AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 eh.. people are weird about the nam. NAM was always in the ballpark last winter at close range from what I remember, same story this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM stays the course. Happy hour NAM is a success... now we need RGEM to follow suit and then the GFS to join the party and stop being off by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 eh.. people are weird about the nam. The NAM is derided too much. Don't get me wrong, I still think it's a minor league model that definitely overdoes it...but maybe it's good for trends. I dunno. Remember though, when it used to be good? Or so we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the NAM if it were the only one not giving us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the NAM if it were the only one not giving us snow. Eh, I would still pay attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 From NWS: "HOWEVER WE ARE AWARE OF THE "ONE INCH AT RUSH HR" RULE WHICH WOULD BRING ABT THE NEED FOR AN ADVSRY. WE ARE HOLDING ON THIS ATTM...BUT WL BRIEF THE EVE SHIFT AND LET THEM LOOK AT THE LATEST GDNC...INCLUDING 15Z SREF...AND LET THEM MAKE THE CALL." Didn't the 15z SREF's come out before the AFD? Man... someone's in a hurry to get off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If people want to elect to follow the radar and water vapor today I think they will be able to witness the evolution of a minor snow maker or perhaps a bust. It does not matter what models say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'd certainly trust the NAM over the GFS under 30 hours out. Honestly the NAM has done better for trends than the Euro <24 out several times in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM was always in the ballpark last winter at close range from what I remember, same story this winter. It's better than it's given credit for.. but not that great outside a certain range. It's peculiar the GFSs are so non interested though.. that's the real story if it snows. The upgrade seems like a POS thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It's better than it's given credit for.. but not that great outside a certain range. It's peculiar the GFSs are so non interested though.. that's the real story if it snows. The upgrade seems like a POS thus far. Yeah, the GFS seems like it has been underperforming? Interesting to compare though...with the 1/6 storm, the GFS was off about 1-1.5"...so maybe the same trend is being seen here with the difference between 2" on the NAM and 0" on the GFS? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ian, don't look at the 19z RAP. It sucks. ETA: Almost HRRR time though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Snowing at DCA ~4/5 am on 18z HI-RES NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Snowing at DCA ~4/5 am on HI-RES NAM nice. the NAM looks like light snow for a period of 6 hours maybe. Same with HI-RES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Snowing at DCA ~4/5 am on 18z HI-RES NAM Wish we could get a true daytime snow so someone other than weather psychopaths would be up to watch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hi-Res is only 0.05" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hi-Res is only 0.05" for DCA Snow or QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Hi-Res is only 0.05" for DCA Yeah, its just under an inch... should be an interesting night to see which model is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 4k nam didn't move the nw extent much at all but definitely backed off a good bit on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 4k nam didn't move the nw extent much at all but definitely backed off a good bit on qpf. The NAM itself was a bit drier too, but likewise kept the NW extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Saw on Twitter that the rest of the GFS model runs will be delayed. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/555091689669287936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Saw on Twitter that the rest of the GFS model runs will be delayed. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/555091689669287936 Well, this is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 The end of the HRRR looks promising for those south of the District sucks. Yes, I posted the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 19z HRRR-15 looks ok actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 19z HRRR-15 looks ok actually... I like the look of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18Z RGEM continues to give us the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18Z RGEM continues to give us the good stuff. looks like ~0.08" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 looks like ~0.08" for DC The map on Tropical Tidbits gives the area around 2-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Satellite tracking? Lol. looks like it could get shunted south, but it also looks like there will be moisture around enough for flurries/light snow. it's nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Atari came west gets measurable out to IAD-Westminter line Still only like 0.03 for DC, but up from the 0.01" at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18z GFS is "wetter". Gives DC a Dusting vs a Trace. Everyone S and E of Frederick get at least 0.1mm precip lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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