LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Cobb output is 12-15:1 ratios for many locations in NC with Monday snow. Wow. Adding a 1.5 multiplier to the QPF totals would be great. That can turn .5 inches QPF to 7.5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 brad p's latest thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The bar graphs for the EPS are now out. Looks like a little over 6" at GSO. Do note that there's another threat that the EPS is picking up on around D9 that shoots the mean snowfall towards 8", but that is irrelevant. KGSO: 6.1" KCLT: 6.5" KPGV: 6" KRDU: 6.75" KFAY: 6" KMWK: 5" (Mt. Airy) KAVL: 7" KGSP: 7" KCAE: 3.9" KATL: 3.6" Keep in mind some of that might not be snow, and probably isn't, especially for areas S/E. For GSO, MWK, etc., it probably is all-snow or close to it, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gfs maybe a tad quicker/wetter thru 48. lets see where it goes with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gfs maybe a tad quicker/wetter thru 48. lets see where it goes with the first wave. Baja low a hair stronger and more interaction with the PJ by 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The bar graphs for the EPS are now out. Looks like a little over 6" at GSO. Do note that there's another threat that the EPS is picking up on around D9 that shoots the mean snowfall towards 8", but that is irrelevant. KGSO: 6.1" KCLT: 6.5" KPGV: 6" KRDU: 6.75" KFAY: 6" KMWK: 5" (Mt. Airy) KAVL: 7" KGSP: 7" KCAE: 3.9" KATL: 3.6" Keep in mind some of that might not be snow, and probably isn't, especially for areas S/E. For GSO, MWK, etc., it probably is all-snow or close to it, however. Thanks for posting. Are the numbers based on a 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 is Asheville going to get any snow this go around Chris Justus put out an update 20 mins ago. You have to like where we are sitting with any model. https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusMeteorologist/posts/734873526610007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Kavl 7 inches wow I'll take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM, has its issues, as we all know, but I do like what its doing with temps at 2m. Makes MUCH more sense with a VERY DRY air mass initially, and then it locks it in and enhances the cold pool. Even down to Macon. EURO is VERY close around here as well. NAM does have some IP/ZR here, EURO is like 3 degrees or so from it. This is going to be a VERY tight fit. But its the best shot we have had all freakin' year. NAM, has its issues, as we all know, but I do like what its doing with temps at 2m. Makes MUCH more sense with a VERY DRY air mass initially, and then it locks it in and enhances the cold pool. Even down to Macon. EURO is VERY close around here as well. NAM does have some IP/ZR here, EURO is like 3 degrees or so from it. This is going to be a VERY tight fit. But its the best shot we have had all freakin' year. Yeah, my spot forecast is going with 32 and rain Tuesday night, lol. I guess they think freezing rain, but they don't say it Lot of bet hedging going on, and well there should be. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Awesome! 8 inch agreement here with two more systems to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 wetter thru 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 HR 69 GFS looks like maybe even a tick better? Looks like that baja low really wants to eject out. Maybe a tad east comparing 69 and 75 hr panels from 12z to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Folks, you need to realize your local national weather service will always remain super conservative until it's beyond obvious. This is how they have always been and will always be, stop fretting over what they are saying at this point. They definitely do that. Their official forecast right now for GSP is for more snow than anything else. Even with what they're calling for at this time, from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning sounds pretty exciting to say the least. Sounds like this could indeed be a long duration event kinda like last year. I couldn't believe that one was as long as it was, but I'll take another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 not as suppressed this run, no snow into nc but it is close, almost to the sc/nc border thru 81. snowing in north ga and upper sc at 78hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely going to be a stronger second wave on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This may get good here at 75 that western energy is really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 here we go at 84, snowing in nc. gonna be a good run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely going to be a stronger second wave on the 18z This ain't missing south, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Major storm brewing on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just hoping our HP doesn't slide out too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 out to 90, snowing in nc big time west to east, mix around upper sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pacific hose got turned on with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow! Finally that baja low did its thing and it is interacting big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By 93 hrs our HP slid out into the ocean. Temps are marginal for NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS really warm... Rain for everyone south of i40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SLP tracking over ATL. Very UKie type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks a little warm to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 maybe some mixing issues south of 40 at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ffc/graphicast/image_full5.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's a raging snow storm for folks N of 85. Just east of there will be a stripe of mix from CLT to GSO. This is still inline with what the ensembles have been showing... all depends how much of that baja energy is entrained into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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