Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II

[mackerel_sky]

I don't think the cold is just going to sit out west that long. It is going to come east. No need to worry, everything will come together soon, and there is plenty of winter left. The rain the past couple of days has been miserable, but I think it is a good sign. If we stay in this wet pattern, all we need is the cold.

The cold dumping out west is never good, no matter how people try to spin it or twist it! It may come east, it may not? Then it moderates due to lack of snowcover, most model runs seem to have that look locked in! I'd say no wintry precip, atleast through 1-6-15, jmo

I mean if I lived in TX, W TN, NW MS, even N LA,

I would be super stoked

[metwannabe]

Indeed it's been flexing it's muscle the last couple of runs of the Euro and GFS.

It's a product of the models dumping the energy into the west. It pumps heights over the southeast. The key is the ridge in the west. As we saw at 00z it was further east not allowing anything to dog and pump heights in the Se

[Brick Tamland]

The key to all this is where the ridge sets up. That's why we see different solutions every run. Placement of the ridge is key

Why are people looking for models to lock in on a solution 8+ days out . Really????? The GFS and euro are not gonna lock into a solution and keep it for 8 days straight

And if I recall correctly, last winter the models looked mostly bad until about three days before we got snow.

[burgertime]

It's a product of the models dumping the energy into the west. It pumps heights over the southeast. The key is the ridge in the west. As we saw at 00z it was further east not allowing anything to dog and pump heights in the Se

 

I think we're still in for some fun and games. CMC is the type of look we want. I wanna see how the models handle the Christmas storm AFTER it has made it's way NE. That seems to be playing a factor in the evolution of everything....could be wrong about that though just noticed runs where we had big time cold they had it really wrapped up as it slammed into NE Canada. 

[GaWx]

The key to all this is where the ridge sets up. That's why we see different solutions every run. Placement of the ridge is key

Why are people looking for models to lock in on a solution 8+ days out . Really????? The GFS and euro are not gonna lock into a solution and keep it for 8 days straight

 

To be fair, it isn't just the day 8+. The general pattern already looks crappy in comparison to the 0Z Euro by hour 120 as the cold starts aiming further SW with the upper levels by then. That's not to say it won't reverse in future runs obviously.

[superjames1992]

Nice CAD wedge for the NC Piedmont at hr 204. 850s of 12C while surface temperatures are in the mid 30s with cold rain.

[packbacker]

The cold dumping out west is never good, no matter how people try to spin it or twist it! It may come east, it may not? Then it moderates due to lack of snowcover, most model runs seem to have that look locked in! I'd say no wintry precip, atleast through 1-6-15, jmo

I might go a little later than 1/6. We can't get a winter threat to inside 5 days. It looked like the 12/29 threat may give someone snow but the Euro essentially reduced it down to a front. With the PV getting pushed around in the near term the models are going to change every run.

[deltadog03]

Im still calling BS on the energy just dropping into the 4 corners and taking a week vaca there.  I smell a rat.  There are 2 trofs in the subtropics in the PAC.  Conflicting signal there. 1 is clearly East of HI, but one looked like its just west or very near HI.  My guess, as of now, is that the energy over the 4 corners should NOT stay there, i.e. like last nights runs.  However** it could be possible that the trof is allowed to spend a few days there...**IF** it does that, its going to be a washout here, with a SW flow aloft, but more importantly, that cold press is going to really be delayed.  Again, trends are all over the place...NOT time to jump off the cliff by any means.  Just so I am clear...LOL  **IMO** The energy will not stay out there and we can smash the ridge over SFL.  Confidence is well....low   DUH!  

[metwannabe]

To be fair, it isn't just the day 8+. The general pattern already looks crappy in comparison to the 0Z Euro by hour 120 as the cold starts aiming further SW with the upper levels by then. That's not to say it won't reverse in future runs obviously.

That's my point. I know its just not a day 8 storm . But look at where we were yesterday at 12 and last night and the today. All over the road. So there is no reason to be worried or excited

[superjames1992]

That was one ugly run. I don't even see any silver lining at D10. At least it'll be different in 12 hours.

[Shawn]

As volatile everything is, I really doh't think we are gonna have a long lead time to a storm.  Everything is on the table, and burger has a good point about the Christmas system getting out of the way/where it's going to go so the models can readjust.

 

I've noticed the EPS members have gradually been going back up for Winter weather here in KCAE along with the GEFS members.  In fact, one member of the GEFS had a potent ice storm down this way.

 

I really trust in the individuals to try to figure out a trend as the EPS was the only thing many of us had to rely on last year for that ice/snow that nailed many of us.  

[deltadog03]

I still say that this all screams 1 thing......The pattern is changing, regardless of who benefits from it the most.  Its changing   The models don't know who the winners and losers will be yet though.  

[tnweathernut]

Im still calling BS on the energy just dropping into the 4 corners and taking a week vaca there. Confidence is well....low DUH!

I have noticed several times when energy is dropping into the base of a trough, that if that ridge tilts or expands northeast, it can induce the energy to drop southwest. I have also seen this very scenario where something just sits out west for several days, even with a trough east of Hawaii. May not be able to sit and die there, and will eventually come out......but I don't like what I am seeing.

The only thing that gives me comfort is knowing there will likely be big changes in the future modeling.

[jburns]

I still say that this all screams 1 thing......The pattern is changing, regardless of who benefits from it the most.  Its changing   The models don't know who the winners and losers will be yet though.  

 

True enough.  You have to admit though, that it has been this way for a rather unusual length of time. You would think that at least one model would be able to lock onto something.  I am seriously thinking about revising my don't look further than 5 days out policy downward to 3 days.  

[deltadog03]

True enough.  You have to admit though, that it has been this way for a rather unusual length of time. You would think that at least one model would be able to lock onto something.  I am seriously thinking about revising my don't look further than 5 days out policy downward to 3 days.  

Great points!!  1 thing that does bother me some...is that the time frames are not getting closer and closer to D0....The MOST important day...LOL  That doesn't sit well...

[toxictwister00]

True enough.  You have to admit though, that it has been this way for a rather unusual length of time. You would think that at least one model would be able to lock onto something.  I am seriously thinking about revising my don't look further than 5 days out policy downward to 3 days.  

 

Go for 24 hrs, the model guidance CLEARLY can't handle figuring out more than one storm at a time.

[BullCityWx]

Charlotte doesn't have a freeze for that entire run.

[packbacker]

Charlotte doesn't have a freeze for that entire run.

 

Nobody in the SE does, it was a dreadful run.

 

The CMC/CMC-ENS and GEFS does get the cold to the east.  The CMC-ENS really doesn't break the pattern down trough day from day 7 through 15.

[pcbjr]

Just as pretty.

 

And the beat goes on ....

 

[mackerel_sky]

Just as pretty.

And the beat goes on ....

B5pIJqwCEAE1EW_.png

The beat goes on until 18z and 0z, we will see some cold runs, I hope!? Christmas miracle??

[pcbjr]

The beat goes on until 18z and 0z, we will see some cold runs, I hope!? Christmas miracle??

 That would be quite a miracle ...

[superjames1992]

The beat goes on until 18z and 0z, we will see some cold runs, I hope!? Christmas miracle??

 

Look at the 12z Canadian is you want cold.

 

Too bad it's raining in Montreal today.  Wet Christmas for Quebec.  Woo.

[Cold Rain]

So what's our target date for the change to a cold pattern? We should at least write that down so we can track our progress. 1/1 a good place to start?

[metwannabe]

That would be quite a miracle ...

Models flipping from run to run in LR would not be a miracle. A miracle would be back consistent runs in the LR

[pcbjr]

Models flipping from run to run in LR would not be a miracle. A miracle would be back consistent runs in the LR

 That's exactly what I meant - 18 Z and 0Z back to back ...

[packbacker]

So what's our target date for the change to a cold pattern? We should at least write that down so we can track our progress. 1/1 a good place to start?

 

Sounds good to me.  I just want someone in the east to get snow in the next 10 days, I can live vicariously through the MA or the NE.  Look at this Santa Bomb storm...I thought someone in the OH-V would get snow but it's a big rain storm for them too.

 

Remind me next year we need to root for low snow cover/extent for a -AO.  Also, we want a nina next year in hopes the atmosphere responds as a nino.

[packbacker]

The EPS has the SLP Mean tracking over CAE then just south of HAT for the day 5-6 "event".  Might be good central/northern VA. and points NE.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Charlotte doesn't have a freeze for that entire run.

Yep, pretty ugly.... I keep telling myself that it will not verify.

[packbacker]

The EPS does keep the -EPO going in the LR and a trough in the east so cold air is around.  Looks like it tries to develop some blocking (-AO) but a big old +NAO as the PV stays in Hudson Bay the entire time.  

[packbacker]

Hmmmm...we have gotten snow in worse setups.