PA - it's usually way more about bands approaching from coastal storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 City srefs for my area are 13/22 show .50+That includes the threat middle week. Tonight you're under 0.25" up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I dont know why people cant be patient. We ARE adults. Please take a seep breath and just LOOK a tthe radars please & simply project from there. You dont know need two PHDS in physics and Met. to understand things will be MUCH improved within than less than 2 hours. Plus you do see lightening off the Delmarva and understand what that means rright? so... Breathe.... DEEPLY! I think most of us are just relaying what the models say lol... I Wasn't expecting much to begin with so it doesn't matter to me where the norlun sets in, the short terms are pretty bad that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That includes the threat middle week. Tonight you're under 0.25" up there. 14/22 ens have Newburgh at .35+ and 9 of those are over .50. Which is the 6hr not the whole run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 To me it is looking that central NJ is going to do the best, then off to eastern LI. The RAP seems to support this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I dont know why people cant be patient. We ARE adults. Please take a seep breath and just LOOK a tthe radars please & simply project from there. You dont know need two PHDS in physics and Met. to understand things will be MUCH improved within than less than 2 hours. Plus you do see lightening off the Delmarva and understand what that means rright? so... Breathe.... DEEPLY! this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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