Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Watching the npac 850 polar view loop is down right crazy. It's a java plug so I can't post the link to the animation. Click loop all and drool http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=polar&cycle=20141209%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Watching the npac 850 polar view loop is down right crazy. It's a java plug so I can't post the link to the animation. Click loop all and drool http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=polar&cycle=20141209%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Looks very progressive to me and a setup ripe for disappointment (rain) since heights in the atlantic are non existent towards Christmas (verbatim). Seems to me that the lack of a negative NAO, and AO (low snowcover) will hurt our chance until at least mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looks very progressive to me and a setup ripe for disappointment (rain) since heights in the atlantic are non existent towards Christmas (verbatim). Seems to me that the lack of a negative NAO, and AO (low snowcover) will hurt our chance until at least mid January. It's not perfect but verbatim the epo ridge goes all the way to the n pole and the AO is negative with surface HP planted over the pole. and multiple shortwaves tracking below our latitude. With such tight spacing any departing storm can become a transient 50/50 or setup confluence to our north. The nao is troublesome but this pattern is more ripe for MA snow than disappointment. The pattern we're in now is a good example of that. I'll take my chances with this. Perfect patterns are rare anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I recall us doing pretty well last year without a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 years with snowstorms during a el nino December usually had a very negative AO at or around the date of it...1963, 1969, 1976, 2002 had a negative AO...1963 was just after a -4 AO number but was rising fast...I'd be more confident if A negative AO was forecast...todays forecast is a little better than yesterdays but it changes every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 havent seen the maps yet but euro has 0.00 inches of precip after today through day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 havent seen the maps yet but euro has 0.00 inches of precip after today through day 10 and its warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 havent seen the maps yet but euro has 0.00 inches of precip after today through day 10 some showers along a cold front by day 11 tho. edit: maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 and its warm. Didn't see a warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Didn't see a warm run you are right. its not cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 not terribly warm but not great overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some drying out would be nice.. Looking forward to some EPS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro ens holding the same look down the line as other guidance. MSLP mean shows 2 coastals. 17-18th and 21-22nd. Both have decent tracks but obviously available cold is the bigger concern. Things to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro ens holding the same look down the line as other guidance. MSLP mean shows 2 coastals. 17-18th and 21-22nd. Both have decent tracks but obviously available cold is the bigger concern. Things to watch at least. any update on Dec 5,2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 any update on Dec 5,2015? You going to start a winter 2015-2016 thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 any update on Dec 5,2015? Next year will be the first in a long string of warm/wet/snowless winters unless it's this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Next year will be the first in a long string of warm/wet/snowless winters unless it's this year I foresee a 02/03 and 09/10 combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Next year will be the first in a long string of warm/wet/snowless winters unless it's this yearWe're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Next year will be the first in a long string of warm/wet/snowless winters unless it's this year Nino hangover. 2016 will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I could live with the ridge bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nino hangover. 2016 will be rockin JB is already putting out there that he believes 3 of the next 5 winters will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 JB is already putting out there that he believes 3 of the next 5 winters will be warm. Should help with the notion that he always goes cold. He had been saying for a few years that this winter and last would be cold. If I remember right, at the time, a lot of that reasoning was due to solar. Lately, he says it's due to the kind if ENSO he was expecting. Anyway, the verdict is still out for this year, so we'll see how he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB is already putting out there that he believes 3 of the next 5 winters will be warm. Inside look at him dictating the 5-yr winter outlook to his team per this image on Twitter earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Should help with the notion that he always goes cold. He had been saying for a few years that this winter and last would be cold. If I remember right, at the time, a lot of that reasoning was due to solar. Lately, he says it's due to the kind if ENSO he was expecting. Anyway, the verdict is still out for this year, so we'll see how he does. I don't remember exactly so I'll be careful of what I say, but my best recollection of his theory was something along these lines. Back in 2010 just following the huge mid-atlantic he starting saying that 3 out of the next 5 would be colder than average for most of the country and specifically 12/13 would be the worst. He said this 12/13 could end up severe. There was some crazy cold in early Spring 2013 but it was centered in the northern plains and upper mid-west. So he missed on that one. I think you're right about the solar theory for what would cause the series of cold winters. As he frequently does he referenced the winters of the late 70's as a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Inside look at him dictating the 5-yr winter outlook to his team per this image on Twitter earlier: The 6-12 for State College he had today didn't work out. Nice image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 JB is already putting out there that he believes 3 of the next 5 winters will be warm. His guess is as good as anyone's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 His guess is as good as anyone's I'll take that as a compliment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't remember exactly so I'll be careful of what I say, but my best recollection of his theory was something along these lines. Back in 2010 just following the huge mid-atlantic he starting saying that 3 out of the next 5 would be colder than average for most of the country and specifically 12/13 would be the worst. He said this 12/13 could end up severe. There was some crazy cold in early Spring 2013 but it was centered in the northern plains and upper mid-west. So he missed on that one. I think you're right about the solar theory for what would cause the series of cold winters. As he frequently does he referenced the winters of the late 70's as a comparison. Yeah, now that you say that I remember him showing graphics of 70s patterns on his Accuweather vids. He loves some 70s comparisons, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I could live with the ridge bridge That's a massive -EPO ridge, hopefully all the models trend this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro looks like its trying to develop a Gulf Miller A day 10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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