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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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KBGM has it on the bottom of the weather briefing page under storm total forecast

http://www.weather.gov/bgm/briefingMain

There is is. Thanks! I saw a previous version of the map on syracuse.com but couldn't find it on the NWS website.

36 and just cloudy here. The waiting continues...this does remind me a bit of March '01 in terms of waiting, not from a storm standpoint.

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The 18z NAM has a bullseye of like 20" near SYR... I'll believe it when I see it. Other than that, it does look like the south shores off Ontario. Watching and waiting for a storm to move back west like this makes me uneasy but model consensus around Oswego/Onondaga counties looks to be in the 8-14" range. Even though its over a pretty long period, I'll take it. 

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The RAP is starting to come around and is backing off its complete whiff idea from earlier. The 18z runs are in general agreement of 6-12" across CNY over the next 48 hours(except for the areas closest to the PA border west of BGM), with more to come from the wraparound on Thursday evening into Friday. There is also an enhanced area of 1'+ totals which appear likely in the higher elevation areas just south of Syracuse and the Thruway.

 

Temperatures are coming down across the area and should continue to do so as the precip shield edges west. Steady snow should begin in Ithaca and Syracuse by 9:00 PM or so.

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We're holding steady at 32/31 here in Otsego County with steady light accumulating snow.

We went from ZR/sleet this AM to a snow/sleet mix and finally to all snow around 4 pm.

The flakes are finally looking better after being very icy and sleety but the snow on the ground is mashed potato consistency.  About an inch or two at most so far.

Hoping for more.

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I wish more was going on here. :(. come on big wx brains! I want to read your input. Plcmt of upper low might be a bit further NW than originally suspected- which could help with our areas near Buf and Niagara frontier. Interesting storm to be sure. Hope it doesnt disapoint us, like it has almost everyone else thus far (rain instead of snow for a lot of our eastern friends, ithaca and binghampton)

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I wish more was going on here. :(. come on big wx brains! I want to read your input. Plcmt of upper low might be a bit further NW than originally suspected- which could help with our areas near Buf and Niagara frontier. Interesting storm to be sure. Hope it doesnt disapoint us, like it has almost everyone else thus far (rain instead of snow for a lot of our eastern friends, ithaca and binghampton)

I have a feeling BUF will get more than the 4-6" NWS is calling for, 18z nam looks to be close to a foot around this parts.. Let's see what the 0z nam shows.

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Edge of the precip shield is like a mile from my house...this is like Chinese water torture waiting for it. We are at 34F, hoping a smidge of dynamic cooling turns us over to SN after it starts. Kids are hoping for a snow day tomorrow although Phoenix doesn't hand them out easily...

00Z NAM running. Popcorn time. Again.

Edit: as a side note...that big warmup next week is really getting crushed with each passing model run. Several Days of 50s is now looking like a day, or two, near 40...

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Let us know what the NAM has to say pretty please.....

#anxiousinithaca

 

In Ithaca as well.  I think our time to get in on the action is about here.  The composite reflectivity is lighting up over our heads.  Just a matter of time until it gets down to the surface.  The temperatures will be cold enough for the snow to start sticking on roads by midnight.

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Those of us in Ithaca are well-used to weather heartbreak, unfortunately. Anyway, the rain has started here(finally) and figures to change over shortly. I still think we'll get 6-8 inches over the next several days, with most coming in the next 24 hours.

 

Looks like the NAM is still hanging tough for CNY, especially with regards to the extended period of wraparound snows.

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