Zeus Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'll take reliable sources of cold air for 300, Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'll take reliable sources of cold air for 300, Alex! Daily Double. Which nauseating poster founded the obnoxious acronym "AWT"?? For 500 s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 He's fine. I am just pushing the buttons that a certain poster grafted into his skin lol. LOL, my post count really illustrates the lack of passion. I'm fine, I resounded to a lack luster pattern for eastern areas since November. Once the Pacific cooperates, we'll right the ship. Some signs the NAO is trying its best to improve too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sure, but how many day 10 booms have gone bust. I mean yeah, there have been signals there..but I guess I wouldn't bother sending out a tweet full of excitement on a day 10 op. Well when the only person reading it is Kevin...enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Scott, I like the 17-18th period for a miller B! There's no cold air though...rain for coast most likely if it even happens...interior may pull out snow though. That system needs a lot of work to be anything more than a nuisance event. Particularly for the coast. As for Cape Cod, meaningful snow from that would be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 LOL, my post count really illustrates the lack of passion. I'm fine, I resounded to a lack luster pattern for eastern areas since November. Once the Pacific cooperates, we'll right the ship. Some signs the NAO is trying its best to improve too. It's definitely (for winter classical thinking) a terrible NP in the models... What's interesting is that it's at odds with the PNA ... The PNA is technically positive and scheduled to stay that way, but the WPO - EPO arc is just gone completely reversed from November. It almost smacks as an atmospheric reflex ... rebound event. After that super typhoon hooked up with a SPV out there, and sent a freakish pattern down stream for 10 days in November, it's like the pattern has gone the other direction ... perhaps for restoring/balancing heat/source sink at large scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 NCEP mentions the two streams in tenths that ring of "Hmmm ...if those ever got involved", but merely aren't modeled to at this time. That's code for don't toss possibilities. As I was just mentioning to Scott ... the PNA is predominately positive and that appears scheduled at all agencies to stay that way. So long as that is the case, the heights of western N/A could rebound higher at any time... It's just a matter of getting 140W into a supported wave structure and it would ..then, those two down stream features might change in future guidance. I'm just a little leery when a PNA is stoutly positive and the flow tries to be progressive - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It's definitely (for winter classical thinking) a terrible NP in the models... What's interesting is that it's at odds with the PNA ... The PNA is technically positive and scheduled to stay that way, but the WPO - EPO arc is just gone completely reversed from November. It almost smacks as an atmospheric reflex ... rebound event. After that super typhoon hooked up with a SPV out there, and sent a freakish pattern down stream for 10 days in November, it's like the pattern has gone the other direction ... perhaps for restoring/balancing heat/source sink at large scale. Well I do think that improves, but my guess is after Christmas. I know James is excited prior to Christmas, but 850 temps of -2 aren't going to cut it here on the coast. We are going to need a cold airmass. SSTs are almost 3-4F warmer than last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Well I do think that improves, but my guess is after Christmas. I know James is excited prior to Christmas, but 850 temps of -2 aren't going to cut it here on the coast. We are going to need a cold airmass. SSTs are almost 3-4F warmer than last year at this time. That's probably true... but that sort of detail is a different discussion for me. I'd say there's still chances there for additional events to track, which is all I really vest. Cold? yeah, I hear you -- might take some luck in terms of timing. This last event was seriously cosmically butt banged by bad timing, in that it was like 19F the day before a rainstorm that almost featured no transition. If there were some demonic god of weather at work, that entity could not have drubbed up a better metaphor for misery. Nice! I mean ...it was like 19F for 24 or more hours, then ...POOF! 33 and rain. It was a fun anomaly in general to follow, but for folks that could care less outside of a snowier event, that was pretty painful I'm sure. In fact, I'm ready for this pig to just wind down break toward a new paradigm. I could use a couple good days of up-down sunshine. Just ...something different. The interest in this thing wound down for me ... about 4am yesterday... Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 That's probably true... but that sort of detail is a different discussion for me. I'd say there's still chances there for additional events to track, which is all I really vest. Cold? yeah, I hear you -- might take some luck in terms of timing. This last event was seriously cosmically butt banged by bad timing, in that it was like 19F the day before a rainstorm that almost featured no transition. If there were some demonic god of weather at work, that entity could not have drubbed up a better metaphor for misery. Nice! I mean ...it was like 19F for 24 or more hours, then ...POOF! 33 and rain. It was a fun anomaly in general to follow, but for folks that could care less outside of a snowier event, that was pretty painful I'm sure. In fact, I'm ready for this pig to just wind down break toward a new paradigm. I could use a couple good days of up-down sunshine. Just ...something different. The interest in this thing wound down for me ... about 4am yesterday... Ha! You mean you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 That's probably true... but that sort of detail is a different discussion for me. I'd say there's still chances there for additional events to track, which is all I really vest. Cold? yeah, I hear you -- might take some luck in terms of timing. This last event was seriously cosmically butt banged by bad timing, in that it was like 19F the day before a rainstorm that almost feature not transition. I mean, good lord! It was 19F for 24 hours, then ...POOF, 33 and rain. It was a fun anomaly in general to follow, but for folks that could care less outside of a snowier event, that was pretty painful I'm sure. In fact, I'm ready for this pig to just wind down. Could use a couple good days of up-down sunshine. Just ...something different. The interest in this thing wound down for me ... about 4am yesterday... Ha! Oh yeah the storm train looks to continue. I agree on that, but I want the PNA/EPO region to start dumping the cauldron of cold into the CONUS. To me, the Pacific sucks lately. Sure it's not like December '94,'06,11 etc..but it still isn't good. I do feel good about that changing after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Oh yeah the storm train looks to continue. I agree on that, but I want the PNA/EPO region to start dumping the cauldron of cold into the CONUS. To me, the Pacific sucks lately. Sure it's not like December '94,'06,11 etc..but it still isn't good. I do feel good about that changing after Christmas. After Xmass ( and certainly to make sure Xmass has no snow of Kevin as a fist achieved agenda...), I can see a pattern alteration sufficient for the sort of likable change folks want. I put it long winded like that because it may not be ideal for all. I mean ... there's no way to tell if it will mean a -7C 900mb event-entrance temperature for the coast, but for the region of New as a whole, improvement again. It's just that western heights seem to be better behaved way out there in time in the "tempo" of the operational and ensemble means. Speaking of the more regional scope, again ... the statically +PNA could transitively rear and influence pretty much whenever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the 12/21 threat, but the airmass could be an issue. The ensembles are almost trying to retro the 12/18 storm back toward Nova Scotia which backs in some snow...psuedo inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro ensembles have a pretty strong signal for the 12/21 threat, but the airmass could be an issue. The ensembles are almost trying to retro the 12/18 storm back toward Nova Scotia which backs in some snow...psuedo inverted trough. I didn't get a chance to look at them, hows the longesve pattern look for Christmas and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I didn't get a chance to look at them, hows the longesve pattern look for Christmas and beyond? It's not much of a pattern. Really, more of a motif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sure, but how many day 10 booms have gone bust. I mean yeah, there have been signals there..but I guess I wouldn't bother sending out a tweet full of excitement on a day 10 op. lol. Look who is sending out that tweet. Would you expect anything less from him? Anything to get the WXRISK hype machine going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Weeklies? Look good. Big ridge NW Canada week 3. Week4 has ridging in AK with troughing off of CA. Also, a vortex NE of us in Labrador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Will, EURO ensembles looked better for the 18th event. Colder and a further northwest tracking low pressure off the coast. 18z GFS really blows up the low just too far offshore. The cold air pours into the low from the northwest once it hits offshore. The storm deepens rapidly on the 18z GFS and we get colder air mass to come into play. Also that northern stream H5 low deepens so fast and tracks underneath the SNE islands, which is why I thought the 12z run was a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Will, EURO ensembles looked better for the 18th event. Colder and a further northwest tracking low pressure off the coast. 18z GFS really blows up the low just too far offshore. The cold air pours into the low from the northwest once it hits offshore. The storm deepens rapidly on the 18z GFS and we get colder air mass to come into play. Also that northern stream H5 low deepens so fast and tracks underneath the SNE islands, which is why I thought the 12z run was a dud. It still doesn't look very good. An inverted trough is the best way to get something out of that unless the look changes between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The 18th is looking tough for the coast. Unless the 18z GFS op is right trying to get an inv trough look...but good luck with that. The airmass ahead of it is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm looking at a rain to snow scenario, and Ocean Enhanced snowfall possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm looking at the trends, and the model run by run are beginning to show the surface low that redevelops off the East Coast into a more favorable position to directly impact the region with its precipitation shield. Models are not done yet trying to figure out what will happen. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'm looking at a rain to snow scenario, and Ocean Enhanced snowfall possible. My friend I appreciate you're youthful enthusiasm and optimism but being in Harwich with this pattern the odds of you seeing anything outside of a few backlash flurries is very low and getting a good OES setup is like catching lighting in a bottle. I hope it works out but I'm not really excited about the stale air mass and the lack of good blocking ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 We don't need a -NAO for an explosive setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 We don't need a -NAO for an explosive setup. Nobody claimed we did. Though it does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I think a negative NAO is overrated when it comes to coastal storms. While it helps prolong a storm's duration it does not guarantee a snowstorm. Previous examples include the January 22-23rd 2005 Blizzard, epic Cape Cod slam fest that lasted 30 hours all a process of a H5 low capturing the surface low from escaping out to sea, only difference is the degree of cold air present between that storm and the lack of a true arctic airmass involved with this storm for the 18th. However I think it's plenty cold enough for a rain to accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Nobody claimed we did. Though it does help. There are values of -5 to -10C across the Great Lakes for this airmass cold source, I think this can overcome the SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 There are values of -5 to -10C across the Great Lakes for this airmass cold source, I think this can overcome the SSTs. Yeah on an inverted trough setup or an unlikely perfect sequence of phasing. Nobody is saying its impossible to snow on the coast for this threat, but just that it is extremely unlikely. The coast typically doesn't get good events like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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