daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Boston needs more snow. NAEFS is a broken record... I can handle another month of this crap, but god I hope there are some 60Fs in March awaiting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The GFS shows the potential for a possible storm around Feb 21-24th in the region. It'll have to be watched as we get closer. Alot of possibilities exist yet again, but models really weaken the +PNA down around that time frame. So that opens the door for some ridging out ahead of the system and pushes the PV further north. The NAO on the other hand remains positive so an inland track is possible. With this current storm, phasing and improper timing meant we couldn't cash in and this will be a key player for the next system as well. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks for the hopeful words for those of us in Indy and on south to the Ohio Valley with this upcoming storm. SDF has been talking about possible northward shifting that would lessen snow totals down south and increase them near Louisville. Traces of snow from our Arctic frontal passage yesterday are now gone for the most part as temps have already gotten somewhat warmer for today than initially predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 By the way, Sunday's 12Z GFS looks ridiculously warm and stormy in the extended to start the month of March in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. But we do start meteorological spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 In light of my earlier post, the ECMWF has a nice over-runner, with a track right through the Mid-Atlantic region. Still time to work this out, but the potential for a phased storm exists. The Euro has the telltale signs of a potential storm in the making. I like how it digs the trough in the SW and builds up a ridge out ahead of it. In addition, we have a nice HP off the coast of Newfoundland instead of an LP, and the PV is north of the area towards Hudson Bay. The Ridge in the West is alot weaker as the +PNA block breaks down some and the jet-stream has more flexibility. Moreover, pretty nice gradient structure too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 By the way, Sunday's 12Z GFS looks ridiculously warm and stormy in the extended to start the month of March in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. But we do start meteorological spring! That would match what the CFS is showing right now going into March. The stormy part at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking like Tuesday into Wednesday and again on Saturday are our best snow chances this week locally. Saturday looks decent on the gem/euro. Other than that the tundra will continue with deep snow and bitterly cold nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 By the way, Sunday's 12Z GFS looks ridiculously warm and stormy in the extended to start the month of March in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. But we do start meteorological spring!ridiculously warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking like Tuesday into Wednesday and again on Saturday are our best snow chances this week locally. Saturday looks decent on the gem/euro. Other than that the tundra will continue with deep snow and bitterly cold nights. It's so weird how long snow has been on the ground now. Past couple winters have spoiled us. Deep snow just doesn't usually last this long. If you would've told me in December we'd have snow this deep for so long I'd have laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ridiculously warm? Ignoring the silliness of looking for temperature trends from the operational GFS at 300hrs+, early March climo would feel like a torch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's so weird how long snow has been on the ground now. Past couple winters have spoiled us. Deep snow just doesn't usually last this long. If you would've told me in December we'd have snow this deep for so long I'd have laughed. It is rare....normally when the snow gets deep, into the double digits, it lasts a day or two. I just looked it up...holy moly... Most days with 10"+ snow depth in a season (since 1906) at Detroit 1.) 52 days - 2013-14 2.) 18 days - 1998-99 3.) 15 days - 1907-08 3.) 15 days - 1981-82 3.) 15 days - 2008-09 6.) 14 days - 2014-15 thru Feb 15th So basically its a sure thing that the #1 and #2 winters (since 1906) for days with double-digit snow depth will be 2013-14 & 2014-15. But gee willikers, the snow was always deeper when grandpa was a kid, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ignoring the silliness of looking for temperature trends from the operational GFS at 300hrs+, early March climo would feel like a torch at this point. good point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ignoring the silliness of looking for temperature trends from the operational GFS at 300hrs+, early March climo would feel like a torch at this point. Hey, you northern posters can speak for yourselves Down here at Indy we've already hit 55 degrees a couple of times. Looking for spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It is rare....normally when the snow gets deep, into the double digits, it lasts a day or two. I just looked it up...holy moly... Most days with 10"+ snow depth in a season (since 1906) at Detroit 1.) 52 days - 2013-14 2.) 18 days - 1998-99 3.) 15 days - 1907-08 3.) 15 days - 1981-82 3.) 15 days - 2008-09 6.) 14 days - 2014-15 thru Feb 15th So basically its a sure thing that the #1 and #2 winters (since 1906) for days with double-digit snow depth will be 2013-14 & 2014-15. But gee willikers, the snow was always deeper when grandpa was a kid, right? That is ridiculous. These past two winters might just end up being the best I'll ever see here in Detroit. Hopefully we get a few more good storms this winter to make it even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The beat goes on around the Great Lakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has the developing LP near the Gulf around 140 hours. IMO, I think its speeding up the northern stream too quickly and this may cause a late phase-no phase on the model. On the 500mb vort maps, you can see the S/W energy digging through near California. No real ridge out in-front, but the PV is near Hudson Bay. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has the developing LP near the Gulf around 140 hours. IMO, I think its speeding up the northern stream too quickly and this may cause a late phase-no phase on the model. On the 500mb vort maps, you can see the S/W energy digging through near California. No real ridge out in-front, but the PV is near Hudson Bay. Lets see! Looks pretty distorted around 174 hours. No real phase. Alot of energy hanging back in the Gulf. Main energy still locked around Colorado. The GFS is either being too progressive or to slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS has the developing LP near the Gulf around 140 hours. IMO, I think its speeding up the northern stream too quickly and this may cause a late phase-no phase on the model. On the 500mb vort maps, you can see the S/W energy digging through near California. No real ridge out in-front, but the PV is near Hudson Bay. Lets see! Euro has it but tracks it to near Toledo and then near/se of Buffalo.. Pretty solid hit from i-80 on south in IA into N.IL/Chicago, Here to Toronto.. The mix line gets pretty darn close to here/Toronto and sneaks into Detroit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm ok with that. It means a stronger/NW solution is on the table. BTW, all the models have hinted at a decent storm around the time frame the EURO shows. But with the uber-progressive northern stream flow, it's as always going to be a matter of: 1. If the shortwave comes out in one piece or pieces. 2. If it slows down enough to fully phase with the southern wave stream. The time frame around the 22nd lately has had some type of storm in our region, so we have that going for us... Euro has it but tracks it to near Toledo and then near/se of Buffalo.. Pretty solid hit from i-80 on south in IA into N.IL/Chicago, Here to Toronto.. The mix line gets pretty darn close to here/Toronto and sneaks into Detroit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Two huge differences between the GFS/EC right now. 1) The GFS has a much weaker/slower pacific vort which digs further SW and phases with the STJ gyre while the Euro is stronger and much more progressive with this feature/ejection. 2) Overall, the northern stream is much less progressive on the euro so northern stream influence is much higher and in this case it helps guide the S vort further north. GFS v.s Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This is not looking fun... NAEFS almost growing in widespread cold as we end the month and enter March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Have to wonder to if the Great Lakes completely freeze over by the end of the month. Already 70% there and its only going to get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The cutter is still there on the 12z Euro but further SE this run (1002mb in southern IL southwest of EVV) and then a 1055mb high into ND after that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By the time the obit is written for this current storm the next threat is getting it's act together for the subforum in 4 days. Whose starting that thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By the time the obit is written for this current storm the next threat is getting it's act together for the subforum in 4 days. Whose starting that thread? Whoever started the super bowl storm can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Whoever started the super bowl storm can. I think we need Ohio representation for once.... it'll probably be good luck for you anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 By the time the obit is written for this current storm the next threat is getting it's act together for the subforum in 4 days. Whose starting that thread? me http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45759-february-21-22-storm-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Buckeye, start it. It needs to be someone on the I70 corridor. Edit: too late. LAF got screwed over by the SB Storm so maybe Hoosier starting it will be good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Buckeye, start it. It needs to be someone on the I70 corridor. too late.... Hoosier started it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ensembles are dropping the pna to neutral/slight positive at the moment while the epo nadirs. Should make for some interesting forecast. Should hopefully open the door for more storminess as a decent gradient pattern may develop in the East. The strong +PNA has/had essentially closed off the southern vortex from going anywhere and all were left with is strung out northern streams with little to no energy. This has been the theme for most of this month and last month. I guess thats what you get without any blocking up in the Arctic and Atlantic (NAO/AO). On the contrary, the NAO looks to remain positive and if the PNA tanks, this should create more snowfall opportunities for our region. Getting tired of this constant cold dry weather pattern now. Edit: Both the CFS and the weeklies had a more La Nina like pattern developing come March with much colder temperatures out West and seasonable temperatures out East (warmer in the south). Gradient pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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