Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Problem is those kinds of events rarely work out right. But we are a snowtown.. With a sub 1k tracking north of the lakes destroying the midlevels all the way back to Ohio and development off the Delmarva and not the va capes or south, I see no reasonable way to get the column right until it's way too late. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know at face value the EURO is frustrating because it doesn't show a snowstorm. However, I would rather that day 9 event the EURO is showing blow up, it would help the pattern going forward from Jan 25th on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know at face value the EURO is frustrating because it doesn't show a snowstorm. However, I would rather that day 9 event the EURO is showing blow up, it would help the pattern going forward from Jan 25th on... Lol. Pattern shmattern. We've been waiting on patters for a month. I'd rather it be a BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know at face value the EURO is frustrating because it doesn't show a snowstorm. However, I would rather that day 9 event the EURO is showing blow up, it would help the pattern going forward from Jan 25th on... We haven't had a big all snow storm in almost 5 years so my expectations are realistic. They don't come easy. Euro ens mean track last night was a miller b. Primary into wv and jump to the Delmarva. The members are all over the place from great to terrible. Each member is as good as the op at this lead. Anything is on the table. One negative from last night's ens run was the strong 50/50 and confluence from the pv dropping backed off quite a but. Now there is weak ridging in front of the vort so signs of more west solution increased. Could be just noise. Until the the longer term evolution of the sun/mon event is realized and any clipper in between, the only thing we really know is that we don't know. Event a west track or miller b could work out if the antecedent airmass is good. We do front end to drizzle to dryslot more often than miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I know at face value the EURO is frustrating because it doesn't show a snowstorm. However, I would rather that day 9 event the EURO is showing blow up, it would help the pattern going forward from Jan 25th on... LOL you are always consistent. Epic pattern upcoming! I'm stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 We haven't had a big all snow storm in almost 5 years so my expectations are realistic. They don't come easy. Euro ens mean track last night was a miller b. Primary into wv and jump to the Delmarva. The members are all over the place from great to terrible. Each member is as good as the op at this lead. Anything is on the table. One negative from last night's ens run was the strong 50/50 and confluence from the pv dropping backed off quite a but. Now there is weak ridging in front of the vort so signs of more west solution increased. Could be just noise. Until the the longer term evolution of the sun/mon event is realized and any clipper in between, the only thing we really know is that we don't know. Event a west track or miller b could work out if the antecedent airmass is good. We do front end to drizzle to dryslot more often than miller A's. You guys didn't have a 8"+ snowstorm last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You guys didn't have a 8"+ snowstorm last year? Yes, but it wasn't all snow. Flipped to a bunch of sleet and some rain/drizzle during the morning before the dryslot. It was a big storm but pretty messy during the day. We had another nice storm over St. Paddy's day but it wasn't a miller A. We just haven't had a nice all snow miller A since Feb of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You guys didn't have a 8"+ snowstorm last year? Yeah, I thought I had a storm of like 15 inches last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yes, but it wasn't all snow. Flipped to a bunch of sleet and some rain/drizzle during the morning before the dryslot. It was a big storm but pretty messy during the day. We had another nice storm over St. Paddy's day but it wasn't a miller A. We just haven't had a nice all snow miller A since Feb of 2010. To be fair, big storms by their very nature are often mixy somewhere in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 To be fair, big storms by their very nature are often mixy somewhere in the MA. Totally agree. That's why I don't have expectations for a pretty cold powder miller A with a perfect track next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS at least continues with the idea of a 1032 H in extreme N MN at 177 ETA: Another miss to the east, and this time it took longer to get its act together compared to earlier GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 chill is right. last winter we did good with medium events, but the big one was definitely a mess the next day. it rained the 2nd half of the feb 12-13, 2014 snowstorm. even january 2011 was rain the first half. it has been since 09/10 since we had a sizable snowstorm from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS with a OTS slider and Euro with a wound up cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not seeing a very promising set-up for the GFS storm and it obviously shows. Hopefully we see different solutions soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 12z GFS with a OTS slider and Euro with a wound up cutter. GGEM was a hit last night... so we have all 3 options on the table right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not seeing a very promising set-up for the GFS storm and it obviously shows. Hopefully we see different solutions soon. You should expound on why you don't think its a promising setup rather than making a blanket statement. Also, we've seen a plethora of solutions over the past 24 hours, so you're definitely in for a bunch of new ones in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GGEM was a hit last night... so we have all 3 options on the table right now GGEM was a hit the day before yesterday with yesterday's storm that missed :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not seeing a very promising set-up for the GFS storm and it obviously shows. Hopefully we see different solutions soon. Why, It's 180 hours and like 36 runs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Why, It's 180 hours and like 36 runs out? No crap huh? I was talking in reference to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm more interested in Wednesday for now. We could easily get a good vort pass and weak slp south of us. GFS is close to this and it's way out in time. Those NS pieces of energy are tricky and show their true colors inside of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm not seeing a very promising set-up for the GFS storm and it obviously shows. Hopefully we see different solutions soon. I see a 50/50 feature with a near phase with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 No crap huh? I was talking in reference to that. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I see a 50/50 feature with a near phase with the northern stream. Yup. Lot of moving parts and we're going to see about 20 solutions and 10 evolutions between now and then. Finally looks like an interesting period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Yup. Lot of moving parts and we're going to see about 20 solutions and 10 evolutions between now and then. Finally looks like an interesting period coming up. It's obviously a miss because any phasing is missed on the run. But the 50/50 keeps the confluence and cutter idea away on the run. The gulf low is juicy but can't turn the corner. Even a partial phase or interaction with the NS vort turns it up the coast. I don't know how you can call this run disappointing. PG, I'm not sure how much you look at the upper levels but they are far more important than surface maps at long leads on op runs. This is far from a bad run. Considering the euro mauled buffalo last night this run is a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's obviously a miss because any phasing is missed on the run. But the 50/50 keeps the confluence and cutter idea away on the run. The gulf low is juicy but can't turn the corner. Even a partial phase or interaction with the NS vort turns it up the coast. I don't know how you can call this run disappointing. PG, I'm not sure how much you look at the upper levels but they are far more important than surface maps at long leads on op runs. This is far from a bad run. Considering the euro mauled buffalo last night this run is a relief. gfs.JPG Thanks for the clarification. I do look at surface maps, but I am still in the learning process. I appreciate your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 idk, I think all the disillusionment is justified after what has gone on to this point the next step in weenie meltdown is anger that should start showing up if the 1/25 potential is lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Thanks for the clarification. I do look at surface maps, but I am still in the learning process. I appreciate your help. It's not a great big storm pattern. It's a timing pattern. The euro last night dug the northern stream right down the heart of the country and even with a 50/50 feature, ridging got pumped up in the east. It was too amped up for us to have a chance. It's one of those setups where relatively small changes in strength and placement of the important features cause large changes in sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This is last night's euro for the same period I posted the gfs. It digs for Texas oil with the northern stream and kills off any confluence we have from the 50/50. Somewhere between this euro look and today's gfs is a big storm for us. Euro likes amping things up too much at this range so it's hardly a surprise. But doesn't mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The one theme that this winter has that showed up on the higher solar analogs is a high-freq flow. The issue becomes getting proper amplification/interaction. This is why many of the better analogs seemed to have good patterns, per monthly numbers/composites, but lacked on the snow (e.g. 58/59, 03/04, 79/80 for some of you). Already, the modeling has become littered with waves next week and has dismantled the NAO rex attempt to more of a thumb/omega block. There's been also a nice similarity with 04/05, 87/88 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The one theme that this winter has that showed up on the higher solar analogs is a high-freq flow. The issue becomes getting proper amplification/interaction. This is why many of the better analogs seemed to have good patterns, per monthly numbers/composites, but lacked on the snow (e.g. 58/59, 03/04, 79/80 for some of you). Already, the modeling has become littered with waves next week and has dismantled the NAO rex attempt to more of a thumb/omega block. There's been also a nice similarity with 04/05, 87/88 too. So, my point is: don't get your hopes up despite the favorable trend in teleconnections/modeled pattern. These kind of years seem to find a way to lol at decent amplification. This week is a great example. Last year, this week would have probably worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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