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DDweatherman

Thanksgiving Eve Coastal Part Deux

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I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked)  And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday.  Is is really going to go that quickly?

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Too bad we have to wait 2 hours for the euro....

I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns.

My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime

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I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked)  And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday.  Is is really going to go that quickly?

GFS only shows 0.06" of QPF at DCA after 1 p.m. - if that's right we're looking at just a few hours of wet snow, max.  Would be pretty underwhelming.

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I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns.

My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime

 

tried to get a cell phone pic of the clownmap on cable news during the "wait for ferguson".. came out cloudy. still a complete joke nonetheless.

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Feel sorry for the peeps in the first thread that had hundreds of posts and will get 1/8 inch on their trash can lids and wet roads.

I'll get to watch pretty snowfall all day, but won't need to worry about shoveling the slushy coating on hard surfaces.

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i play guitar between the 00z gfs and the euro...kills time fast

Sweet! I play the drums. We should start a band. Call ourselves Deformation--rim shot! Anyway...let's hope we can score some Euro love in a few hours.

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Feel sorry for the peeps in the first thread that had hundreds of posts and will get 1/8 inch on their trash can lids and wet roads.

I'll get to watch pretty snowfall all day, but won't need to worry about shoveling the slushy coating on hard surfaces.

 

but you live in Centreville...

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I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked)  And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday.  Is is really going to go that quickly?

"in-house" local news model? haha that's a good one.

 

When you have access to global models and the top weather minds in the country on this board, there is no need to turn on the local news for your weather.

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I don't understand why the in house models of ABC7 has the precip ending at 2pm (last time i checked) And now weather.com (like they are reliable (sarcastic scoff)) has precip ending before or right around sunset wednesday. Is is really going to go that quickly?

I haven't found those to be particularly helpful in the past, especially at that range. I wouldn't worry about cutoff time. It won't matter when it I ends if surface temps and rates can't produce.

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I didn't even look at the 0z gfs/nam panels. Just read the thread. After reading the 2/12-13 threads today the similar discos between models are almost identical in some ways. Certainley not the same setup but the camps are reruns.

My over under yesterday was 5". I'm dropping that to 4" for now but as usual we won't really know until gametime

People really do fall into predictable patterns here. You can usually guess when certain posters will appear after a bad model run.

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gfs is terrible haha...worst run of the day. How did this go from a 20 hour storm to a 6 hour storm?

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People really do fall into predictable patterns here. You can usually guess when certain posters will appear after a bad model run.

If dc-balt gets less than .9 qpf I'll consider the event a bust based on all guidance. Ptype is a different beast

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The Elizabeth Kubler-Ross stages of loss/grief/facing death: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. All too often we work through them as we anticipate a storm and our expectations change. 

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0z GFS snow totals are looking nice... although may be a bit overdone...

 

The WxBell algorithm for their snowmaps is flawed - it vastly overdoes snow totals, especially in marginal setups like this.  I think part of that is to generate social media hits - great marketing ploy by them.

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The WxBell algorithm for their snowmaps is flawed - it vastly overdoes snow totals, especially in marginal setups like this.  I think part of that is to generate social media hits - great marketing ploy by them.

How are the algorithms flawed?

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