Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[CNY_WX]

A couple of bursts of moderate to heavy snow moved through here in last couple of hours. Only got about 1 to 2 inches but it came at the worst time during rush hour. We might be able to get a little more snow during the evening before the precipitation changes to rain.

[BuffaloWeather]

A couple of bursts of moderate to heavy snow moved through here in last couple of hours. Only got about 1 to 2 inches but it came at the worst time during rush hour. We might be able to get a little more snow during the evening before the precipitation changes to rain.

 

Congrats, surprise snow events are the best.

[Buffalo Bumble]

BUF wearing the grinch hat today.  Following some of the LR disucssions on the board here, there seems to be some optimism of a flip to cold around the 20th.  We'll see if BUF ends up being a bit too bullish on warm for most of Dec.  

 

.CLIMATE...
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...TAKING US DEEP
INTO DECEMBER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR OR WINTER WEATHER.
THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT WEEK
AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THESE COLD
PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS AT A
TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...BRINGING AT
LEAST SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER BASED
ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES...INSTEAD ALLOWING
PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD THE NATION AND KEEPING COLD LOCKED INTO THE FAR
NORTH OF CANADA.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ALSO LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN
THIS WARMING TREND. THE LATEST WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT SHOWS MJO
CONVECTION ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 5 WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION NOW
CROSSING THE MARITIME CONTINENT. A LOOK AT THE COMPOSITE ANOMALY
CHARTS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE NATION IN THIS PHASE OF THE MJO. THIS MJO EPISODE IS FORECAST
BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO ORBIT THROUGH PHASE 6 AND 7
BEFORE FALLING APART BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...NEVER REACHING A
POSITION ON THE GLOBE TO FORCE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THEN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
UNLIKE THE TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NOVEMBER...THE TRACK OF THIS STORM
WILL NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND DOWNSTREAM TO NORTH AMERICA...SINCE IT IS NOT FORECAST TO
RECURVE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE EAST ASIAN JET.

THE FORCING THAT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN IS NOT APPARENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS...SO IT APPEARS WINTER WILL BE ON HOLD FOR AT
LEAST MOST OF DECEMBER.

[BuffaloWeather]

BUF wearing the grinch hat today.  Following some of the LR disucssions on the board here, there seems to be some optimism of a flip to cold around the 20th.  We'll see if BUF ends up being a bit too bullish on warm for most of Dec.  

 

.CLIMATE...

THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE

NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...TAKING US DEEP

INTO DECEMBER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR OR WINTER WEATHER.

THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT WEEK

AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THESE COLD

PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS AT A

TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE

MONTH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG

RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...BRINGING AT

LEAST SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC

OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER BASED

ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH

ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING IN

OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES...INSTEAD ALLOWING

PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD THE NATION AND KEEPING COLD LOCKED INTO THE FAR

NORTH OF CANADA.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ALSO LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN

THIS WARMING TREND. THE LATEST WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT SHOWS MJO

CONVECTION ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 5 WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION NOW

CROSSING THE MARITIME CONTINENT. A LOOK AT THE COMPOSITE ANOMALY

CHARTS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST HALF

OF THE NATION IN THIS PHASE OF THE MJO. THIS MJO EPISODE IS FORECAST

BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO ORBIT THROUGH PHASE 6 AND 7

BEFORE FALLING APART BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...NEVER REACHING A

POSITION ON THE GLOBE TO FORCE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST ACROSS THE

PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THEN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

UNLIKE THE TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NOVEMBER...THE TRACK OF THIS STORM

WILL NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC

AND DOWNSTREAM TO NORTH AMERICA...SINCE IT IS NOT FORECAST TO

RECURVE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE EAST ASIAN JET.

THE FORCING THAT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN IS NOT APPARENT THROUGH THE

NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS...SO IT APPEARS WINTER WILL BE ON HOLD FOR AT

LEAST MOST OF DECEMBER.

 

I think the pattern starts to break around the 3rd and 4th week of December. Also got a confirmation that Perrysburg received 322" of snow last year. That has to be a record of some sort in WNY. I'm sure someone might have received 350"+ in 77 though, not sure. I know the record for the Tug is 466" I believe in Hooker in 76-77.

[MillvilleWx]

BUF wearing the grinch hat today. Following some of the LR disucssions on the board here, there seems to be some optimism of a flip to cold around the 20th. We'll see if BUF ends up being a bit too bullish on warm for most of Dec.

.CLIMATE...

THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE

NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...TAKING US DEEP

INTO DECEMBER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR OR WINTER WEATHER.

THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT WEEK

AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THESE COLD

PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS AT A

TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE

MONTH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG

RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...BRINGING AT

LEAST SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC

OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER BASED

ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH

ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING IN

OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES...INSTEAD ALLOWING

PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD THE NATION AND KEEPING COLD LOCKED INTO THE FAR

NORTH OF CANADA.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ALSO LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN

THIS WARMING TREND. THE LATEST WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT SHOWS MJO

CONVECTION ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 5 WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION NOW

CROSSING THE MARITIME CONTINENT. A LOOK AT THE COMPOSITE ANOMALY

CHARTS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST HALF

OF THE NATION IN THIS PHASE OF THE MJO. THIS MJO EPISODE IS FORECAST

BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO ORBIT THROUGH PHASE 6 AND 7

BEFORE FALLING APART BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...NEVER REACHING A

POSITION ON THE GLOBE TO FORCE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

SUPER TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST ACROSS THE

PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THEN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

UNLIKE THE TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NOVEMBER...THE TRACK OF THIS STORM

WILL NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC

AND DOWNSTREAM TO NORTH AMERICA...SINCE IT IS NOT FORECAST TO

RECURVE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE EAST ASIAN JET.

THE FORCING THAT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN IS NOT APPARENT THROUGH THE

NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS...SO IT APPEARS WINTER WILL BE ON HOLD FOR AT

LEAST MOST OF DECEMBER.

They might want to take another look at things. It looks much more interesting last few runs of both the GFS and Euro Ensembles. I still think the east as a whole has an unfavorable look for the next 10 days in terms of cold, but something tells me the end of the month could be a different story. The look of a flat, deamplified pattern as far as the eye can see doesn't look to be the case anymore based upon latest guidance. They might be singing a different tune next week. Hell, even the OP GFS wasn't horrible for once

[LakeEffectKing]

They might want to take another look at things. It looks much more interesting last few runs of both the GFS and Euro Ensembles. I still think the east as a whole has an unfavorable look for the next 10 days in terms of cold, but something tells me the end of the month could be a different story. The look of a flat, deamplified pattern as far as the eye can see doesn't look to be the case anymore based upon latest guidance. They might be singing a different tune next week. Hell, even the OP GFS wasn't horrible for once

Kinda agree....too much emphasis on super typhoons altering northern flow...I see a green Christmas...but think week after could really get interesting...wrt to cold dump....

[MillvilleWx]

Kinda agree....too much emphasis on super typhoons altering northern flow...I see a green Christmas...but think week after could really get interesting...wrt to cold dump....

I agree. I don't think a real pattern flip will kick in till around Christmas, so that would put that following week into the fun and games of winter again. After that crazy week up around the lakes a few weeks ago, it looks to have been very boring for y'all up there. Those lakes seem prime for another event. Especially Ontario

[BuffaloWeather]

I agree. I don't think a real pattern flip will kick in till around Christmas, so that would put that following week into the fun and games of winter again. After that crazy week up around the lakes a few weeks ago, it looks to have been very boring for y'all up there. Those lakes seem prime for another event. Especially Ontario

 

Both lakes open for business. I never mind ups and downs with temperatures as it keeps Lake Erie going for longer. Would be nice to get some synoptic stuff going soon to. Be nice for all of us to get a decent hit.

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

Both lakes open for business. I never mind ups and downs with temperatures as it keeps Lake Erie going for longer. Would be nice to get some synoptic stuff going soon to. Be nice for all of us to get a decent hit.

 

 

Wow, Erie is definitely still open for business. I think there's another pretty good lake effect event to be had for the snow belt region. Last winter during the OWLeS project, they started around December 9th to the 21st. Had a break for the holidays, then went January 2nd to the 29th. They had 27 events alone off Ontario during those time frames combined. If there is another period of constant cold fronts and a nice +PNA out west funneling down disturbances into the Lakes, you guys could be seeing a fair share of events into mid-late January.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Both lakes open for business. I never mind ups and downs with temperatures as it keeps Lake Erie going for longer. Would be nice to get some synoptic stuff going soon to. Be nice for all of us to get a decent hit.

 

 

 

 

Might not have to wait to long, at least for our friends to the east.  Interesting battle between GFS and Euro for next Tue-Thur. Extreme solution of the Euro looks like a potential big time hit for CNY/ENY with synoptic and lake enhanced snow.  This from Binghamton NWS:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.

MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. TROF REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT THE 0Z

ECMWF RUN BROUGHT THE TUE-WED CYCLONE INLAND THROUGH CT. THIS IS

IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS. THE

PERCENTAGES ARE INCREASING FOR SOME TYPE OF SNOW EVENT, THOUGH IT

REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE ECMWF WILL HOLD UP.

IF SO...IT HAS THE MAKINGS OF A MAJOR SNOW STORM, BOTH IN TERMS

OF INTENSITY AND DURATION. THE ECMWF WOBBLES THE LOW OVER NEW

ENGLAND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, STACKING IT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER

LOW. IT`S NOT UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY THAT THE STORM MOVES INTO

CANADA, AND EVEN THEN OUR FA WILL BE IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW (LAKE

EFFECT POTENTIAL).

[LakeEffectKing]

12/6 00Z NAM would suggest someone is going to get a a lot of wet snow...in C/E PA, C/E NY....GFS to roll in soon....I bet it caves to the Euro...

[Leelee]

Any chance this tracks west enough to give Buffalo area significant snow? I'd just like to track a storm again, kinda boring lately.

[LakeEffectKing]

Any chance this tracks west enough to give Buffalo area significant snow? I'd just like to track a storm again, kinda boring lately.

Sure....if the energy digs a bit further west, and the retrograding SLP is able to move inland into the NE part of PA....

GFS moved toward the Euro solutions of late....If Euro stays the course, Upstate PA/NY should be on alert Mon. night/Tue/Tue night....and LES for Wed.-Thurs.

[BuffaloWeather]

Sure....if the energy digs a bit further west, and the retrograding SLP is able to move inland into the NE part of PA....

GFS moved toward the Euro solutions of late....If Euro stays the course, Upstate PA/NY should be on alert Mon. night/Tue/Tue night....and LES for Wed.-Thurs.

 

Just hoping to get a nice snowfall before xmas for most of the great lakes would be nice. Seems like a decent amount of possibilities the week before Xmas.

[AppsRunner]

Hopefully that synoptic storm can work out here. Accupro snow maps showed 1-2 feet across portions of upstate NY.

[MillvilleWx]

I think anyone from the Mid Hudson Valley up into the Catskills and Adirondacks needs to really pay attention to the upcoming forecast for early this week. This could be a long duration event for those areas with potential major accumulations over 12" to as much as 3' in some spots in higher elevations over to VT. This could end up being a doozy for some. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I think anyone from the Mid Hudson Valley up into the Catskills and Adirondacks needs to really pay attention to the upcoming forecast for early this week. This could be a long duration event for those areas with potential major accumulations over 12" to as much as 3' in some spots in higher elevations over to VT. This could end up being a doozy for some. 

 

Enjoy your updates Mill. Lake Erie is at average for the date at 42 degrees as of Dec. 6th. Hopefully we can get a decent warm-up the next week or so but it kind of looks muted compared to a few days ago.

[MillvilleWx]

Enjoy your updates Mill. Lake Erie is at average for the date at 42 degrees as of Dec. 6th. Hopefully we can get a decent warm-up the next week or so but it kind of looks muted compared to a few days ago.

 

No problem Buffalo. I'm actually kind of shocked at the lack of involvement in here for such a big event possible for this coverage region. The Catskills, Berkshires, green and whites look like a good bet to see a long duration event aided by a closed off circulation meandering up the coast that allows for a good up slope look in the high terrain. The areas near the lakes, primarily Lake Ontario could see some snow from the synoptic portion and from the energy rolling across the lakes promoting streamers for the southern portions around Oswego and lower Jefferson counties extending out toward Ithica and Utica. Any of those spots could see a nice storm out of this. The main focus will be in New England where the mountains up there will be buried, I believe regardless, if the storm continues on a similar evolution. Will be fun to watch unfold. I can't wait for the cold to kick back in so that way the real fun and games can begin 

 

Edit: 0z GFS and 0z NAM (Grant it in its long range) show a good thump of snow in the Lower Hudson Valley west to the Mid Hudson. I'm thinking some of those areas with elevation above 1600' could get the business from this one. Elevation will be key

[Stash]

There are not too many in Eastern Upstate NY on the board these days.  I'm watching it, but I honestly don't know what to make of it.  This could be another Feb 2010 where I'm waffling between rain and snow here in Saratoga while a few miles west of me is getting slammed with heavy wet snow.

No problem Buffalo. I'm actually kind of shocked at the lack of involvement in here for such a big event possible for this coverage region. The Catskills, Berkshires, green and whites look like a good bet to see a long duration event aided by a closed off circulation meandering up the coast that allows for a good up slope look in the high terrain. The areas near the lakes, primarily Lake Ontario could see some snow from the synoptic portion and from the energy rolling across the lakes promoting streamers for the southern portions around Oswego and lower Jefferson counties extending out toward Ithica and Utica. Any of those spots could see a nice storm out of this. The main focus will be in New England where the mountains up there will be buried, I believe regardless, if the storm continues on a similar evolution. Will be fun to watch unfold. I can't wait for the cold to kick back in so that way the real fun and games can begin 

 

Edit: 0z GFS and 0z NAM (Grant it in its long range) show a good thump of snow in the Lower Hudson Valley west to the Mid Hudson. I'm thinking some of those areas with elevation above 1600' could get the business from this one. Elevation will be key

[BuffaloWeather]

No problem Buffalo. I'm actually kind of shocked at the lack of involvement in here for such a big event possible for this coverage region. The Catskills, Berkshires, green and whites look like a good bet to see a long duration event aided by a closed off circulation meandering up the coast that allows for a good up slope look in the high terrain. The areas near the lakes, primarily Lake Ontario could see some snow from the synoptic portion and from the energy rolling across the lakes promoting streamers for the southern portions around Oswego and lower Jefferson counties extending out toward Ithica and Utica. Any of those spots could see a nice storm out of this. The main focus will be in New England where the mountains up there will be buried, I believe regardless, if the storm continues on a similar evolution. Will be fun to watch unfold. I can't wait for the cold to kick back in so that way the real fun and games can begin 

 

Edit: 0z GFS and 0z NAM (Grant it in its long range) show a good thump of snow in the Lower Hudson Valley west to the Mid Hudson. I'm thinking some of those areas with elevation above 1600' could get the business from this one. Elevation will be key

 

Yeah, upstate new york forum in general is pretty dead. It really needs to be combined with another sub-forum since there are only a handful of active posters. Which is kind of strange since IMO we have some of the most exciting winter weather in the world for a decent populated area. (Rochester, Syracuse, Buffalo, Watertown) But yeah, retrograding lows can bring decent snows along the southern shore of Lake Ontario with the aid of lake enhancement and decent orographic lift. For the event next week, aside from the higher elevations, I could see places like Rochester getting some decent snows if temperatures get cold enough.

[LakeEffectKing]

I'm really starting to think that the higher elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Green Mountains are going to get absolutely slammed! Lower elevations of central and eastern New York will have issues initially with boundary temperatures. If the models are under playing cold air, even if by 1 or 2 degrees celsius at 850, then even the lower elevations of upstate New York would be looking at a snowfall of 1 to 2 feet, IMO

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm really starting to think that the higher elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Green Mountains are going to get absolutely slammed! Lower elevations of central and eastern New York will have issues initially with boundary temperatures. If the models are under playing cold air, even if by 1 or 2 degrees celsius at 850, then even the lower elevations of upstate New York would be looking at a snowfall of 1 to 2 feet, IMO

 

BUF NWS Agrees. Pretty awesome Forecast discussion

 

THERE WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID-WEEK WITH A POTENTIALLY

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK POSSIBLE. A

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTERACT WITH A

COASTAL LOW AND DEVELOP INTO A NOREASTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO BUT THE DETAILS

ARE KEY TO OUR FORECAST. SINCE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE

PATTERN...A MODEL CONSENSUS IS OUR BEST BET TO PIN DOWN THE ACTUAL

TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...A BLEND OF THE PAST TWO RUNS

OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/SREF WAS USED...AND THEN MODIFIED TO

ACCOUNT FOR UPSLOPING AND OTHER LOCALIZED EFFECTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS OFF THE JERSEY

SHORE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GGEM...THE VAST MAJORITY OF

GUIDANCE KEEPS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE COASTAL

LOW TO OUR EAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THE

SHORTWAVE...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL MATURE AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE

500 MB LOW...AND ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO OUR REGION. DIFFERENCES IN

GUIDANCE STEMS FROM THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB LOW...AND ALTHOUGH

GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES LEAD TO MAJOR

DIFFERENCES IN QPF. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY

OUTLIER (WELL EAST OF THE SREF MEAN) WHILE THE GGEM IS A WET OUTLIER

(WEST OF OTHER GUIDANCE). BLENDING ALL GUIDANCE PUTS US FAIRLY CLOSE

TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 03Z SREF.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH

THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. INTENSITY AND

LOCATION WILL VARY AS WAVES PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. IN GENERAL

THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE

THE NORTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND EAST OF LAKE

ONTARIO WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE MAJORITY OF

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE

MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPERATURES VARY AS

WARMER AIR TEMPORARILY WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL

CONSENSUS IS -4C TO -6C. THIS IS LARGELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN A

SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPSLOPING WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESOSCALE EFFECT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE

AMOUNTS A BIT IN TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKES.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...GIVEN SO

MANY VARIABLES. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED EVENT...SO STORM TOTALS

COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...EVEN IF SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT AS HEAVY AS A

LAKE EFFECT EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE

DISCUSSED IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm really starting to think that the higher elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks, Green Mountains are going to get absolutely slammed! Lower elevations of central and eastern New York will have issues initially with boundary temperatures. If the models are under playing cold air, even if by 1 or 2 degrees celsius at 850, then even the lower elevations of upstate New York would be looking at a snowfall of 1 to 2 feet, IMO

 

I'm always eerie of retrograding lows as they can be feast or famine. I think along the shore of lake Ontario in elevated regions from Rochester to your location look like good bets for a foot+ as well as who you already mentioned.

[Zynlamar]

Can anyone give me some insight on the Catskills region in ny, say around tannersville about 2200 feet elevation.

[phoenixny]

GFS has heavy precip. over CNY late Tuesday night and Wednesday with 850 temps around -2 to -3 early and then lowering. That path is usually a great one for CNY. I wonder if we see 1 to 2 inch per hour rates in that deformation band that sets up somewhere in NY. NAM seems dry. Fun times ahead.  

[phoenixny]

If EURO holds I wonder if BGM issues Winter Storm Watches or hold off until tomorrow morning. They could wait.

[AppsRunner]

I don't know how to deal with this storm. Our forecast group that forecasts for the DOT is meeting later today to discuss this storm should be fun

[BuffaloWeather]

I don't know how to deal with this storm. Our forecast group that forecasts for the DOT is meeting later today to discuss this storm should be fun

 

Awesome, keep us updated. Should be a fun storm to track, whereever it ends up snowing. Retrograding lows are fun and complicated.

[BuffaloWeather]

Big hit for most of upstate

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Euro looks good as well. Congrats central/eastern NY. Anyone with elevation should get a long lasting decent thump out of this one. Several pulses of low pressure swing from east to west over the course of several days. Such a weird looking evolution, blocking pattern ftw I guess?