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Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15

djr5001

By djr5001,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Your welcome, I also should have added the disclaimer about the models being consistently inconsistent with things and making the mid range very difficult to deal with. The last few runs of the Euro have traded off the amplified storm to the lakes for a more progressive and more unphased southern wave that kicks out underneath PA while having more of a broader area of higher heights across the western states vs an anchored highly amplified ridge off the west coast. The 0z run the other night put PA in position for a decent size snow/mix event, while the last couple runs have been much weaker with the southern wave and keeping the brunt of precip south. The GFS has been maintaining a lakes cutter and today's Canadian has a low to the lakes with an attempted miller-B evolution. I don't have access to the fabled ||GFS but I think it had a pretty snowy solution last night for the Mid Atlantic and us (saw a snowmap over in the mid-atl thread).

At any rate, the models have a plethora of options for this potential weekend system now. I think we are still pretty vulnerable for a cutter if the northern stream gets involved too much. But a storm that cuts might still cause some freezing issues in portions of the region on the front end anyways as the low level cold probably hangs tough like it almost always does. This could end up being a sneaky event.

Completely agree Mag. I'm not going to sugar coat it, but this pattern has been very depressing, but the long range (once again) does look like it's trying to get its act together for the east coast. I'm almost inclined not to believe it seeing as people have brought up this same idea the past 3 weeks, and the pattern change hasn't verified. The fact we have had a positive AO index and a negative PNA, this isn't what you want on the east coast anywhere let alone PA. Hell, not even New England has been able to cash in recently. So where does that leave us?

I've looked at the last runs of the GFS and Para GFS and have found basically a big lump of coal in terms of storms down the road. The cold shot that comes in for the weekend is very transient due to a positive NAO regime that has been the Achilles heel for long lasting stable cold air masses. All the nice high pressures off to our north have been in and out in 2 days. This isn't like last year with a beautiful long lasting -EPO with a PV over Hudson keeping us in the cold with continuous shots throughout winter. It doesn't look like that will be our case this year which doesn't bode well.

People have been harking at this SSW event will change things and if I hear Judah Cohen one more time I swear. SSW does have an impact on weather, I can believe that, but the research is still far limited for people to come out and say that something is definite and will happen. Maybe the pattern will finally flip due to that. Maybe it won't. No one knows. I'll say this, December will go down as an utter disappointment in terms of cold and snow. January for the first half look continuously bleak outside of a cold shot later on this week. The limited blocking pattern is not doing anyone any favors and the west is capitalizing. If that remains status quo, it could be a long winter. But it only takes one big one to at least add a silver lining to what could be the winter that came too late. I'm not ever going to completely throw in the towel. February to me is the month where everything can change in a heartbeat. Over the past decade, that seems to be the money month for storms. If things are still bad by mid February, I'd call it quits. Until then, I guess we just have to be patient, but for many, that is wearing thin already.

If anyone has anything they want to comment or add, feel free. This is just some late night thoughts I had that I wanted to share.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Completely agree Mag. I'm not going to sugar coat it, but this pattern has been very depressing, but the long range (once again) does look like it's trying to get its act together for the east coast. I'm almost inclined not to believe it seeing as people have brought up this same idea the past 3 weeks, and the pattern change hasn't verified. The fact we have had a positive AO index and a negative PNA, this isn't what you want on the east coast anywhere let alone PA. Hell, not even New England has been able to cash in recently. So where does that leave us?

I've looked at the last runs of the GFS and Para GFS and have found basically a big lump of coal in terms of storms down the road. The cold shot that comes in for the weekend is very transient due to a positive NAO regime that has been the Achilles heel for long lasting stable cold air masses. All the nice high pressures off to our north have been in and out in 2 days. This isn't like last year with a beautiful long lasting -EPO with a PV over Hudson keeping us in the cold with continuous shots throughout winter. It doesn't look like that will be our case this year which doesn't bode well.

People have been harking at this SSW event will change things and if I hear Judah Cohen one more time I swear. SSW does have an impact on weather, I can believe that, but the research is still far limited for people to come out and say that something is definite and will happen. Maybe the pattern will finally flip due to that. Maybe it won't. No one knows. I'll say this, December will go down as an utter disappointment in terms of cold and snow. January for the first half look continuously bleak outside of a cold shot later on this week. The limited blocking pattern is not doing anyone any favors and the west is capitalizing. If that remains status quo, it could be a long winter. But it only takes one big one to at least add a silver lining to what could be the winter that came too late. I'm not ever going to completely throw in the towel. February to me is the month where everything can change in a heartbeat. Over the past decade, that seems to be the money month for storms. If things are still bad by mid February, I'd call it quits. Until then, I guess we just have to be patient, but for many, that is wearing thin already.

If anyone has anything they want to comment or add, feel free. This is just some late night thoughts I had that I wanted to share.

 

I get as bummed out as the next snow lover when we get into funks like this, but at the end of the day mother nature does what she does and you can't really do anything about it. Last winter would have and will be hard to replicate from a consistent cold standpoint. It got cold in mid-late November last winter and that basic pattern largely persevered into March with a steady dose of decent snow/ice events for us in Jan/Feb, before the Mid-Altantic cashed in during March at our expense with a buried storm track. It just hasn't worked out that way thus far this winter, although as I said a couple posts ago.. we had a quick start and an early event right before Thanksgiving as well as the cut-off storm that probably kept a big torch at bay from the northeast pretty much that whole week.

 

It's very hard to pinpoint any one reason as the smoking gun to our lackluster start, especially if you want to compare to last winter. If one looks at the usual teleconnections there generally isn't a big difference between them so far save for the EPO going more positive during this December (there was a leveling off period from being negative last December too) coinciding with the west coast and California in particular getting hammered with storms. Basically this year has seemed to act a little more like one would expect in the east with a +NAO/AO and is also a lesson in the index numerical value not telling the whole story.

 

The MJO could be having more influence this year than it did last year.. it's currently residing in phase 4 (near phase 5) and forecast by most guidance to generally head into phase 5 at some magnitude. That happens to be the general region where the Asian Air plane is missing and has had alot of convection affecting the search area. At any rate, phases 4-6 are crappy phases for the eastern continental US that very highly correlate to a torched east coast.. or at the very least persistent SE ridging. It had already took a lap through 4-6 in early December.  Could be why the El nino has been "acting like a Nina" as I have seen alluded to in other posts. We didn't have much MJO influence at all last winter from what I can recall (spent alot of time in the circle). Just another part of the puzzle, but a piece that might be having some say right now. I've also saw the highly -QBO referenced as well, and i'll be the first to admit i'm not very well versed on that teleconnection.. but a look through of previous years doesn't really show me anything definitive IMO. The nearest Nov/Dec with values near where we have them this year was 2005, which was a fairly snowy month. Conversely, there were some crappy winters (94-95, 01-02, Dec 06, etc) that had low negative or positive values. 

 

Like I've mentioned in my post the other day, I still see positives going forward. We do have some very cold air on our side of the world up in Canada to be tapped and we will be pretty chilly this week and the cold looks to remain available. Just gotta work on getting some storms.. and I think we will eventually be OK as we get into deep winter. Speaking of cold, I saw you mention about the SSW and its heavy mentioning. My comment on that is that a SSW correlates well to dumping cold air on the mid-latitudes.. it just doesn't necessarily mean the east coast can have the front row seat for it. Could be in our neck of the woods or could be Asia or Europe. But anyways, we still have plenty of time and I've seen worse starts in our region. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Thanks Mag. Most of those were just thoughts off the top of my head before I went to bed. This has been a rough patch of boring weather we've been tangled up in and I just thought to spruce up some conversation. I still think this winter can be had, but it's a 50/50 shot in my opinion. So far, things keep changing for the worse and forecasters always say to stick with continuity in the long range unless an obvious change is approaching, so I'm just going to maintain just that. February is the still the month I want to see unfold. January 1st half looks colder than December, but the storm threats with no blocking will lead to more possibilities of cutters and over amplified storms that change snow over to ice/rain. The second half of January into February could lead to better snow possibilities, but that looks to still be up in the air. 

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djr5001

djr5001

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FYI for those interested from an email for some MOS mailing list ...

 

Dear MOS users,

 

As you may be aware NCEP will be implementing an upgrade of the Global Forecast System in January 2015.  A Technical Implementation Notice for the GFS model upgrade can be viewed *here* <http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-46gfs_aaa.htm>.

 

To mitigate the impact of the model upgrade on the MOS guidance, MDL has performed a refresh of the GFS MOS system for the cool season utilizing all parallel and retrospective data that was made available by EMC.  This refresh includes updated equations for temperature, dewpoint, daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature, winds, probability of precipitation occurrence, precipitation type, and snowfall at METAR sites.

Guidance for maximum and minimum temperature at COOP sites also was redeveloped for the cool season.  In addition, stations which now contain sufficient reports for statistical calibration have been added to the short-range and extended-range GFS MOS text and BUFR messages - this includes several sites that have been requested for TAF support.  A smaller number of sites that have stopped reporting have been removed from the GFS MOS text and BUFR messages.  A webpage outlining the station changes and equation updates for this cool season GFS MOS refresh can be viewed *here* <http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/2014refresh/gfsmos2014.php>.

Side-by-side comparisons of the operational and parallel GFS MOS text bulletins for all cycles can be viewed *here <http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php> *(note: this site may not update when the WCOSS development platform is not available).

 

Due to a very short sample of cool season retrospective output being available for the 0600 and 1800 UTC cycles, users are advised that the MOS guidance for these cycles is not tuned as well to the new version of the GFS and may be somewhat degraded.  The developments for all cycles required using a mixed sample of old and retrospective model data to obtain stable equations.

 

Guidance for Mesonet sites was not updated with this refresh and thus may be degraded when the model upgrade is implemented in January.  Although no text products are produced for Mesonet sites, they do influence the Gridded MOS guidance.  Until guidance for Mesonet stations can be redeveloped, steps are being taken to reduce the influence of these sites on the Gridded MOS analysis for temperature and wind.

 

The cool season GFS MOS refresh is scheduled to be implemented coincident with the model upgrade in January 2015.  For additional details regarding the GFS MOS refresh for the cool season please see our *Technical Implementation Notice* <http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-47gfs_mos_cool_season_aaa.htm>.

A refresh of the GFS MOS system for the warm season is planned for March 2015.  The warm season refresh will include updated Mesonet guidance.

 

Please let us know if you have any questions or concerns regarding the upcoming changes to the GFS MOS system.

 

Sincerely,

 

Phil Shafer

GFS MOS Team Lead

MDL / Statistical Modeling Branch

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I-83 BLIZZARD

I-83 BLIZZARD

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35 crisp degrees outside today.  Since there is no real snow in sight for the next week or so I will relish in the fact that it is dry out.  Seems like it rains almost all the time, or it is otherwise soggy or cloudy.  After our nice little snow event down here in November winter has been absent.  Weather has been like Seattle climate on steroids.  Took advantage again today to play some ball with my kid in the park and fly my new Christmas toy drone.  

 

View of Stewartstown PA today. 

post-1187-0-49449800-1419975813_thumb.jp

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

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35 crisp degrees outside today.  Since there is no real snow in sight for the next week or so I will relish in the fact that it is dry out.  Seems like it rains almost all the time, or it is otherwise soggy or cloudy.  After our nice little snow event down here in November winter has been absent.  Weather has been like Seattle climate on steroids.  Took advantage again today to play some ball with my kid in the park and fly my new Christmas toy drone.  

 

View of Stewartstown PA today. 

 

(...sorry for the OT but no one has been posting around here for a while so I thought I'd liven things up a bit...)

 

Hey Blizz...

 

What model drone did you get?  I've been looking at the Syma X5C-1 to dip my toes in the quadcopter waters.  Been watching a ton of vids on youtube.  These things are amazing.  I don't have any experience with RC aircraft but I'm anxious to get started.

 

Zak has the Phantom Vision 2 +.  I think my longterm goal is to shoot for something like the Phantom, but at a cost of around $1200 it will be a while before I get one of them.  The aerial photography taken from the Phantom is nothing short of breathtaking.  Check out this vid I found on youtube:   http://youtu.be/zVmLbVMS3hQ

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I-83 BLIZZARD

I-83 BLIZZARD

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(...sorry for the OT but no one has been posting around here for a while so I thought I'd liven things up a bit...)

Hey Blizz...

What model drone did you get? I've been looking at the Syma X5C-1 to dip my toes in the quadcopter waters. Been watching a ton of vids on youtube. These things are amazing. I don't have any experience with RC aircraft but I'm anxious to get started.

Zak has the Phantom Vision 2 +. I think my longterm goal is to shoot for something like the Phantom, but at a cost of around $1200 it will be a while before I get one of them. The aerial photography taken from the Phantom is nothing short of breathtaking. Check out this vid I found on youtube:

Syma x5c1. Can't beat the value. Phantoms can be prone to fly off if there is unexpected wifi interference. They have also been coming down in price. Phantom is king but If you lose it it hurts. Syma x5c 1 is the way to go to start. jjrc h8c is my next drone. For virtually the same price it is considered more capable than the Syma. I did a range mod to the wifi antenna on the Syma and will do one to the jjrc. Works great! Great starter quad without the stress of losing one!
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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Might have to watch for icing issues in the central third of the state Saturday in the initial stages of our latest cutter to affect PA. How long will depend on how long the high to the north holds out as it's progged to be fairly strong (1040ish). I would expect winter wx and/or freezing rain advisories in the JST-AOO-UNV-IPT corridor as well as north central counties.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a more extensive ZR event unfold in more localized fashion either in the eastern edge of the Laurels region or in the north central. Just seems like there's potential for some 31-32ºF temps to hang on for awhile in the usual vulnerable icing areas. Either way its likely to be a very cold rain for most of the rest of the event east of the Alleghenies as it'll remained dammed up. 

 

Focus then turns toward the middle of next week as cold resets and we go on Clipper watch. GFS and Euro both have had a northern stream wave affecting the area in the Tues-Wed timeframe. GFS more impressive with QPF attm, but wouldn't take much precip with the cold air available to deliver a state wide few to several inches if we can get a well tracked system. This is the type that everyone including western PA can have a good event out of, but the low has to track over or just under PA. Either way, hopefully something puts some white on the ground by that point.. cuz it looks very cold later next week. Today's Euro in fact drives sub 490 thickness and less than -25ºC 850 temps into all of PA near the Thurs timeframe. That's getting comparable to last winters stuff if that were to come to fruition. 

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djr5001

djr5001

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Might have to watch for icing issues in the central third of the state Saturday in the initial stages of our latest cutter to affect PA. How long will depend on how long the high to the north holds out as it's progged to be fairly strong (1040ish). I would expect winter wx and/or freezing rain advisories in the JST-AOO-UNV-IPT corridor as well as north central counties.  Wouldn't be surprised to see a more extensive ZR event unfold in more localized fashion either in the eastern edge of the Laurels region or in the north central. Just seems like there's potential for some 31-32ºF temps to hang on for awhile in the usual vulnerable icing areas. Either way its likely to be a very cold rain for most of the rest of the event east of the Alleghenies as it'll remained dammed up. 

 

Focus then turns toward the middle of next week as cold resets and we go on Clipper watch. GFS and Euro both have had a northern stream wave affecting the area in the Tues-Wed timeframe. GFS more impressive with QPF attm, but wouldn't take much precip with the cold air available to deliver a state wide few to several inches if we can get a well tracked system. This is the type that everyone including western PA can have a good event out of, but the low has to track over or just under PA. Either way, hopefully something puts some white on the ground by that point.. cuz it looks very cold later next week. Today's Euro in fact drives sub 490 thickness and less than -25ºC 850 temps into all of PA near the Thurs timeframe. That's getting comparable to last winters stuff if that were to come to fruition. 

May be best set up for Lake Effect for northern and western PA so far this winter.  After that huge event around Buffalo and Lake Erie temps dropped so quickly it is amazing that they really have not changed much since.  I thought for sure we would have significant ice by now and that is not the case at all.  -25C at 850mb with water surface temps above 0C is quite the temperature gradient.  Wonder if wind direction will cooperate enough for someone to get some good snow.

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