J Paul Gordon Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Oh really, it's just the da**ed weather. Christmas for some of has nothing to do with what's falling from the sky. Think I might have already mentioned it, but you can start looking forward to Russian orthodox Christmas on January 7. By then the pattern change may be in place and the ground will be white. By the way aren't these events far enough out to be subject to some model changes--never mind reality changes? Can someone help out with some analogs of years where a similar pattern to what we've had did a big flip? I know this gets done regularly around here but call it suicide prevention...and for the grinches who troll through how about some analogs where the ever ready bunny of GLCs never quit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is the emergency meltdown system. This isnot a test. Ladies and gentlemen the Director requests that you melt down in a more orderly fashion. There are 2 triage threads available to you, the dit meltdown thread or general banter. If this isn't sufficient Fella is available for one on one traumacounseling. If you are too far gone your account will e set that you can only read posts from Zeus. During this time of impending crisis please don't tap our precious forecasting resources. They are hard at work resurrecting a pattern you will find pleasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 sometimes it's like a soap opera in here. so much drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The only concern I have is the SE ridge at Day 10...it does appear to be progressive and that it will be pushed off the coast but the monster ridge over AK is a bit more west than you want sometimes for the East Coast...far enough it could enable a SE ridge to become a problem. I'd have to wait til I see ensembles or beyond Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 looks like the European model has some nice 60 to 70 knot wind gusts at 10 meters along the coast Damn that's scary, what's the inversion heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 With a Christmas Superbomb in Cleveland, OH there is normally a super inversion over SNE while the top of the inversion there are super winds up to 85 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Edduggs melted.....about a year since he melted last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 This is morphing to late January 78. Maybe we get the goods 2 weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 This has been the pattern since just after Thanksgiving. Notice we were still coming off the nice blocking in November, but heights already lowering in the GOAK. We then see a strong GOAK trough beginning to warm NAMR the following week This continues until the data stopped on 12/26. And look what continues into the 21st. The idea is that our typical El Nino GOAK trough got enhanced by strong MJO convection which drive a strong Pacific jet into the US. This causes a lot of rain and snow over the west coast and a pattern that featured milder wx across a good chunk of NAMR. We had HP overhead which kept us cool, but with a rather stale airmass. Of course there are fluctuations, there always will be, but the point is, key parts to the pattern in NAMR were persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 78 featured storm 1 on 1/20 that miraculously was snowy, Cleveland bomb a week later and 2/6/78 a week after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 All guidance aside...the law of averages says long period of nothing will eventually lead to long period of something, that said, long periods of warm air and cutters may lead to pattern change and long periods of benchmark storms and cold highs to the north, and blocking, and guidance seems to look that way, just need to be paitient speaking of blocking, whats the NAO looking like going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Damn that's scary, what's the inversion heights?[/quote what is the best source to access that information?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Of course 560 thickness means a nice inversion too. can someone explain the meteorology behind that quote? does higher thicknesses make it easier for winds to translate to the surface or more difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAO goes negative after the 25th. PNA stays positive throughout the rest of the month and the AO goes negative after the 25th. I go to twisterdata.com to look at inversion heights according to the NAM and GFS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 can someone explain the meteorology behind that quote? does higher thicknesses make it easier for winds to translate to the surface or more difficult Depends upon the inversion heights. If the winds generated by the storm are below the top of the inversion than those are the winds max, but if the highest winds are above the inversion then you will likely get weaker much weaker wind gusts. Scott, Will someone correct me if I'm wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The NAO goes negative after the 25th. PNA stays positive throughout the rest of the month and the AO goes negative after the 25th. I go to twisterdata.com to look at inversion heights according to the NAM and GFS models. We may not need a -NAO...if we indeed get a pattern similar to last winter for a few weeks, which we may with the massive EPO/PNA ridge we can survive without it, we won't get a blockbuster but we may get 2-3 smaller events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 can someone explain the meteorology behind that quote? does higher thicknesses make it easier for winds to translate to the surface or more difficult Because we may see a warm tongue aloft like we always do with SE gales. That can limit mixing. Otherwise, we wouldn't have trees lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Because we may see a warm tongue aloft like we always do with SE gales. That can limit mixing. Otherwise, we wouldn't have trees lol. Actually, we'd have super-trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Because we may see a warm tongue aloft like we always do with SE gales. That can limit mixing. Otherwise, we wouldn't have trees lol. tree tops whistling while a slight breeze tickles the nape stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Actually, we'd have super-trees. short stumpers like at the Tree lines on Mts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Probably one of those read some old super snow storm threads, revisit old David Ludlum books, check the dead sea scrolls, scotch whiskey and the KU book, watch frozen kind of week. Not The 15th, not the 25th, maybe the 30th? eventually it will come,I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 short stumpers like at the Tree lines on Mts Yeah, trunks would definitely be shorter and fatter, although I think if it only occurred during certain storms and not all the time like on mountains (plus the cold factor there) then they would be able to still form forests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 LOL.. trying to predict outcomes on winds 7-8 days out..when we have no idea how the atmosphere will look so far out. All we need to know now is there will be some big gusts everywhere if it happens as modeled..Anything more than that impossible to tell this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 LOL.. trying to predict outcomes on winds 7-8 days out..when we have no idea how the atmosphere will look so far out. All we need to know now is there will be some big gusts everywhere if it happens as modeled..Anything more than that impossible to tell this far out I don't think anybody is. Nothing wrong with stating the obvious inversions these have with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 The hemispheric pattern now compared to 10 days from now is night and day. nah!! looks totally the same. this place sucks. lol, back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I don't think anyone is trying to predict the winds but I was asking several questions about how to interpret the model data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Yeah the inversion will be tough to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I don't think anybody is. Nothing wrong with stating the obvious inversions these have with them.No I know,, but we've also seem setups like this produce too. In December. Hopefully it trends east and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 nah!! looks totally the same. this place sucks. lol, back to lurking. It's unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 No I know,, but we've also seem setups like this produce too. In December. Hopefully it trends east and colderOr so far west that it can't scour out the cold in the deepest valleys of the north and we get a devastating Christmas ice miracle storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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