JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I often laugh at the jokes made about SECT, most are based on the NL Groton Montville shoreline communities which suffer mightly from the oceans influence, like Boston just a few miles inland can be another world. I always used to (before kids) go down to Shennecossett Golf Course right on the water in Groton during the winter to play when all the other courses around were closed and snow covered. They sometimes closed the greens and tees but had temporaries and it cost pennies. Nice surprise this morning. 1.1 Looked at the radar loop when I woke up and figured you were doing nicely. Just the luck of where the better returns were this time. I had a very light coating on the car and away from the trees, but it is nice to see such a light snow actually stick to the ground, unlike November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You've expressed it, Scott has, Phil has, I have. Phil is not an active member of this forum, just to his own admittance comes in to see if Kevin is getting upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The forum bashing doesn't help matters. We literally get no reports in here. If there's ridiculous posts being made feel free to report a few. With that said, the crack down is on. We try to be lenient with the moderating, but sometimes the bad posts get out of control. I advise everyone to be in a stable mental state before hitting "post". If you see some of your complaining or weenie posts missing, take it as a hint. If you're getting moderated quite a bit I'll try to swing a PM explaining what the problem is. Let's have fun, but save the drama for your mama. This^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I always used to (before kids) go down to Shennecossett Golf Course right on the water in Groton during the winter to play when all the other courses around were closed and snow covered. They sometimes closed the greens and tees but had temporaries and it cost pennies. Looked at the radar loop when I woke up and figured you were doing nicely. Just the luck of where the better returns were this time. I had a very light coating on the car and away from the trees, but it is nice to see such a light snow actually stick to the ground, unlike November. I had nothing only .01 in the bucket, I was very surprised at Kevins pics, such a weenie spot. Congrats to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just throwing this out there, but you don't have to have a textbook Pacific to get a good storm. You do want some sort of a -NAO. This is prior to the Blizz of '78. Yes I'm sure this example raises in eyebrow, but look at the GOAK. However, ridging near AK and a -NAO. It's ok if we don't have a ridge in the GOAK that is strong enough for tropical fish to survive. preblizz.gif You don't want what the day 10 Euro is showing with that pig arse ridge and stout SE ridge. Need to shift all this E a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I know this is the GEFS, but it's quicker to break down the ridge a bit out west. But, note AK and Greenland. So, not only is the GEFS probably too fast in breaking this down, it doesn't hurt to have a s/w moving across the Plains with some big cold lurking along the nrn tier of the US. I guess that's the big picture that I have. We have no idea what it means for sensible wx, but it's the best we have to surmise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 You don't want what the day 10 Euro is showing with that pig arse ridge and stout SE ridge. Need to shift all this E a bit. f240.gif That's a product of that third storm which may not be any good for snow weenies regardless. I'm not worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 8m8 minutes ago Starting two see a k=2, or figure "8" response in geo-heights at 50mb from upcoming Eurasia warming event a la EC EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Why I am very surprised anyone would think this is not encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I really don't understand how anyone could review today's Ens package and worry. Recency Bias is a tempting mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Why I am very surprised anyone would think this is not encouraging A lot of people can't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 You could even add Dec '77...ok in the interior but garbage on the coast (sound familiar to the start of this winter?)...pattern was a bit colder that month, but still...no warning shots of an epic winter until well into January that season. I'd probably swap Feb 2005 with Dec 2004 too...crap month until Boxing Day...Feb at least had a lot of snow even if it's share of taint. But yeah, your general point if very true. Also, do you remember how much snow people had at this point in 2010? Most people hadn't recorded measurable yet, and if they did, it was under 2 inches. Really only '76-'77 had a pretty awesome pattern almost the whole way...but it did have an epic thaw in the first half of Mar '77 before going out like a Lion. I thought about adding Dec 1977....Dec 2004 slipped my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Dudes come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Recency Bias is a tempting mistress. Lol. It would have been better on the psyche if we hadn't been somewhat flukily saved from the December torch. Expectations would be turned towards January, and not about how December could have worked out but hasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Dec 2004 was pretty lousy. We were lucky to get the storm to curl up and nail ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Why I am very surprised anyone would think this is not encouraging We've been talking about that for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The forum bashing doesn't help matters. We literally get no reports in here. If there's ridiculous posts being made feel free to report a few. With that said, the crack down is on. We try to be lenient with the moderating, but sometimes the bad posts get out of control. I advise everyone to be in a stable mental state before hitting "post". If you see some of your complaining or weenie posts missing, take it as a hint. If you're getting moderated quite a bit I'll try to swing a PM explaining what the problem is. Let's have fun, but save the drama for your mama. I'd also add that it fine for people to melt down over the pattern or complain, but don't do it in here. Go to the banter thread. We have it for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 A lot of people can't see that. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 And as I said, I know this doesn't apply inland, but plenty of winters even through Jan were tough in this area until Feb. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ?Not what you posted, just the post-240 hour ECENS. So it wouldn't have factored into their decision whether to jump off the weenie cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Not what you posted, just the post-240 hour ECENS. So it wouldn't have factored into their decision whether to jump off the weenie cliff. The Brits are Nazis with their data, but if you ever want to look a good 500mb anomalies etc, tropicaltidbits is real good. You can see the whole GFS ensemble package there. Hr 240 of the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We've been talking about that for a few days. Stout a signal as November was only in the depth of winter. You nailed this Scott, transitional time. I also would like to point out that no model shows just a standard fropa for Christmas. IMHO we need to watch that the next few days closely, obviously because of travel impact but also because there is inkling for CNE NNE of a rapid change over as secondary takes over. Can Ens were pretty jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yeah..it's not very often you get more snow in november than in December..speaking for my backyard at least. This year would make 12 such cases for the BOS area since 1891. Basically 1 out of every 10 years. Actually more common in ORH, with 18 cases (including this year) since 1892 with all those missing years in the late 90s and early 2000s. Roughly 3 out of every 20 years. Up this way, CON and PWM are very similar to ORH, somewhere between 1 out of 10 and 3 out of 20. BTV is a little more frequent than that, 4 out of 25 years. But in reality we're talking one storm here or there. It's typically one large storm in November that does the bulk of that lifting. I think that just highlights how hostile conditions can be around here in December. It's a handful of systems during a time of year where a degree or two can flip it either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Brits are Nazis with their data, but if you ever want to look a good 500mb anomalies etc, tropicaltidbits is real good. You can see the whole GFS ensemble package there. Hr 240 of the EC ensembles.That's exactly what I use now, found it about 2 months ago but then it was offline for a bit. The site is awesome.But when I am looking at +240 model output and all I have is the GEFS, I am definitely feeling like I am trying to run a race with one leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Brits are Nazis with their data, but if you ever want to look a good 500mb anomalies etc, tropicaltidbits is real good. You can see the whole GFS ensemble package there. Hr 240 of the EC ensembles. Thats a great site but one of my favorites with clusters and tons of free stuff if you click around is this one http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefsts&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t850&HH=&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=71624&TABLE=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we had any type of airmass at all, then Xmas eve would be a bit more interesting...with some low prob potential for redevelopment...but even with a cutter there would e front ender and icing to worry about. But this airmass really limits that potential to the far north and also of more nuisance variety. If the whole thing ended up further east, then there could be some accumulating snow inland but right now you certainly wouldn't forecast that. Right now, that storm is just part of taking your lumps as part of the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Stout a signal as November was only in the depth of winter. You nailed this Scott, transitional time. I also would like to point out that no model shows just a standard fropa for Christmas. IMHO we need to watch that the next few days closely, obviously because of travel impact but also because there is inkling for CNE NNE of a rapid change over as secondary takes over. Can Ens were pretty jacked. There is a cluster of GFS ens 20% that are pretty interesting, just shows that the final coffin 6 days from now is not nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Stout a signal as November was only in the depth of winter. You nailed this Scott, transitional time. I also would like to point out that no model shows just a standard fropa for Christmas. IMHO we need to watch that the next few days closely, obviously because of travel impact but also because there is inkling for CNE NNE of a rapid change over as secondary takes over. Can Ens were pretty jacked. I didn't nail anything..lol. Just looking at the models and using past experience. I feel like we all sort of fall for the same trap when things change. It never occurs as quick as we hope or even as quick as models show. I'm half joking about the fropa, but not sure how much of a bomb like yesterday's model had, will occur. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 What happened to the GLC Christmas monster on the models? And what does this mean regarding the pattern changes ahead? Just tell me what page to go to if this has already been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 What happened to the GLC Christmas monster on the models? And what does this mean regarding the pattern changes ahead? Just tell me what page to go to if this has already been discussed. The disturbance on the 22nd-23rd that most guidance didn't really see amplifying til yesterday sort of ruins it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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