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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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crownweather, on 11 Nov 2014 - 11:55 AM, said:

I wanted to introduce myself to this part of the board as my wife and I are strongly considering and most likely will be moving to the Buffalo area by or before next fall.

I'm Rob Lightbown and I currently reside in Presque Isle, Maine, which is in the very northern part of Maine.  I have been forecasting the weather up here since 1991 and needless to say I am very used to forecasting synoptic scale winter storms; therefore, I am very much looking forward to the challenge of forecasting meso and even microscale lake effect/lake enhanced weather events.    

We made the decision to move to the Buffalo area while visiting there just last month.  We both fell in love with the area and like the opportunities that are available to both of us.  My wife wants to go back to school for her masters and eventually her PhD and I would like to expand my weather forecasting company, Crown Weather Services, a little more; something that I have hit a dead end with in my local area.  

Anyways, I'll be looking at the various posts on this part of the forum throughout the winter and if you don't mind, may ask questions regarding the lake effect machine that gets cranked up at times during the winter.  

Welcome aboard! Feel free to ask us any questions. :snowman:

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I wanted to introduce myself to this part of the board as my wife and I are strongly considering and most likely will be moving to the Buffalo area by or before next fall.

I'm Rob Lightbown and I currently reside in Presque Isle, Maine, which is in the very northern part of Maine.  I have been forecasting the weather up here since 1991 and needless to say I am very used to forecasting synoptic scale winter storms; therefore, I am very much looking forward to the challenge of forecasting meso and even microscale lake effect/lake enhanced weather events.    

We made the decision to move to the Buffalo area while visiting there just last month.  We both fell in love with the area and like the opportunities that are available to both of us.  My wife wants to go back to school for her masters and eventually her PhD and I would like to expand my weather forecasting company, Crown Weather Services, a little more; something that I have hit a dead end with in my local area.  

Anyways, I'll be looking at the various posts on this part of the forum throughout the winter and if you don't mind, may ask questions regarding the lake effect machine that gets cranked up at times during the winter.  

 

I will be the first to welcome you to Buffalo if you do decide to move here. The bad rep Buffalo receives is vastly overstated. I have traveled to nearly every state in the United States and many times outside of the country and still value Buffalo for its uniqueness and general "home" feel. The weather is just an added bonus! What part of the Buffalo area were you looking to move to? Will your wife be going to UB? The area is truly being revitalized lately. Pegula is truly helping the "revolution" in and around the city. Here is a few articles from Tom Niziol (Former Head MET at BUF NWS) Who now runs the winter weather department at the The Weather Channel. These will help you get up to date quickly with the complexity of mesoscale events such as Lake Effect Snow.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281987%29002%3C0310%3AOFOLES%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/respap2.htm

 

http://www.weather.com/video/what-is-lake-effect-snow-54848

 

We live and die by the lake effect here in the Winter.

 

Welcome aboard and looking forward to your posts!

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Wow, thanks so much for the articles.  Strangely, the 1987 paper was sent to me by Niziol when I was 13 or 14 years old.  At the time, I was mailing letters to many of the local National Weather Service offices asking questions about their local weather (I've been a weather geek since age 6) and the Buffalo NWS was one of the offices I wrote.  Niziol himeslf wrote me back and sent along this exact paper.  Weird.  

We were actually looking at an area from Tonawanda to Cheektowaga to Amherst, Lackawanna and West Seneca and this does include the city of Buffalo as well.  The big thing is that we want to obviously find the right house for both of us (I want a fairly large office since I work from home and my wife wants a walk-in closet...lol).  

Meg, my wife, was looking at the graduate programs at U Buffalo and really liked the student support services masters program they offer (that is her actual job up here at U Maine).  

The revitalization and opportunities that you mentioned is what really drew us to want to move there after visiting for over 10 days.  In addition, there are many other reasons, including relatively short travel times to many different states/cities (short nowadays is a 4-6 hour ride!!, that's how long it takes us to get to "civilization" right now), culture, art, lake beaches, etc, etc,etc.

One question with BUFKIT - I have been using BUFKIT for many, many years for my own local weather forecasting, but have very recently been starting to look at the Buffalo forecast model soundings with the Lake Effect tab.  Under that tab, I noticed terms such as Marginal, Conditional and Extreme and assume that has to do with the instability of the atmosphere.  I realize that index alone does not mean you will have lake effect as other factors such as shear and fetch has to be figured in, correct.  What else should I be looking at when I'm studying Bufkit?  

Anyways, thank you so much for the warm welcome and this move is something that we are very aggressively pursuing.         

 

 

 

I will be the first to welcome you to Buffalo if you do decide to move here. The bad rep Buffalo receives is vastly overstated. I have traveled to nearly every state in the United States and many times outside of the country and still value Buffalo for its uniqueness and general "home" feel. The weather is just an added bonus! What part of the Buffalo area were you looking to move to? Will your wife be going to UB? The area is truly being revitalized lately. Pegula is truly helping the "revolution" in and around the city. Here is a few articles from Tom Niziol (Former Head MET at BUF NWS) Who now runs the winter weather department at the The Weather Channel. These will help you get up to date quickly with the complexity of mesoscale events such as Lake Effect Snow.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281987%29002%3C0310%3AOFOLES%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/respap2.htm

 

http://www.weather.com/video/what-is-lake-effect-snow-54848

 

We live and die by the lake effect here in the Winter.

 

Welcome aboard and looking forward to your posts!

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Wow, thanks so much for the articles.  Strangely, the 1987 paper was sent to me by Niziol when I was 13 or 14 years old.  At the time, I was mailing letters to many of the local National Weather Service offices asking questions about their local weather (I've been a weather geek since age 6) and the Buffalo NWS was one of the offices I wrote.  Niziol himeslf wrote me back and sent along this exact paper.  Weird.  

We were actually looking at an area from Tonawanda to Cheektowaga to Amherst, Lackawanna and West Seneca and this does include the city of Buffalo as well.  The big thing is that we want to obviously find the right house for both of us (I want a fairly large office since I work from home and my wife wants a walk-in closet...lol).  

Meg, my wife, was looking at the graduate programs at U Buffalo and really liked the student support services masters program they offer (that is her actual job up here at U Maine).  

The revitalization and opportunities that you mentioned is what really drew us to want to move there after visiting for over 10 days.  In addition, there are many other reasons, including relatively short travel times to many different states/cities (short nowadays is a 4-6 hour ride!!, that's how long it takes us to get to "civilization" right now), culture, art, lake beaches, etc, etc,etc.

One question with BUFKIT - I have been using BUFKIT for many, many years for my own local weather forecasting, but have very recently been starting to look at the Buffalo forecast model soundings with the Lake Effect tab.  Under that tab, I noticed terms such as Marginal, Conditional and Extreme and assume that has to do with the instability of the atmosphere.  I realize that index alone does not mean you will have lake effect as other factors such as shear and fetch has to be figured in, correct.  What else should I be looking at when I'm studying Bufkit?  

Anyways, thank you so much for the warm welcome and this move is something that we are very aggressively pursuing.         

 

I hear you. Buffalo is extremely convenient with travel times. You can get anywhere you want in less than 30 minutes at virtually any time of the day. I can be in the hills skiing in 40 mins, to Niagara Falls in 30 minutes, to Toronto in 90 minutes, Erie in 90 minutes, Buffalo in 10 minutes, to the Beach in 5 minutes. Can't beat it!

 

I am not as familiar with BUFKIT as some others on here. Maybe OSU, LEK, or Delta can help you in on that one.

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Rob, I've been in Buffalo a bit more than two years. It's a great place with great people, and obviously has interesting weather. Just in the time that I've lived here, I see growing energy and dedication to the community. Your plan sounds like a good one to me.

 

 

Welcome, Rob. I don't think WNY is the place to go to avoid dead ends, but good luck. 

 

As much as I like Buffalo, sentiments like the above are the only thing I really dislike about living here. There's a small number of people living in the Buffalo area -- usually outside the city itself -- who seem to feel compelled to complain about what a terrible place it is. The "WNY negativity" is incredibly tiresome (both to me as an outsider who likes it here, and to my wife, who is a native of the area and moved back because she loves it). My advice: ignore these people, as they will just try to bring you down.

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As much as I like Buffalo, sentiments like the above are the only thing I really dislike about living here. There's a small number of people living in the Buffalo area -- usually outside the city itself -- who seem to feel compelled to complain about what a terrible place it is. The "WNY negativity" is incredibly tiresome (both to me as an outsider who likes it here, and to my wife, who is a native of the area and moved back because she loves it). My advice: ignore these people, as they will just try to bring you down.

I'm not trying to bring anyone down. There's positives to Buffalo, partly why I returned here from Arizona, especially for weather enthusiasts like this guy.

And I grew up in the city... well, I'll just stop now, this won't go well lol.

 

Snow on Monday!

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I'll be coming home to Buffalo for Thanksgiving from the 26th to the 30th. Hopefully I'll get to see some snow. Hoping Justin (kulaginman) comes home for Thanksgiving as well, as he has quite the tract record for snow when he returns to Buffalo.

Yeah, would be nice to get a decent LES event around that time. My family from Florida will be up as well and want to see some snow. Kuli is good luck, he always brings the Thanksgiving snow. ^_^

 

FWIW the 6z nam bufkit data has the winds start out at 248..

 

Maybe we can squeeze out 1-2 inches here tomorrow if the winds back enough.

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Ensembles suggest another trough around Thanksgiving, so it's possible :)

 

I'm not feeling as hopeful about Monday, though. Drier air wedging in most of Monday, temps above freezing, and this just isn't the classic setup that usually drills the Metro. I'd like some hype from a met. Looks like mostly a southern tier event from Tuesday-Thursday

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Again, a big thank you to BuffaloWeather for the links.  They have been a big help.  I have found some additional educational material on Lake Effect Snow Forecasting that I thought I would share with all of you.  

The UCAR Comet Program has a Lake Effect/Ocean Effect Snow Forecasting educational module that can be found at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snow/lake_effect/ .  

Also, BUFKIT's 5 minute University has a Lake Effect Snow module that can be found at http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/IC5/lesson7/player.html .  

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Again, a big thank you to BuffaloWeather for the links.  They have been a big help.  I have found some additional educational material on Lake Effect Snow Forecasting that I thought I would share with all of you.  

The UCAR Comet Program has a Lake Effect/Ocean Effect Snow Forecasting educational module that can be found at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snow/lake_effect/ .  

Also, BUFKIT's 5 minute University has a Lake Effect Snow module that can be found at http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/IC5/lesson7/player.html .  

 

This is awesome. Thanks!

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THE LAKE SNOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS ON THE LAKES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MINOR WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES EARLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE NOW REORIENTED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND...EFFECTIVELY FORMING A PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS PLUME WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE DAY AND COULD HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AFFECTING METRO
BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS AND THE WATERTOWN AREA.

 

Still looks good on Mon-Thurs as well.

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About 0.5-1" in Blasdell mainly on grassy areas.. btw check out the latest AFD from BUF

 

SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS...AFFECTING METRO
BUFFALO...NIAGARA FALLS...AND WATERTOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
TIMEFRAME...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
HOWEVER...A FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
AND BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTION IS THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE
WHERE THE LAKE SNOWS SET UP. GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN A 210 AND 250
FLOW WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FALL.
IN ALL...THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWS TO SOMEWHERE. AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES.

 

 

PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL COME AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES AND
USHERS IN THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. BASED ON LOCAL
RESEARCH...THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND TUG HILL REGIONS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
BUFFALO/ROCHESTER METRO AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE SPARED THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THERE STILL IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
WIND DIRECTION AND THUS THE LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIFT WHAT
REMAINS NORTH EAST OF THE LAKES. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL LOWER AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WHICH WILL WEAKEN LAKE EFFECT BANDS ON
THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

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The combination of the synoptic hybrid storm and following LES looks really good. Even develops a upstream connection for a few frames it appeared. 

 

Either way BUF bumped totals up a little here... now on the border of 2-4/4-6" in Oswego. I know its not much for you guys but I enjoy every "minor" storm

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