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Baroclinic Zone

January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

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Look at the way that atlantic inflow is meeting the colder air dragging down from maine and spilling over along a convergence zone and the cf... fooking beautiful... there wont be much subsidence I think soon anywhere east of ORH is about to go through an EPIC time period. Don't go to bed folks.

I'm not, going to try to make it all the way through the morning I think. Banking on classes to get cancelled Wednesday as a catchup on sleep day.

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Look at the way that atlantic inflow is meeting the colder air dragging down from maine and spilling over along a convergence zone and the cf... fooking beautiful... there wont be much subsidence I think soon anywhere east of ORH is about to go through an EPIC time period. Don't go to bed folks.

 

Was about too but I absolutely cannot miss this. This could be an all-time band.

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Look at OKX down over LI..It's actually expanding west..though I agree I'm not going to jack

I'm sry dude I was pulling  for everyone but there is gonna be subsidence just west of this beastly band

 

And I think the worst will clearly also be EAST of ORH as this band fills East.

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Was about too but I absolutely cannot miss this. This could be an all-time band.

 

 

I'm not, going to try to make it all the way through the morning I think. Banking on classes to get cancelled Wednesday as a catchup on sleep day.

Cantore will be live from the common in a half hour

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Wow at Seidel, impressive

13.1" in Plymouth per TWC, peak gust 64mph

 

Took a walk, in Brookline good stuff but visibilities better than earlier in the night

 

Per NAM that intense stuff to the southeast continues into Boston metro down to canal?

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RGEM is a very good model, though it can be amped near the periphery of its range.

 

The biggest mystery to me of the last 36 hours is why it was tossed over and over.  Seems to be if the RGEM and Euro are west take it to the bank.  If the Euro is east and the RGEM west, go with the Euro it's the RGEM over amperage, if it's RGEM east, Euro west...with all other models east...go RGEMish.

 

If you are watching Seidel - the airport is way inland in the woods.  He's in a true blue blizzard and will be all night.  The airport may never verify it.

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Cantore will be live from the common in a half hour

He's picked a good time I think.

Can clearly see the band starting to form on radar as those two bands on either side of the city fuse. 

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Wow at Seidel, impressive

13.1" in Plymouth per TWC, peak gust 64mph

 

Took a walk, in Brookline good stuff but visibilities better than earlier in the night

 

Per NAM that intense stuff to the southeast continues into Boston metro down to canal?

 

If you pull up East Bay Grille on your maps that's where he is, he's in the boat ramp lot.  He's also in some of the most intense snows of the night.  Notice he's out of breath?  50mph winds...it's hard to breath it is nuts.

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Interestingly enough SPC mesoanalysis suggests that the deform band to the nw from kev to ray is more 850mb and actually lower than I thought. 700mb is bonkers to it's SE and radar seems to be responding to that.

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The biggest mystery to me of the last 36 hours is why it was tossed over and over.  Seems to be if the RGEM and Euro are west take it to the bank.  If the Euro is east and the RGEM west, go with the Euro it's the RGEM over amperage, if it's RGEM east, Euro west...with all other models east...go RGEMish.

 

If you are watching Seidel - the airport is way inland in the woods.  He's in a true blue blizzard and will be all night.  The airport may never verify it.

For me, I took a compromise, but leaned RGEM/east. Even while the Euro was west, it kept correcting a bit each run. Also, aside from the NAM inconsistency, the GFS was actually fairly consistent on the eastern envelope. Seeing the RGEM spit out 0.5" (near the NY border) where the Euro had about 2" was very unsettling. For NYC area forecasters to go "high confidence" with 24"+ so far in advance was a very, very risky call.

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Tried finding several locations to measure...was coming in with around 6'' but not sure exactly how accurate that really is.  Probably close.  But I was running around outside having fun with myself and my phone flew out of my pocket into the snow...luckily I saw where it fell...I saw the indent 

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Interestingly enough SPC mesoanalysis suggests that the deform band to the nw from kev to ray is more 850mb and actually lower than I thought. 700mb is bonkers to it's SE and radar seems to be responding to that.

Good find Jay

 

That 700 off the charts fronto is WELL SE       E LI over RI to S.shore

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For me, I took a compromise, but leaned RGEM/east. Even while the Euro was west, it kept correcting a bit each run. Also, aside from the NAM inconsistency, the GFS was actually fairly consistent on the eastern envelope. Seeing the RGEM spit out 0.5" (near the NY border) where the Euro had about 2" was very unsettling. For NYC area forecasters to go "high confidence" with 24"+ so far in advance was a very, very risky call.

Euro was so good for so long....  whatever they did with the upgrade they broke something.  I firmly believe that.  It may score the same on all the charts the modelers use...but we all know these last two winters it's not the same.

 

RGEM to me has been the best model for the last two winters.  Also seems to not have the issue with over amping like it did, don't know if they fixed that or not.

 

I have the heat up to 80, it's like a sauna in here, I may have to go lay in the snow for a bit.  Keep thinking power is out for good.

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4 of the 6 reporting sites on the cape were sustained 40+ last hour

 

FALMOUTH       SNOW      30  28  93 NE45G56   29.41F VSB 1/4 WCI  12
PROVINCETOWN   CLOUDY    30  28  93 NE40G56   29.53F VSB 1/4 WCI  13
NANTUCKET      LGT SNOW  33  31  92 NE53G66   29.31F VSB 1   WCI  15
MARTHAS VNYRD  FOG       29  27  92 N43G61    29.35F VSB 1/2 WCI  11
 

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Interestingly enough SPC mesoanalysis suggests that the deform band to the nw from kev to ray is more 850mb and actually lower than I thought. 700mb is bonkers to it's SE and radar seems to be responding to that.

 

Actually I think it's the other way around.  850mb I think is a tad too southeast and not really defined enough for it to be 850...I think it's more with the 700mb low than below

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Interestingly enough SPC mesoanalysis suggests that the deform band to the nw from kev to ray is more 850mb and actually lower than I thought. 700mb is bonkers to it's SE and radar seems to be responding to that.

7h fronto

35ktwrs.png

850 fronto

nwzrpt.png

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Actually I think it's the other way around.  850mb I think is a tad too southeast and not really defined enough for it to be 850...I think it's more with the 700mb low than below

Maybe more a mixture of multiple levels of forcing back there? Idk

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