WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 and the storm is now suppressed. It's anything but on the gfs ens members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's anything but on the gfs ens members Care to share how they look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Care to share how they look? Here: Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here:Sent from my iPad Actually pretty good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Care to share how they look? Sorry, just saw your post. Most are more amped than we would like...probably. Of course, at this range it means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 1009 L just south of LA in N GOM... 1034 H in N Plains at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 1009 L just south of LA in N GOM... 1034 H in N Plains at 198 1005 L near/over JAX... 1032 H in N IA at 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 1008 BIg Bend FL... 1034 H in SW MN at 207 OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Going to be close... and is that a clipper in the way over PA/NY? ETA: just wide right, but its fine where it is... deepens rapidly as it goes by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Keep it ots until under 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dang... this is one powerful low... it goes from 1008mb at 207 to 986mb at 222 to 967mb at 228 to 955 at 234... so it deepens 53mb in about 27 hrs Ensembles should be fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Keep it ots until under 120 hours This one may have 40 different looks over the next week but it might not disappear. Big storm signal for somebody. This board could use a se-ma-ne event. A collective high 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This one may have 40 different looks over the next week but it might not disappear. Big storm signal for somebody. This board could use a se-ma-ne event. A collective high 5. Nothing like a good snowfall to foster brotherhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dang... this is one powerful low... it goes from 1008mb at 207 to 986mb at 222 to 967mb at 228 to 955 at 234... so it deepens 53mb in about 27 hrs Ensembles should be fun to see bomb bomb bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Tonight's GGEM looks like it will be a monster smash for the region ETA: ~30mm of snow per meteogram at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hecs incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Hecs incoming More like #majorcutter on this Euro run.... and its 979mb near BUF at 216 But 240 has a very cold arctic blast coming into the Upper Midwest... -26c 850s in NW MN, N ND, and NE MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 More like #majorcutter on this Euro run.... and its 979mb near BUF at 216 But 240 has a very cold arctic blast coming into the Upper Midwest... -26c 850s in NW MN, N ND, and NE MT So the model that has been over amped all season is showing a cutter... I'm ok with where it is right now on all the guidance. We won't know details for several more days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 6z is really just aweful... I guess that's three runs in a row showing a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Its fine that the euro shows a cutter.. It has been over amped all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 And before some idiot says "that's exactly where we want it at this range"... I beg of you please for the love of god stop. Please do..you're giving me a headache. The potential storm is a week out. The waves in question are out over the WPAC currently. The higher frequency, off-equatorial forcings are often mishandled, even just 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Please do..you're giving me a headache. The potential storm is a week out. The waves in question are out over the WPAC currently. The higher frequency, off-equatorial forcings are often mishandled, even just 2-3 days out. OK cool so you at least get that I am making fun of the weenie justifications for why the model is not showing a snow storm... But I have to give to you... I have never heard it so eloquently stated than your last post. What a gem! If the gfs contiues to show a miss..You could ride that one until next tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 My Monday coastal is very close to surprising us! Sorry C.A.P.E, I'll go back to silent mode. It's all yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sorry mods... Mini melt down this morning. Anyway all kidding aside... I was looking at the 6z and something just didn't look right... It looked kinda funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 My Monday coastal is very close to surprising us! Sorry C.A.P.E, I'll go back to silent mode. It's all yours. Ha! I shall share it with you. To be fair you beat me to it. I was analyzing that period and just about to make a post on it when I saw yours. But I claimed it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sorry mods... Mini melt down this morning. Anyway all kidding aside... I was looking at the 6z and something just didn't look right... It looked kinda funny Yeah, because I was about to rip you before I saw this. All that hemming and hauling [sic] about weenies and you were acting just like one with that meltdown. Only the weeniest of weenies think a model 210 hours out is gonna show the preferrable solution for 40 straight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Verbatim the possible Monday storm has some issues that need to be resolved.... like timing the cold air and getting precip far enough inland at the same time. Minor details to be worked out as we get closer. ~waits for continuation of PDIII meltdown~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I have unfortunately been in this area too long and taught myself to be negative and pessimistic when it comes to something tracking up the coast (or any snow in this area). This may sound stupid to some but it has actually helped the utter disappointment when it goes OTS. I'm not saying it will happen this time, but when I saw the overnight runs, I'm not so disappointed. Yes....we have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yes yes! Agree 100%! Also been here for 50+ yrs. Still, forecasting > 4 days out is a crap shoot at best. How do forecasters in a public venue call for snow for 2 days a week out then go to sunny n mild!? This area for winter is rain, sleet with the occasional snow "storm" ...> 2-3" at best n maybe a "gotcha" sleeper cell up the coast to be sure. My $$ is on more of the same for this coming week. All fun to see paid "pros" squirm on they're failed forecasts tho! Its all good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Verbatim the possible Monday storm has some issues that need to be resolved.... like timing the cold air and getting precip far enough inland at the same time. Minor details to be worked out as we get closer. ~waits for continuation of PDIII meltdown~ Problem is those kinds of events rarely work out right. But we are a snowtown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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