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Baroclinic Zone

January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

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4 of the 6 reporting sites on the cape were sustained 40+ last hour

 

FALMOUTH       SNOW      30  28  93 NE45G56   29.41F VSB 1/4 WCI  12

PROVINCETOWN   CLOUDY    30  28  93 NE40G56   29.53F VSB 1/4 WCI  13

NANTUCKET      LGT SNOW  33  31  92 NE53G66   29.31F VSB 1   WCI  15

MARTHAS VNYRD  FOG       29  27  92 N43G61    29.35F VSB 1/2 WCI  11

 

 

 

Falmouth is to my SW more inland several miles.  I'm at about 50 mph sustained and having gusts in the mid 60s. 

 

This is approaching 2005 now in terms of winds etc.  Freaking crazy. 

 

Box radar is fascinating -  seeing a pinch as the stuff west drifts east and everything else pivots up.  Should see 2, 3, 4" per hour rates over EM, RI, parts of CT.

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Maybe more a mixture of multiple levels of forcing back there? Idk

 

unless I'm wrong but what you just posted of the H7 fronto makes sense it's H7 related...I think the best banding occurs typically just on the western fringe of the fronto.  

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Jesus, not even a dry slot at ACK! Check those echoes out flowing over ACK from the se, Raul....incredible.

Are they still snow?

 

 

those echoes se of ACK are freaking impressive..they are going to get demolished

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unless I'm wrong but what you just posted of the H7 fronto makes sense it's H7 related...I think the best banding occurs typically just on the western fringe of the fronto.  

Makes sense, didn't know that.

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FWIW 6z RGEM joined ALL of the other models, by 12z and into tomorrow it's a consolidated low. 

 

From 6z to 18z, 25mm+ from the band over Kev to Will to just off the coast of ME ...but only 5-10mm along the coast after 1pm.  So it's still exiting faster than the others.  We'll see, doesn't seem unreasonable.

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Box AFD 340am update saying don't go to sleep:

 

Very intense mesoscale band setting up across north CT through central/NE Massachusetts associated with the strengthening middle level frontogenesis with the deepening middle level low producing strong Omega through the dendritic growth zone. Probably seeing 2-4"/hour snowfall rates in this band. Meanwhile...pulses of heavier snow
bands which are convective in nature continue to move from the ocean across southeast Massachusetts. Very heavy cluster over the islands will be moving up across southeast Massachusetts next 1-2 hours. Middle level lapse rates over 6 c/km across southeast new eng suggesting potential for upright convection and thunder snow. Snowfall rates 2-3"/hour will be developing in southeast Massachusetts and portions of Cape Cod.

How these bands evolve today will be critical to the snowfall forecast and this will be tricky. GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep the best middle level frontogenesis across east Massachusetts while NAM is further west across central Massachusetts into CT. NAM seems to be handling this the best and keep this band in the same general area before weakening and moving east. Meanwhile...low level convergence and frontogenesis associated with the coastal front across southeast Massachusetts will result in a secondary maximum in eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod with occasional heavy snow.

We have only made slight modifications to the snow accumulate...lowering slightly in the Berkshires and increasing across Cape Cod...especially near the canal. Still looking for maximum snowfall across NE CT through central Massachusetts...with secondary maximum across east Massachusetts to the Cape Cod canal. Around 2 feet expected in this area...locally 30-36 inches possible where persistent bands set up. Lesser amounts in between bands.

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This is a dream come true.

 

I don't think I'm going to b*tch again all winter.

 

If the RGEM is right and for the most part this is over at about lunch...wow.  Seems odd and it's the b&w graphics.  Low position looked good for onshore bands at 1pm.

 

WIth what is coming together for this next 5-9 hours...we shouldn't complain.

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Wow, Totals from ORH and Boston are horrific. In the 2's 3 hours ago so maybe 3.5 - 4 now. Meanwhile the cap + Plymouth + New Bedford are all at a Foot.

Lol, I wouldn't put too much stock in the Bos reading. Most of us estimated a foot an hour or so ago. Probably well above now.

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By the looks of radar, I have to imagine some towns east of here near I-395 are probably closing in on 20". I'm not even in the thick of this band anymore, but have been seeing steady 2-4" per hour rates.

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