Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 south and east..gets precip up to a line from IAD to NW Baltimore burbs and then sinks southeast..probably 0.03" for DCA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Here's today's CWG article that Jason and I wrote on the event. Really low confidence. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/13/sneaky-snow-threat-wednesday-morning-rush-hour-could-be-affected-again/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I guess the Para decided not to run for the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yes, I am pulling out all the stops The 09z LWX 4km WRF-ARW run has precip in here (DCA) around 3-4am... decent band is in the area 4-5am Do you have link to those? I can't find them anymore on LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Do you have link to those? I can't find them anymore on LWX. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/localmodels.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 south and east..gets precip up to a line from IAD to NW Baltimore burbs and then sinks southeast..probably 0.03" for DCA..I'm out.Till 18z NAM at least. Euro runs dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm supposed to live blog tonight. Could be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 can you blow a little bit of snow my way? i have too much grass showing. kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm out. Till 18z NAM at least. Euro runs dry. I can't decide whether this has the bust smell or the coup smell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 I can't decide whether this has the bust smell or the coup smell I was just hoping the euro would hold last night's qpf. There's been a se shift since 6z but could be noise. I'll still hug the snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I can't decide whether this has the bust smell or the coup smell Two coups back to back for the NAM is like parlaying a Skins win with the Wizards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I can't decide whether this has the bust smell or the coup smellI don't feel that strongly one way or another either. I'd have rather seen the euro not tick down but it's not critical maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Two coups back to back for the NAM is like parlaying a Skins win with the Wizards Like I said..NAM in the short range is decent. Wait until the 0z NAM tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 euro will probably shift east but give DC around 0.05"....it will be cold with immediate stickage, but probably need 0.08" to get an inch I think dusting to a couple of inches is a decent call. I'd say more south and east but we could have sleet issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I was just hoping the euro would hold last night's qpf. There's been a se shift since 6z but could be noise. I'll still hug the snowiest model. Yeah...12z Euro isn't the game decider here. If 0z Euro still shows dry, then yeah....bail out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah...12z Euro isn't the game decider here. If 0z Euro still shows dry, then yeah....bail out. As good as the euro is in the 36-72 hour range, it is kind of irrelevant at this point...It isn't going to get nuanced cutoffs and QPF exactly right.....as much as I am lukewarm about the NAM...NAM/RGEM is probably the way to go right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 12z canadian has 0.1" contour just west of DC proper GFS 0.05" 15z RAP - 0.05" 12 Canadian - around 0.12" Euro has the 0.1" contour running right through DC proper ecmwf_tprecip_washdc_8.png This is where we stood midday on 1/28...we were in a slightly better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is where we stood midday on 1/28...we were in a slightly better position Hmm...good point. This is a tricky set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is where we stood midday on 1/28...we were in a slightly better position nice finds. we're probably due to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 What is this 1/28-29 everybody keeps talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 nice finds. we're probably due to fail. We had our fails in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 RAP hinting at flurry deform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 As good as the euro is in the 36-72 hour range, it is kind of irrelevant at this point...It isn't going to get nuanced cutoffs and QPF exactly right.....as much as I am lukewarm about the NAM...NAM/RGEM is probably the way to go right now... no more irrelevant than any other single piece of guidance -- i know it's kinda convenient in this case to throw out the global models in the short range but the resolution of the euro isn't much different than the NAM so that doesn't hold the same weight as it did 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Wakefield says most models overdone and too far north except GFS.. Oh they love their GFS. They don't seem to want to change or update their advisories. ARCTIC COLD FRONT(CURRENTLY AROUND 150-200 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST) CONTINUINGTO GRADUALLY PUSH ESE TODAY THROUGH WED. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...MODEL PRECIP COVERAGE/QPF IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN REGARD TO HOW FARNORTH AND WEST THE PLACEMENT IS. LATEST WPC QPF ANALYSIS KEEPSBEST LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER WXADVISORY AREAS. ..WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION BEFORE MAKING ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TOTHE CURRENT FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 PARA just showed up to work and it's a swing and miss as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 water vapor loop shows a potential flurry storm tomorrow morning: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html i'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 PARA just showed up to work and it's a swing and miss as expected Tropical Tidbits still has nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 water vapor loop shows a potential flurry storm tomorrow morning: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html i'm out. Satellite tracking? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 no more irrelevant than any other single piece of guidance -- i know it's kinda convenient in this case to throw out the global models in the short range but the resolution of the euro isn't much different than the NAM so that doesn't hold the same weight as it did 5 years ago. good point....perhaps it is misguided, but as much as I hug the euro the whole time leading up to an event, I have never put much stock in that final euro run before the event other than the general idea since we usually only get one run within 24 hours of the event . In terms of getting nuanced cutoffs or precise QPF, I don't weight it very much. But you're right..it is a piece of guidance that needs to be folded in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 18z RAP shifts north just slightly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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