GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Congrats south Texas .....huge cold dump on this run though. It appears that a Miller A may be forming on 1/1 in the W GOM fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Congrats south Texas .....huge cold dump on this run though.That deep TX ice/snow , has been showing up on a few runs of both models , not really good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 It appears that a Miller A may be forming on 1/1 in the W GOM fwiw. Just as the pattern is starting to relax a little. Also looks like the Euro might reload as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Very cold rain/borderline wintry precip. central MS/AL/N GA PM of 1/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 A little too warm this go round but with the big PV dropping into the east it could be good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Good hit for the south @240 though it's mainly LA/TN and then WNC @240. G'night folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Euro clown **FWIW** has major SN most of LA/MS, E TN, N/C AL, N GA, upstate SC most of NC 1/1-2. It appears much of this is in reality IP or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 LA/MS/AL and N GA all get hit pretty hard this go 'round on the Euro. Stay tuned for a completely different forecast in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Regardless of whether the 0Z Euro is onto something, this is still another example of a fairly weak low in the GoM (Miller A) (~1010 at strongest) producing widespread wintry precip. in the inland SE US. Looking back at history, that's the type of low that typically produces these, not wound up phased lows. That's because those typically cause most to warm up too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Euro's D10 storm is very close for the I-85 corridor on west in NC. Definitely snow to start, then I'm unsure. 850s rise to +1C, but surface temps are 31-32. 850s crash to -2C by the end of the run with precip still falling. The WB clown has 5-6" from CLT up to GSO with precip still ongoing, but that's hardly trustworthy. The clown also puts down decent "snows" in AL and MS, plus N GA. However, aside from the extreme northern portions, this looks like an ice storm rather than a snowstorm there (verbatim). Thicknesses are kind of high, though, which makes me wonder if there's a warm layer in there somewhere. Not to worry, though, as it will all be different at 12z in the next edition of "As the Models Turn"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Larry, was it pretty ICY for us with that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 well, ok...I def. like the trend from the last few runs..Synoptically they have been pretty good. obviously to early to look below anything lower than the 500mb level, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 For the CLT area, it looks like a lot of sleet to snow close in with more snow up toward Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Euro's D10 storm is very close for the I-85 corridor on west in NC. Definitely snow to start, then I'm unsure. 850s rise to +1C, but surface temps are 31-32. 850s crash to -2C by the end of the run with precip still falling. The WB clown has 5-6" from CLT up to GSO with precip still ongoing, but that's hardly trustworthy. The clown also puts down decent "snows" in AL and MS, plus N GA. However, aside from the extreme northern portions, this looks like an ice storm rather than a snowstorm there (verbatim). Thicknesses are kind of high, though, which makes me wonder if there's a warm layer in there somewhere. Not to worry, though, as it will all be different at 12z in the next edition of "As the Models Turn"! 850's went above freezing here with below freezing at 925. Sounds like IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z GFS took another step back towards a warmer solution. The cold is not able to make any headway into the SE. As we all know the LR on any model is basically crap, but I was getting excited about the day 6 event. That's actually within the window of reality for the models; but that now looks too warm for anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z GFS took another step back towards a warmer solution. The cold is not able to make any headway into the SE. As we all know the LR on any model is basically crap, but I was getting excited about the day 6 event. That's actually within the window of reality for the models; but that now looks too warm for anything but rain. Areas west of the apps is much different story. They have a much better chance given the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Areas west of the apps is much different story. They have a much better chance given the setup The only chance we have is with the low level cold. I remember reading years back that models tend to have a hard time gauging how far the low level cold air can push into areas. We'll need to monitor how cold/dry the air that is near us and to see if there will be a sufficient high to deliver it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Two days ago you saw a torch too, so still lots of flipping left to go. Right now there's nothing to keep the cold air from rushing out to sea, hopefully we'll see a little -NAO to help us out. Just a little bit would be enough to push the snow line that the models are currently showing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 6z GFS took another step back towards a warmer solution. The cold is not able to make any headway into the SE. As we all know the LR on any model is basically crap, but I was getting excited about the day 6 event. That's actually within the window of reality for the models; but that now looks too warm for anything but rain. Still a nice signal for Burgers new years storm, I don't know what to think day 10+, verbatim it doesn't look wintery to say the least. I guess the glass half full folks will say "it won't take much" to turn it around. Not going to say if the new years storm falters we are going to be waiting till end of January for our first event...atleast not going to say it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The CFS keeps bouncing around, it wasn't until around Nov 26/27th that it locked into the all out torch for Canada/US so hopefully by this weekend the CFS is locked into a cold east/conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Another day of a strong -soi. This will help with the mjo and keep the trough for central/east. Euro ensembles look better in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nice blocking on the para, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well it isn't exactly who you want on your side but the 84 hout NAM and the Hi-Res NAM @60 hours both have the PV in a better spot just after the Christmas storm. Good sign...but we need it there in 24 hours on the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well it isn't exactly who you want on your side but the 84 hout NAM and the Hi-Res NAM @60 hours both have the PV in a better spot just after the Christmas storm. Good sign...but we need it there in 24 hours on the NAM lol. true..I hope you are controlling the GFS today..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well out to 81 GFS looks further west than 00z from last night. Let's hope it gets it's act together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Well @108 it's not so bad. Looks a little better than 00z. Have to see where this ends up going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @ Hr 117 850mb line about 100 miles further south than previous two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @120 big 1040 high over the Dakotas...models seeing the cold from that so it looks better just west of the Apps. Some energy dropping into the SW could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 This looks like it's going to be in the middle of 18z and 00z yesterday of the GFS runs. I like the look at 5h....hopefully we get some confluence in the NE if it comes rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Cuts off energy over the four corners @hr 150 on 5h. Looks further west with the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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