dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Its a no win situation for this one for anywhere outside the elevations weaker its east and dry in the mountains and rain inland, Stronger low its west and rain inland with snow in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Its a no win situation for this one for anywhere outside the elevations weaker its east and dry in the mountains and rain inland, Stronger low its west and rain inland with snow in the mountains Hopefully we get a compromise track like the GFS for the sake of the NH/ME ski areas...VT still gets it good, but at least NH/ME would get a nice net gainer even if they gotta deal with a some rain initially. A euro track would suck....but it's looking more likely. Regardless, the synoptics of this system have never looked good except a small area in NNE...our ceiling for snow in SNE is probably a sloppy inch or so...perhaps the Tacnonics and the spine of the N Berks could get several inches of snow on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Hopefully we get a compromise track like the GFS for the sake of the NH/ME ski areas...VT still gets it good, but at least NH/ME would get a nice net gainer even if they gotta deal with a some rain initially. A euro track would suck....but it's looking more likely. Regardless, the synoptics of this system have never looked good except a small area in NNE...our ceiling for snow in SNE is probably a sloppy inch or so...perhaps the Tacnonics and the spine of the N Berks could get several inches of snow on the right track. That is not what we want to see, That was a torch to the St Lawrence on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm confused. congrats dendrite? i thought it was too arm. nice little squall here btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm confused. congrats dendrite? i thought it was too arm. nice little squall here btw. Its all coming down to timing of wave development in relation to the front, Complex up this way to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am so confused. I'm right in Central NH at 1100 feet and 6Z GFS gives me next to nothing and 12Z run brings in 2" or more qpf. Is that rain/snow or both? I absolutely don't know what will happen. PS Just read the thread, glad I'm not the only one in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am so confused. I'm right in Central NH at 1100 feet and 6Z GFS gives me next to nothing and 12Z run brings in 2" or more qpf. Is that rain/snow or both? I absolutely don't know what will happen. PS Just read the thread, glad I'm not the only one in the dark The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away Ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's getting too close. It can't rain this weekend, lol. Blue bomb though...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away Ride the Euro He won't have to question the precip type riding the euro...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Its all coming down to timing of wave development in relation to the front, Complex up this way to say the least It was just a comment about the model image verbatim. In that, Brian was snow, but not before some rain. That's all guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's an awful lot of rain for most of us. Looks like GC might manage an inch or two on the back end, but never, ever bank on that. 28.0/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's an awful lot of rain for most of us. Looks like GC might manage an inch or two on the back end, but never, ever bank on that. 28.0/23 After an inch of rain.... joy. Hey, if it melts my walkway, then so be it. This never had a real good look for snow for SNE. An inch would be high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 After an inch of rain.... joy. Hey, if it melts my walkway, then so be it. This never had a real good look for snow for SNE. An inch would be high end That's my stance on my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ukie actually brings rain well into powderfreak country...drives the low right up the CT river valley in NNE. That's an ugly look. GGEM is more progressive and more like the GFS though not as deep so it doesn't dump that intense CCB snow that the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It was just a comment about the model image verbatim. In that, Brian was snow, but not before some rain. That's all guys. Some of these small nuances in timing and track will have much different outcomes in some of these areas but don't think we are done with where this ultimately ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I know we have a new Euro in an hour but where did last nights run take the rain/snow line up here in C/NNE. I guess Powderfreak was okay on last nights Euro but did the Whites get mostly rain? It will be very curious to see what 12Z shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't envy Chris from GYX for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Don't envy Chris from GYX for this one Fire in the hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ukie actually brings rain well into powderfreak country...drives the low right up the CT river valley in NNE. That's an ugly look. GGEM is more progressive and more like the GFS though not as deep so it doesn't dump that intense CCB snow that the GFS does. I knew this one was bad news from the get-go...haha. Tons of possibility of failure, very little chance of significant snow unless it literally threads the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Take a Euro ENS track and that's what the outcome will be. It's not going up the river valley lol We all know the drill..PF pretends he's worried, knowing full well he's got 12+ coming. We all rain again..end as snow..and look for some other storm to track over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Take a Euro ENS track and that's what the outcome will be. It's not going up the river valley lol We all know the drill..PF pretends he's worried, knowing full well he's got 12+ coming. We all rain again..end as snow..and look for some other storm to track over the next 10 days Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Even the 12z GEFS does not agree with its OP run, What a POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Take a Euro ENS track and that's what the outcome will be. It's not going up the river valley lol We all know the drill..PF pretends he's worried, knowing full well he's got 12+ coming. We all rain again..end as snow..and look for some other storm to track over the next 10 days lol if only it was that easy.Lows do travel up the CT Valley from time to time. No blocking it could go anywhere. It could end up over BTV in another 24 hours. It's going negative and could get ripped pretty far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Why not? Um ..let me see..now.... what's been happening all winter....Hmmm? Oh that's right ..progressive, non amplified, weaker systems Persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 lol if only it was that easy. Lows do travel up the CT Valley from time to time. No blocking it could go anywhere. It could end up over BTV in another 24 hours. It's going negative and could get ripped pretty far inland. Thread the needle, Stronger west, Weaker east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Um ..let me see..now.... what's been happening all winter....Hmmm? Oh that's right ..progressive, non amplified, weaker systems Persistence Yeah you're right, there haven't been any amplified systems this year. That's why it hasn't rained at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Yeah you're right, there haven't been any amplified systems this year. That's why it hasn't rained at all. LOL..what? Every single storm this winter has been overamped and too far west. They've ended up weaker, east . With no blocking it often rains to Maine. Raining has nothing to do with strength of systems Enjoy your big snowstorm this weekend while the rest of the suckers get wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Even the 12z GEFS does not agree with its OP run, What a POS I'm still seeing only 6z GEFS...what's 12z got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 LOL..what? Every single storm this winter has been overamped and too far west. They've ended up weaker, east . With no blocking it often rains to Maine. Raining has nothing to do with strength of systems Enjoy your big snowstorm this weekend while the rest of the suckers get wet Ok, well if they aren't amped but still rain to NNE with no blocking, why is this one any different? You are coming close to just making things up to fit your views The low isn't that strong to begin with. It's all upper level trough axis. It has nothing to do with it being a bomb of a storm. It's UL trough. The new GGEM is 1003mb over ORH. That's weak and still fairly west. It's all about the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I'm still seeing only 6z GEFS...what's 12z got? Low looks to track LI to ACK to the tip of NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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