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Damage In Tolland

We have a Dream MLK Disco Jan 18 Possible Wave on front

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Models all keying on a  wave developing along the front..Ensembles keep it east and turn it into a longitude type snow deal..where west would be best, but would change to snow to the coast. Some op runs showing a cutter. Lots of potential with this one

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A CLASSIC NEGATIVELY-TILTING SETUP INFERRED FROM MODEL CONSENSUS IN

WHERE THE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION AS IT STACKS AND THE CENTRAL LOW

PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RETROGRADES W AS IT BOMBS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY

LOW VALUE. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING

/AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE

CONTINUING TO WOBBLE/. YET CONCERNING OUTCOMES...DEPENDENT ON THE

STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHILE EVALUATING ANALOGS

FROM CIPS GUIDANCE THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS THAT BEAR MONITORING:

1./ HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN / SMALL-STREAM

FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WELL FROZEN AND IMPERVIOUS

2./ STRONG-DAMAGING WINDS DURING BOTH APPROACH AND EXIT OF THE SYSTEM

3./ SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A WINTRY-

MIX ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE COMPRISING OF SLEET / FREEZING RAIN

4./ THERE IS ALSO CONCERN AS TO COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS AS TIDES

AROUND THE MONDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AT

11.2 FEET.

WITH THIS FORECAST OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE...PREFERENCE GIVEN TOWARDS

A CONSENSUS OF 14.18Z GFS- AND EC-ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH 15.0Z GFS-

AND EC-DETERMINISITIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH WPC FORECAST THINKING.

THIS MAKES FOR A HUGE MESS WITHIN OUR FORECAST DATABASE WHICH DOES

NOT YET BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL THREATS

LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE AND POOR RESOLUTION OF

SAID GUIDANCE...THAT IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD AMONG THE

MODELS. AND SADLY NO ONE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.  

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This system will do the dirty work to start the turn to NAO. I'm willing to take one for the team...lol.

 

 

Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this.

 

We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot.

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Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this.

 

We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot.

Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this

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Such a low probability for any significant snow in SNE anyways out of this.

We'd need to get extremely lucky with an absolutely perfect phase in a perfect spot.

Even then, west is best.

Unless the northern energy just gets the f out of the way.

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Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this

Expecting, no. But MPM to Dendrite could clean up.

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Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this

It's still going to take a lot of luck to get 2"+ out of this in SNE. Taconics in NW MA over to SW NH have a bit better shot but this is a tough task.

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Well again..I don't think anyone should be expecting sig. snow..Just a rain turning to heavy wet snow kind of thing where some areas could get 1-3 or 2-4 after it turns..I hope noone is expecting 6+ out of this

It would seem that significant snow this winter would be in the 2-4" range. 

Maybe 2 max.?

 

...of course all is way too early, but there's nothing else on the table so I suppose high hopes for this event are better than no hope.

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Dont agree. This has decent shot at dropping snow to the coast

It really doesn't though. Its going to take perfect timing and phase to get snow in most of the area.

This has a lot of things working against it, and even a more favorable track may not produce all that much snow.

I just want this storm to move along so we can have a shot at the clipper

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The biggest problem with snow in this event is there is so little qpf on the cold side...you really need to get up into Maine...maybe the White Mts of NH could do ok too.

 

If we get much more wrapped up mid-level low, those are the solutions that give SLK good snows...so it's kind of a catch 22. We would need the base of the trough to swing way out to the east and then go crazy ripping the storm back NW for us to get anything.

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It really doesn't though. Its going to take perfect timing and phase to get snow in most of the area.

This has a lot of things working against it, and even a more favorable track may not produce all that much snow.

I just want this storm to move along so we can have a shot at the clipper

The clipper is gone. That's why you've seen none talking about it.

This is the one to watch as it develops south of us..H5 digs and it starts as cold rain and ends as snow ..with the most snow being west..

An evolution like 18z GFS yesterday is certainly possible. 

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The biggest problem with snow in this event is there is so little qpf on the cold side...you really need to get up into Maine...maybe the White Mts of NH could do ok too.

 

If we get much more wrapped up mid-level low, those are the solutions that give SLK good snows...so it's kind of a catch 22. We would need the base of the trough to swing way out to the east and then go crazy ripping the storm back NW for us to get anything.

 

Exactly. No good mid level low to get the conveyor belt going and BL is  torched.

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The clipper is gone. That's why you've seen none talking about it.

This is the one to watch as it develops south of us..H5 digs and it starts as cold rain and ends as snow ..with the most snow being west..

An evolution like 18z GFS yesterday is certainly possible. 

 

Incorrect.

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