Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Out to 114 on the GFS. Don't think it's going to be crazy like the 18z but we shall see. Trying to push that trough back SW again... tricky tricky! Greenland ridge looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Trying to push that trough back SW again... tricky tricky! Greenland ridge looking good. It looks to me like this run won't be as cold...who knows where it goes in the end, but that may work out better if some energy can squeeze underneath...won't get suppressed into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Here comes the hammer @156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @168 cold is still in the center of the country and in the west. Moving east but slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Ridge was broken down by 150/153 last run...ridge still strong at 168hrs this run...this cold is going to slowly creep in... PV is pretty much stationary above the hudson....if we can get it to drop sooner with this ridge it would be a good track, this run is probably not going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No OMG this time. The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No OMG this time. The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now. You have the GFS done? PV starting to drop @183....ridge still in place trough should adjust. Don't have high hopes but it can still end up looking good or OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Here comes the hammer @156. Looks like there will be an arctic outbreak..... Now, it's all about where it dumps. Still think it ends up more east than what's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 hmmm...looks like maybe an ICY mess with that look at 180... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No OMG this time. The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now. Not really...just a step down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @189 all the cold is still west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 You have the GFS done? PV starting to drop....ridge still in place trough should adjust. No, but it is definitely coming in much warmer through hour 168 without that great +PNA look. The run may get interesting later but I'd prefer it not back away from the great look of the 12Z as of days 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS PARA seeing it as well. Has the PV dropping into MT and Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 @189 all the cold is still west of us Holding back energy over the SW the entire time. Uh huh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No, but it is definitely coming in much warmer through hour 168 without that great +PNA look. The run may get interesting later but I'd prefer it not back away from the great look of the 12Z as of days 5-7. Its still a good PNA it just started further west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 204 cold finally hits the SE. Some snow...but it's after it looses it's resolution so verbatim it would more than likely be cold chasing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Not really...just a step down It is definitely a disappointment compared to the 12Z consensus. Not what I wanted to see at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Looks like there will be an arctic outbreak..... Now, it's all about where it dumps. Still think it ends up more east than what's showing. Why do you think it dumps more east than what is shown tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 After 204 we stay in the icebox but it just looks weird to me. Nothing crazy cold in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No, but it is definitely coming in much warmer through hour 168 without that great +PNA look. The run may get interesting later but I'd prefer it not back away from the great look of the 12Z as of days 5-7. yeah we can't have to cold that far west too soon but it will happen with a ridge looking like that from the get go, tilted east like that. Yeah this run sucks compared to others but not compared to yesterday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Its not as good, but its not awful like some past runs we have had either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 After 204 we stay in the icebox but it just looks weird to me. Nothing crazy cold in Canada. The cold exited stage right in canada at 216...the core of the cold took way too long to drop to the hudson or further south of it this run and it was part of the demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Good news is there is still a SSW event in the strat maps. Looks just as potent as the 18z. I don't believe energy sitting over the SW half the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I've never seen so much b+++++++ in my life . yesterday the runs sucked and today everything switched to colder runs and now we have an op run that shows a different evolution and people b++++ and moan . The difference this run was the western ridge . it was further west vs 18z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Its not as good, but its not awful like some past runs we have had either. I think that is a fair assessment. It isn't bad by any means. But it is a disappointment vs the last two runs. Maybe it will revert back by 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Good news is there is still a SSW event in the strat maps. I don't believe energy sitting over the SW half the time. Yeah I'm hoping it stays through the 144hr time frame and just doesn't get pushed back...unfortunately a lot is riding on the SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 18z GFS wants to give us a ULL/pretty big system by the end of the run, too late buddy, ridge is gone cold is gone...On to the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Why do you think it dumps more east than what is shown tonight? There are many, but I will give you one..... The southeast ridge should be of less influence during a Nino year. Without a southeast ridge, there is nothing to hold the cold air at bay. With highs dropping down as strong as what's being modeled, it must come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 No OMG this time. The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now. I've never seen so much b+++++++ in my life . yesterday the runs sucked and today everything switched to colder runs and now we have an op run that shows a different evolution and people b++++ and moan . The difference this run was the western ridge . it was further west vs 18z and 12z 12Z and 18Z were so perfectly sexy (as you might put it) that this 0Z run was likely going to disappoint since the runs typically fluctuate. I wouldn't be surprised if 12Z/18Z returns in a later run. Yes, it is nothing like that garbage 0Z of two days back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 CMC looks to me like it's probably going to be better. PV looks more favorable in central Canada. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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