Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It was unusual for the euro ensemble mean to make such a big shift last night. The 21-22nd period on the mean showed near neutral AO conditions @ 12z but 0z now shows the mean to be -1.5. Now the op comes out with this today: The big spike to +3-5 was missed at long range and now the trip down has been underdone run after run for the most part. Numerical indices don't tell the real story compared to H5 but even so, the 12z euro op run is vastly different with the strength and placement of higher heights in the high latitudes from d5 on through the end of the run compared to last night. This goes along with the big change with the ensembles. Is all of this going to be transient or is this the beginning of meaningful and longer term changes? Hard to say. If we do get a high amplitude -AO (like -1.5 or lower) that holds for more than 15 minutes then we may be headed to a much better place. I'm much more unsure than I am excited right now. Things are changing fast and jumping around a lot. But at least the recent trends are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 It was unusual for the euro ensemble mean to make such a big shift last night. The 21-22nd period on the mean showed near neutral AO conditions @ 12z but 0z now shows the mean to be -1.5. Now the op comes out with this today: euroao2.JPG The big spike to +3-5 was missed at long range and now the trip down has been underdone run after run for the most part. Numerical indices don't tell the real story compared to H5 but even so, the 12z euro op run is vastly different with the strength and placement of higher heights in the high latitudes from d5 on through the end of the run compared to last night. This goes along with the big change with the ensembles. Is all of this going to be transient or is this the beginning of meaningful and longer term changes? Hard to say. If we do get a high amplitude -AO (like -1.5 or lower) that holds for more than 15 minutes then we may be headed to a much better place. I'm much more unsure than I am excited right now. Things are changing fast and jumping around a lot. But at least the recent trends are in our favor. and "might" it be because we are no longer in NINO territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This is a pretty wild look at h5. I-70 east runs about 1500 miles into the atlantic so the storm has zero chance at turning the corner. We're going to get teased pretty bad with this one for a while. That's a pretty SECsy/MECsy pattern. The dual-upper low structure with a W-E orientation in southern Canada is a classic coastal low sign that I look for. That linear orientation with one low at the 50/50 position provides the confluence and prevents the storm from cutting. Add in the ridging over the top of that structure and the s/w's in the southern stream and it all shapes up well. I'm not concerned at all that this particular Op run shunts it OTS. It's a pattern with tons of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 and "might" it be because we are no longer in NINO territory? I'm sure it's having some impact. I made a mistake in my post. I meant 0z ens mean showed a near neutral AO and now 12z shows -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 That's a pretty SECsy/MECsy pattern. The dual-upper low structure with a W-E orientation in southern Canada is a classic coastal low sign that I look for. That linear orientation with one low at the 50/50 position provides the confluence and prevents the storm from cutting. Add in the ridging over the top of that structure and the s/w's in the southern stream and it all shapes up well. I'm not concerned at all that this particular Op run shunts it OTS. It's a pattern with tons of potential. Totally agree. It was too much of a good thing with blocking/confluence on the run. I liked the run as well because there was zero chance at a cutter or runner with that setup. And it also had the SS vort as other guidance and about the same time frame. There's long lead agreement for a storm for someone in that period. Latest trends on the ops have been good but way outside of their skill range. Heck, maybe if we do get some decent blocking and a 50/50 models will start converging and holding from d4-5 on in. Just like the good ole days before it all went to heck for the last 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Totally agree. It was too much of a good thing with blocking/confluence on the run. I liked the run as well because there was zero chance at a cutter or runner with that setup. And it also had the SS vort as other guidance and about the same time frame. There's long lead agreement for a storm for someone in that period. Latest trends on the ops have been good but way outside of their skill range. Heck, maybe if we do get some decent blocking and a 50/50 models will start converging and holding from d4-5 on in. Just like the good ole days before it all went to heck for the last 4 years. Its pretty ironic that as we've gone into the future and technology has advanced, we're seeing less and less long lead storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm sure it's having some impact. I made a mistake in my post. I meant 0z ens mean showed a near neutral AO and now 12z shows -1.5 DT stay the course?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 DT stay the course?? He's playing heel this winter, doubt he changes his tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 DT stay the course?? Not sure. He hasn't been around since he declared zero chance of the gefs being right with the -ao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ensembles look quite a bit like the op d8-10. Nothing is easily cutting if that pattern verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Verbatim on the Euro, the day 9 (la-la land) dream storm misses us but BWI does get 1.75" of rain and 35-40 degrees on Sunday. With cold air chasing the rain it could get interesting for some late Sunday. With the exception of most of the rain event and the 18 hours preceding it, 850 temperatures are below zero throughout the 10-day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ens run is a bit of a long lead weenie run. MSLP track d8-10 is near perfect for a miller A here. There are some west tracks and miller B solutions though but the mean track is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ens run is a bit of a long lead weenie run. MSLP track d8-10 is near perfect for a miller A here. There are some west tracks and miller B solutions though but the mean track is money. Didn't someone mention the 20th-25th was a timeframe to look at earlier as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Didn't someone mention the 20th-25th was a timeframe to look at earlier as well?Probably.. Pretty much every time frame has been highlighted by someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Andrew is on board with the idea of something happening soon as well, using the Japan theory: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-21-25-potentially-significant.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Probably.. Pretty much every time frame has been highlighted by someone. I'm highlighting the Jan 32-34th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Probably.. Pretty much every time frame has been highlighted by someone. I've learned that if you put the word MIGHT in your statements it pretty much gives you an out every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Probably.. Pretty much every time frame has been highlighted by someone. lol- true. One thing I will say, if we do flip to a -ao/nao next week (and by next week I mean the 21st or so) and hold onto it for a while, nobody called it or got it right. I will be a complete surprise to everybody although it will get spun as "part of the plan". Next week was forecast to be mildish with no hope in sight for the ao/nao until Feb by just about everyone. Yes, people mentioned the 25th+ timeframe because that was the ONLY thing showing promise a few days ago. This is an abrupt regime change going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Let's get the real Dr No's thoughts. Wes, you there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 lol- true. One thing I will say, if we do flip to a -ao/nao next week (and by next week I mean the 21st or so) and hold onto it for a while, nobody called it or got it right. I will be a complete surprise to everybody although it will get spun as "part of the plan". Next week was forecast to be mildish with no hope in sight for the ao/nao until Feb by just about everyone. Yes, people mentioned the 25th+ timeframe because that was the ONLY thing showing promise a few days ago. This is an abrupt regime change going on right now. Delayed but not denied. We gotta see a -nao again eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 MIGHT you and phineas remain top long range forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 The first line of Andrew's summary reminds me of the Farmer's Almanac. A storm is expected to impact the United States between January 21 and January 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 lol- true. One thing I will say, if we do flip to a -ao/nao next week (and by next week I mean the 21st or so) and hold onto it for a while, nobody called it or got it right. I will be a complete surprise to everybody although it will get spun as "part of the plan". Next week was forecast to be mildish with no hope in sight for the ao/nao until Feb by just about everyone. Yes, people mentioned the 25th+ timeframe because that was the ONLY thing showing promise a few days ago. This is an abrupt regime change going on right now. Someday people are going to admit that 10+ day forecasts are unreliable even if they are created with 200 member ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro ensembles look quite a bit like the op d8-10. Nothing is easily cutting if that pattern verifies. What's up with the ridging into Greenland that starts day 6-7? I had to blink a few times to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Andrew is on board with the idea of something happening soon as well, using the Japan theory: http://theweatherc0entre.blogspot.com/2015/01/january-21-25-potentially-significant.html Didn't he cancel winter last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Didn't he cancel winter last week? Yep Andrew bailed and cancelled winter last week. I haven't seen so many flip flops since Aug. in O.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 You know..Andrew the forecasterI only listen to Jays Wintry Ox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Didn't he cancel winter last week? Actually, he didn't. He wrote that we'd have a relaxing with some moderating temps and then a reload before things ended early-mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 What's up with the ridging into Greenland that starts day 6-7? I had to blink a few times to make sure. It's very abrupt and nobody can claim victory if it verifies. Here's the Jan 13th 0z euro ens run for 12z on 1/21 Here's today's 12z ens run for the same time: Only a slight difference and this was inside of 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I fully expect lots of people to claim victory if/when things turn favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.