Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Thought we'd give this a try... This thread will be for minor events that are not really thread worthy or surprise minor events that pop up out of no where. Both of which happen every winter numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I think this weekend's little system drops around an inch for a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Good work. 18z GFS with a nice spread the wealth event this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 We just need a little more phasing to make this weekend wave more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This is a good idea....in the past these type of events generally went into the monthly discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 GRR noting Saturday's system in their AFD "THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE DEEPENS UP CONSIDERABLY AND THERE IS BETTER LIFT JUST UNDER THE DGZ. SO WE MAY END UP WITH A HEADLINE EVENT. I BUMPED UP POPS AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS SEEING ACCUMULATIONS." Exciting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyfisher7 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah that got me excited as well. Dtx says,"HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. SKIES WILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY." I just hope I have to get the shovel out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Just enough to make fieldwork interesting over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Plumes season... 0" to 4" range at ORD ... mean is at 1" for the Saturday-Sunday "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Plumes season... 0" to 4" range at ORD ... mean is at 1" for the Saturday-Sunday "event" And it looks like that's just assuming 10:1, too. (VPZ has 0.8" snow off 0.08" liquid for the mean there.) Should hopefully be a nice widespread 1-2" early-season whitening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 SREF plume for UGN is from 0-3.5", but that's only through 6z Sunday. 1" mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 And it looks like that's just assuming 10:1, too. (VPZ has 0.8" snow off 0.08" liquid for the mean there.) Should hopefully be a nice widespread 1-2" early-season whitening. true...and as Geos just ninja'd my thoughts....likely still snowing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 My early thought on this for LAF is 1-2". Ratios may not be quite as good down here but we'll see. Will have to watch the track of the Monday wave as a farther north adjustment would perhaps put us in line for higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 My early thought on this for LAF is 1-2". Ratios may not be quite as good down here but we'll see. Will have to watch the track of the Monday wave as a farther north adjustment would perhaps put us in line for higher amounts. Liking where i'm sitting with the monday wave for seeing at least a couple of inches if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GGEM moisture map through 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 GGEM moisture map through 120 hours. That'd work for 1-2", my first call will be 1.6" for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 DAB for ORD is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 DAB for ORD is the way to go. Some things never change. I forgot, what's your upper limit for dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 Some things never change. I forgot, what's your upper limit for dusting? 0.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Thinking 1-2" of fresh powder for this area the way it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Liking where i'm sitting with the monday wave for seeing at least a couple of inches if not more. first wave from west dampens out = snow showers second wave from south looks to favor southeastern areas = snow showers here. Euro is the only bullish model with the second wave bringing a slug of moisture right up I-71, but it stands alone. Not excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Fresh dusting. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Fresh dusting. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 via LOT... IT DOESHELP TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHESTHAT FALL OUT WHEN 1. APPLYING RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 17:1 SUPPORTED BYFORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND 2. MIXING RATIOS OF 1.5 G/KG WITHINA SIX HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCHMELTING DESPITE PROBABLE LIGHT RATES THANKS TO FIVE COLD DAYS INADVANCE OF THIS. SOIL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FELL QUICKLY ASINDICATED BY THE 4 INCH TEMP AT THE WFO NOW 38 DEGREES HAVING GONEDOWN 12 DEGREES IN TWO DAYS. diggin' the 4 inch soil temps shout out.... 9Z Plumes at JOT...mean up over 2 inches ... majority of members showing an 18 hour accum 21Z sat to 15Z sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 If anyone was interesting in seeing the op EURO from last night. The most juiced up of the models. 12z Parallel GFS came through with more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 DVN SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DGZ DEPTH WILL BE IN THE 100-150 MB RANGE DURING THE CORE OF THE EVENT AND WILL BE DEEPEST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. THE DGZ DEPTH WILL INCREASE TO >200 MB AFTER 06Z/SUNDAY BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO NAM COBB SNOW RATIOS AVERAGING NEAR NEAR 16:1 ARE REASONABLE. IF MODELS STAY ON TRACK AVG SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 12z PGFS which includes the second wave on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pretty much thinking 1" is tops here with the weekend snows. Granted ratios are decent for this time of year, but QPF is pretty meager on all of the models for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pretty much thinking 1" is tops here with the weekend snows. Granted ratios are decent for this time of year, but QPF is pretty meager on all of the models for LAF. Interestingly the GFS ensemble members have been slightly more bullish on precip...and not just a few, almost the entire suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 DPA fcst sounding from bufkit at 6z Sunday off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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