Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 My screen name right over my area.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 northern maine is a great spot NRCC posted this the other day: 90% at CAR, 68% here, 17% BOS... etc. Ice sucks, you know it I know it, sketchy is sketchy but I was talking about Christmas day, I know a lot of my peeps are going away this Christmas. Yeah I've skiied on some nasty ice and it sucked. Nothing worse to ski on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 That graph looks weird. BOS only 17%? That's too low. Albany and HFD equals probs?I doubt that. PVD better chance than BOS? Again, doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That graph looks weird. BOS only 17%? That's too low. Albany and HFD equals probs?I doubt that. PVD better chance than BOS? Again, doubt that. What do you think Logan's white Xmas probs are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 What do you think Logan's white Xmas probs are? Closer to 25-28% iirc. I guess it also depends on how they got the data or if there are flaws somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That graph looks weird. BOS only 17%? That's too low. Albany and HFD equals probs?I doubt that. PVD better chance than BOS? Again, doubt that.Boston sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 NRCC posted this the other day: 90% at CAR, 68% here, 17% BOS... etc. Yeah I've skiied on some nasty ice and it sucked. Nothing worse to ski on. I hope thats a temporary thing. Christmas week is a big week and often the time many kids first experience skiing. Refreshers seem to be in store, only a short lived washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Imagine if KBUF scored the cold side of that little elf on xmas eve, after what they saw in Novie? Man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 17% at logan and that area sounds right...I have very little memory of xmas snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just imagine the 90 knot low level jet with no inversion in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Imagine if KBUF scored the cold side of that little elf on xmas eve, after what they saw in Novie? Man... with all signs pointing 970 or below somebody is going to get smoked. There's Tips Cleveland Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 17% at logan and that area sounds right...I have very little memory of xmas snow I was wondering if it was a Logan thing...17% literally on the beach makes sense to me but Coastalwx is the resident expert. I could see like 17% at the ASOS out near the water and like 20-30% on the other side of Boston or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 17% at logan and that area sounds right...I have very little memory of xmas snowSECT and Boston tarmac near the ocean in December seem to have similar climo, once SSts fall Boston rakes it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was wondering if it was a Logan thing...17% literally on the beach makes sense to me but Coastalwx is the resident expert. I could see like 17% at the ASOS out near the water and like 20-30% on the other side of Boston or something.I often laugh at the jokes made about SECT, most are based on the NL Groton Montville shoreline communities which suffer mightly from the oceans influence, like Boston just a few miles inland can be another world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was wondering if it was a Logan thing...17% literally on the beach makes sense to me but Coastalwx is the resident expert. I could see like 17% at the ASOS out near the water and like 20-30% on the other side of Boston or something. I don't buy it. BOS loses it if there are onshore winds but most December snowy months happen due to north or NNE. East winds tube me as much as it does BOS. If it were ocean influence how come climo temps aren't all that much different BOS vs say chestnut hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Imagine if KBUF scored the cold side of that little elf on xmas eve, after what they saw in Novie? Man... ...Keep sending it west. The further away, the better. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I don't buy it. BOS loses it if there are onshore winds but most December snowy months happen due to north or NNE. East winds tube me as much as it does BOS. If it were ocean influence how come climo temps aren't all that much different BOS vs say chestnut hill?easy to look up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 easy to look up Looks at KU storms. That should tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks at KU storms. That should tell the tale.in 123 years Boston has had 1 inch or more 27 times on Dec 25th per Now data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ORH in 122 years 45 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That graph looks weird. BOS only 17%? That's too low. Albany and HFD equals probs?I doubt that. PVD better chance than BOS? Again, doubt that. Closer to 25-28% iirc. I guess it also depends on how they got the data or if there are flaws somehow. Yeah I don't know where the data is from, I would guess NCDC? But I don't know. From here: http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 in 123 years Boston has had 1 inch or more 27 times on Dec 25th per Now data So 22% then. ORH in 122 years 45 times 37%. Caveat I guess is the years are based on 1964-2013 for NRCC's study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was wondering if it was a Logan thing...17% literally on the beach makes sense to me but Coastalwx is the resident expert. I could see like 17% at the ASOS out near the water and like 20-30% on the other side of Boston or something.Yeah. I never realized how tight of a gradient it was for snowfall within Boston metro until I went to high school in North Cambridge. That area is 10mi or so northwest of my house in Southie that sits at 10 feet asl and 100 or so feet from boston harbor. Early in HS I used to take the T over. I can remember a few times getting on the train at Alewife or Porter with snow falling, then getting off at Broadway to a mix. That 25% Scott mentioned sounds right at a place like Cambridge or anywhere a little further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well the stat Steve through out is 22% which makes a little more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah I don't know where the data is from, I would guess NCDC? But I don't know. From here: http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/# Now data has it, calendar day summary. snow depth number of years threshold greater than 1. Happy to report the greatest occurrence of more than 6 inches of depth across SNE is on my birthday. Feb 10 th. A weenie is born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 So 22% then. 37%. Caveat I guess is the years are based on 1964-2013 for NRCC's study. Ok so that would make sense as to why we see different numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So 22% then. 37%. Caveat I guess is the years are based on 1964-2013 for NRCC's study. let me do just logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 let me do just logan15/78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ok this is crazy but maybe Kevin was on to something, the 3 days before and 3 after Christmas all exceeded 1 inch in depth more times than the 24th,25th , someone can check it themselves but seems pure luck has a statistical fact . Could the Grinch theory be real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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