PDIII Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Mobile, cannot get to model run, does it make it north of DC toward Baltimore? Here ... Click on this link.. This will get you past the crappy non mobile friendly menu on instantweathermaps... Then once you are there create a desktop shortcut using your menu... This will create an app icon on your phone.... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015021318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This storm is going to rely on two things (IMO)....1) Does/How fast that baja energy phases 2) Once/If it does, how long does it take for the trough to go from positive to neutral. On the 18z run you can see the trough go from positive to neutral between 90 & 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think this 18z GFS run is that surprising given the GEFS have generally been north of the southern solutions. Strange that we had a favorable turn of events on the OP run inside of 100 hours though given our track record this winter. I wish we had detailed ukie 500 vort panels. I'm curious to how it is coming up with its solution. Precip/pressure panels look like it leaves the baja energy behind. Must be because it sees the lead vort being amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 not even remotely close to mixing...temps at DCA 26-27 whole event You made a really good post earlier today. We probably won't know how this will play out until around Sunday when all the players get within the area where we have raobs. Even then, the northern stream can be dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If it goes sub zero and we get less than two inches I am killing myselfI don't think I'd predict subzero for DC until it was 3 at midnight. Haven't looked but can only assume it's the snow cover problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not what anyone wants to hear, but we may have even trended north too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For future reference, we need someone to always make a definitive dare statement to the storm after a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 If it goes sub zero and we get less than two inches I am killing myself http://www.amazon.com/Quicken-WillMaker-Plus-2014-Software/dp/1413319432/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1423866263&sr=1-1&keywords=how+to+make+a+will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 For future reference, we need someone to always make a definitive dare statement to the storm after a bad run. ...and then rub it in their face afterward by bringing it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't someone post that 18z gfs was 2nd most accurate gfs run due to new data fed into that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think I'd predict subzero for DC until it was 3 at midnight. Haven't looked but can only assume it's the snow cover problem. Potomac would need to be frozen. It might be partially to mostly come Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not what anyone wants to hear, but we may have even trended north too early. that's why I posted "meh...too early" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Didn't someone post that 18z gfs was 2nd most accurate gfs run due to new data fed into that model?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty good run. Too bad it's 18z! I'm just making fun of people who tossed 18z yday and will hug it today.. 18z has been leading the shifts lately. 0z usually looks similar overall. As soon as I saw the baja energy get absorbed I got a little excited. Only way to knock the confluence is a stronger storm. Might be a west track at 0z. I know that Ian was kidding, but I think it was das (and if not, then maybe Chris with the red tag) that said the 18z gfs was actually scoring the best. And I'm just saying and not suggesting that this is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This storm is going to rely on two things (IMO)....1) Does/How fast that baja energy phases 2) Once/If it does, how long does it take for the trough to go from positive to neutral. On the 18z run you can see the trough go from positive to neutral between 90 & 102 hours I honestly think you guys have had it worse than us this year... You all were real close and it was the euro for Christ sake... In its deadly zone... The bust was so bad DT left the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I wish we had detailed ukie 500 vort panels. I'm curious to how it is coming up with its solution. Precip/pressure panels look like it leaves the baja energy behind. Must be because it sees the lead vort being amped up. I think you're right. Looking at the Meteocentre 500 panels through 72, I don't see any piece of the baja energy coming out and phasing with the NS sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not what anyone wants to hear, but we may have even trended north too early. The trend was caused by a stronger storm. A weak storm wouldn't be able to turn the corner in time with h5 looking like that. I think there's a limit to how far nw it could possibly go and I think that's overhead right now. I posted earlier that I thought the goal posts for the track was overhead to a near miss off of obx. Near miss meaning close whiff that would make me sick. Overhead would be snow to rain. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know that Ian was kidding, but I think it was das (and if not, then maybe Chris with the red tag) that said the 18z gfs was actually scoring the best. And I'm just saying and not suggesting that this is right. I don't think it really matters at this range.. It's wrong you just hope it's minimally wrong I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 that's why I posted "meh...too early" On the plus side, the Euro would require significant jumps compared to its typical ways of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The trend was caused by a stronger storm. A weak storm wouldn't be able to turn the corner in time with h5 looking like that. I think there's a limit to how far nw it could possibly go and I think that's overhead right now. I posted earlier that I thought the goal posts for the track was overhead to a near miss off of obx. Near miss meaning close whiff that would make me sick. Overhead would be snow to rain. I'm good with that. I was just gonna say ... Nice N/NW trend, but I hope we're not talking about a rainstorm come Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 someone posted the stats dude...this ain't coming out of my ass lolMaybe it is but doesn't change the fact everyone wanted to punt it yesterday because it was 18z and now it's the opposite. Should at least try to pretend to be an honest broker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On the plus side, the Euro would require significant jumps compared to its typical ways of life.it made one last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Se board having a meltdown If meltdowns were inches, we'd be buried. I don't think it really matters at this range.. It's wrong you just hope it's minimally wrong I guess. Yeah, I get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 fwiw, GFS is zr/sleet at SBY but all snow at Cambridge we'll see how much and how often that changes in the next 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maybe it is but doesn't change the fact everyone wanted to punt it yesterday because it was 18z and now it's the opposite. Should at least try to pretend to be an honest broker. not everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maybe it is but doesn't change the fact everyone wanted to punt it yesterday because it was 18z and now it's the opposite. Should at least try to pretend to be an honest broker.nobody punted it last night. There was a severe panic attack by the board. you might be confusing The 84 hour nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, the 18Z GFS is frigid through day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 not everyone I just didn't want to marry it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ...and then rub it in their face afterward by bringing it up I am trying to hold my tongue, lol. ;-) Still, the odds that THIS is the final solution are close to nil, and no one should be celebrating or moaning yet. We could still whiff easily, or even get a slightly better solution. I suspect we are a good 48 hours away from really narrowing the envelope down to where we can start to be more definitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, the 18Z GFS is frigid through day 8. and gives a snowstorm in the deep south if they're going to ever get one, this is the pattern that would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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