Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bob--how'd things finish up out there for you today? That was an impressive band! ~18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 ~18" That's awesome. If that spin-up you just posted could be on Montauk or Block, I 'd be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The flow is open... and rather compressed, with deep geopotential height medium amid the broad cyclonic flow, abutting/producing lots of gradient on the south and east aspects of the L/W; quite naturally this means fast flow. These open wave/inflection type lows will tend to exceed the modeling in translation timing ...starting and ending both before the consensus would have it. That might atone for some of the switching from Wed more toward Tues... Also, keying in on perhaps earlier impulses in the flow. Also, because of the progressive nature, the amounts would probably be less, if perhaps offset by the fact that unlike the previous four events, this one has a south or quasi-south origin being that it is more intermediate/southern stream in origin. That latter fact means that it will innately bring a higher PWAT availability with it... So a take and give there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 The flow is open... and rather compressed, with deep geopotential height medium amid the broad cyclonic flow, abutting/producing lots of gradient on the south and east aspects of the L/W; quite naturally this means fast flow. These open wave/inflection type lows will tend to exceed the modeling in translation timing ...starting and ending both before the consensus would have it. That might atone for some of the switching from Wed more toward Tues... Also, keying in on perhaps earlier impulses in the flow. Also, because of the progressive nature, the amounts would probably be less, if perhaps offset by the fact that unlike the previous four events, this one has a south or quasi-south origin being that it is more intermediate/southern stream in origin. That latter fact means that it will innately bring a higher PWAT availability with it... So a take and give there - And if the track continues to suck, it's all just academic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Canadian still a scraper, couple inches for southern areas at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie backed off from it's crazy solution last night but is still the most bullish of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 FYI gfs MAV has the following snow numbers: BOS: 6 ORH: 4 BDL: 2 PVD: 4 PYM: 8 Moving towards a bigger hit run by run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And if the track continues to suck, it's all just academic. Man you're bitter but yeah... academic or not, still the points are useful... Because should it then come west in the near term and be more likely to impact, those aspects are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie backed off from it's crazy solution last night but is still the most bullish of the guidance. What crazy solution - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 What crazy solution - Widespread warning criteria last night on it's 0z run. 12z run looks much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie backed off from it's crazy solution last night but is still the most bullish of the guidance. I thought it looked similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah it's definitely stepped down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I thought it looked similar. 0z 12z Still a very nice event on the 12z but a defined shift east for sure. Much closer to consensus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Concensus is starting to move twds a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Concensus is starting to move twds a big hit How so most models are scrapers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Concensus is starting to move twds a big hit Huh? Consensus is moving towards a general 2-4 or 3-6 inches... Basically a dusting compared to what is currently on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Huh? Consensus is moving towards a general 2-4 or 3-6 inches... Basically a dusting compared to what is currently on the ground Yea most definitely.... Unless something big changes it will just be a minor event from Philly to Boston and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not expecting much. Maybe a couple inches at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Huh? Consensus is moving towards a general 2-4 or 3-6 inches... Basically a dusting compared to what is currently on the ground He always does that ... swoops in and makes some post that is precisely the opposite of what the trends/consensus are/is. Not sure if that is deliberate for fanning hype flames, or if he's just a lovable moron - but it is what it is... Also, that 00z UKMET solution would be hard pressed to be a widespread warning... That's 10 MM ... that's millimeters, which converts to ~ .4" liq eg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 He always does that ... swoops in and makes some post that is precisely the opposite of what the trends/consensus are/is. Not sure if that is deliberate for fanning hype flames, or if he's just a lovable moron - but it is what it is... Also, that 00z UKMET solution would be hard pressed to be a widespread warning... That's 10 MM ... that's millimeters, which converts to ~ .4" liq eg. 10-15 mm = 0.4-0.6 at 15-20:1 ratios(per BOX discussion) = 6-12" in 12 hours = warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Don't these southern streamers tend to correct to the left over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Canadian still a scraper, couple inches for southern areas at best. Yeah, the Canadian did so well with this last one, lol. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GEFS not bad looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think it ends up as a quick hitting several inches of snow. Pedestrian by this years standards but impactful given the incredible depth and piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd probably lean in the 2-4 range for BOS-HFD line and SE...perhaps we could get a weenie band near the Cape or south coast of RI...C-2 NW of that. I do think that 2nd bit of energy will induce some additional inverted trough snows on Wednesday...but probably this will mostly accumulate in the NNE mountains, but maybe an inch or so down in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd probably lean in the 2-4 range for BOS-HFD line and SE...perhaps we could get a weenie band near the Cape or south coast of RI...C-2 NW of that. I do think that 2nd bit of energy will induce some additional inverted trough snows on Wednesday...but probably this will mostly accumulate in the NNE mountains, but maybe an inch or so down in our area. Best part.barely look at day 11-15, too busy near term but then again same old story same old song and dance my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 10-15 mm = 0.4-0.6 at 15-20:1 ratios(per BOX discussion) = 6-12" in 12 hours = warning criteria. except 10MM was bound by Extreme SE mass and Cape cod. so for Cape cod the most bullish model with great ratio's shows 6-12. So nothing is showing a bit hit, that I can see I'm glad its not rain, and we just add to the pack. If you really stop and think about this period, it Is mind blowing in So many ways .....no thaws...Pow Pow after Pow Pow inside I-95....-10 below ave for the month, beating all time monthly record in half the month of February. Far and away thou, I Can't Comprehend how has a Boston top 3 winter , when they were below 6" on Jan 23. It's Feb 15'th for Christ's sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 except 10MM was bound by Extreme SE mass and Cape cod. so for Cape cod the most bullish model with great ratio's shows 6-12. So nothing is showing a bit hit, that I can see They were talking about the 00z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 He always does that ... swoops in and makes some post that is precisely the opposite of what the trends/consensus are/is. Not sure if that is deliberate for fanning hype flames, or if he's just a lovable moron - but it is what it is... The SOP when it starts to look worse is just toss a rogue post out there about how good things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The SOP when it starts to look worse is just toss a rogue post out there about how good things look. What do you think about the IVT look for VT this week? You are better versed in Green Mountain climo than me..I'll be up at KMart. It looks like Wendesday and Wed night could be decent fluff up in the Greens. I know the central Greens aren't the same as the northern Greens...but they can act somewhat similar at times. Seems like several inches of fluff is a decent possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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