CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm just hoping to get a few drops of rain with the weekend system. Oh, and whoever put this smiley in as an option is AWESOME!!!! <3 :cliff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I'm just hoping to get a few drops of rain with the weekend system. Oh, and whoever put this smiley in as an option is AWESOME!!!! <3 :cliff: I agree with the above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someone remind me....what are we arguing about? 1) Winter is cancelled 2) Models rush things in the LR 3) GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day 4) We are bored out of our minds 5) All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someone remind me....what are we arguing about? 1) Winter is cancelled 2) Models rush things in the LR 3) GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day 4) We are bored out of our minds 5) All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb Number 4. Definitely number 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I too think it is 4. Soon enough yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Number 4. Definitely number 4. I too think it is 4. Soon enough yall LOL...if we are not tracking a legit winter storm for someone in the SE (TN/GA/NC/SC) by Xmas day for around new years I will tattoo "Brick for President" on my backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Banter is strong . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someone remind me....what are we arguing about? 1) Winter is cancelled 2) Models rush things in the LR 3) GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day 4) We are bored out of our minds 5) All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb Probably number 2 and 5. Definitely number 4. I am bored like that every day at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LOL...if we are not tracking a legit winter storm for someone in the SE (TN/GA/NC/SC) by Xmas day for around new years I will tattoo "Brick for President" on my backside. We have this in writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That's what my motto is going to be now. No reason to not remain positive. I am just going to ignore the haters from now on.So you aren't going to be miserable if we get cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So you aren't going to be miserable if we get cold and dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 LOL...if we are not tracking a legit winter storm for someone in the SE (TN/GA/NC/SC) by Xmas day for around new years I will tattoo "Brick for President" on my backside. Well we wont be tracking anything until mid Jan at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That was actually funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Just so we know what we're all talking about...the pattern change is now well within 10 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I must say... Brick's gif game is on point today. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If they all show a deep freezer for the 12z run, I'm still going to feel the same way if it's 240 hours out. Now when we get into the <192 hours out, it's a different story. Have you guys not noticed we aren't making any progress if the pattern change being showed is always at 384 or 240? Btw, what if all the models starting showing warm at 12z? True, I get what you're saying here and it makes sense to be skeptical, I'm not disputing that. However, I would imagine there have times, not just during the Winter season, but any season of the year where a significant pattern change was expected to occur exactly around a certain date/holiday, only to either be delayed or not materialize at all. My point is, it appears the pattern change is going to be a bit slower than originally thought. Imo, I still think there's more good that outweighs the bad in favor of a colder pattern change, but again that's jmo which doesn't mean crap when it comes to what the overall result will be. Also if all the model guidance at 12z advertised warmth in the LR, I would be saying, "Oh, it's possible it could be warmer weather coming instead of an arctic plunge, that's something to keep in mind once we get closer to that time period." If it verifies, it is what it is. If it doesn't, it's still ok. I'm usually cautiously optimistic every winter because I know I live in a place where up north they could get one clipper to blow through to match/exceed my overall snowfall average so my expectations is always set VERY LOW going into Winter. Whether it's a cold or warm winter overall, it's just like hurricane season, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable winter. That's how it was during the 2008-09 Winter. If it wasn't for the 4 inches I got on March 1, 2009, that would have been one of the sh*ttiest winters ever. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Number 4. Definitely number 4. When everything is "3 weeks out" this is what walking into this forum feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 When everything is "3 weeks out" this is what walking into this forum feels like. Still amazes me how he never got a splinter in his eye during all that. Talk about luck!!! Something we don't have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 GFS still looks good, cold, and blocky. Nice -EPO and -NAO and cold east look. We get the Christmas storm out of the way and endure another cutter after that, but in between, it's cold. And after, it's cold. Nice split flow too. Sounds positive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Well we wont be tracking anything until mid Jan at least. You forgot to add the ending to that statement... "Well we wont be tracking anything until mid Jan at least, so..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lol at DT.....@DTVaWeatherman: "I am beginning to have doubts.... when does the cold air REALLY get into the east and stays ?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 A crack in the armor? But that is exactly what people are worried about happening for the rest of winter. Looks like the system this weekend might not be a big deal. And then the one for Christmas might not, either. I was hoping these were going to be the start of the pattern change to more winter weather. Now it doesn't seem so sure. I really hope this doesn't end up being a winter where everything that could go wrong does. It would be one of the biggest busts and head-scratchers ever if it doesn't end up being big after all the consensus from mets saying this winter will be a good one based on the factors we have going into it. I just don't want to get into the game of pushing the pattern flip back over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 And another: Nothing to see here so far. Most mets said at the beginning of December that the pattern really would not get good for winter until after Christmas. I think the shot we had in November got expectations high. Plus, the consensus from all the mets saying this winter should be a big one. So many said we should have above average to much above average snow. It's still early, but I think some of the excitement is turning into worry. Just a couple of days ago everyone was hyped about the period between Christmas and New Year's, and now that doesn't appear to be the case. I just hate if everything keeps getting pushed back.Hopefully things will start rocking in January and go through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 hey at least I beat Bastardi posting about the -AO/-NAO coming earlier on teleconnections and talking about the -EPO, beat him by an entire day. I feel like I need a medal or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 hey at least I beat Bastardi posting about the -AO/-NAO coming earlier on teleconnections and talking about the -EPO, beat him by an entire day. I feel like I need a medal or something. Part of me is like..................Nice work! A+ Kudos The other part of me worries about you thinking like JB. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we get a stout -EPO shouldn't that prevent a SE ridge? I thought that is what happened last year whenever a -PNA was present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Lol at DT.....@DTVaWeatherman: "I am beginning to have doubts.... when does the cold air REALLY get into the east and stays ?" I think he has legitimate concerns, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we get a stout -EPO shouldn't that prevent a SE ridge? I thought that is what happened last year whenever a -PNA was present? There was also the massive SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think he has legitimate concerns, personally. Not saying he doesn't, but if the next couple of days to a week of runs head more favorably and lead to a nice winter period, he's going to look silly. It's not like the ensembles look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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