GaStorm Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Hey Larry, great research! I'm usually all about cooler weather in fall but this month I will root for the opposite. Bring on that 1884-85 style winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Minnesota snow one month early... (clown map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 What's up man? How's it been? You and Falls been reading fr the same book. Hopefully, we can avoid any October noreasters this year! Hey CR! Been good, checked in here and there through the summer but wow....nothing going on weather wise this year (unusual weather anyway). Starting to get the itch of winter. I gotta say too though, I have to agree with Brick that fall might be the best time of year. Nice cool weather, fall leaves, great TV and sports come on, and you start smelling the fire places burning with your window rolled down a bit driving around. Greatest smell ever...and yeah, no more snowstorms this month. Let's switch to from cool to cold in November and start the snow season in December where it belongs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Minnesota snow one month early... (clown map) minn_snow.png Oh man... Early October snow is southern Minnesota is a good sign for the upcoming winter; but snow in northern Minnesota is not..... Just kidding..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Larry (or anybody), where would I find similar numbers for Raleigh? For example, when you look at the DJF average and then the departure from average on a given year, how do you determine that? Are those numbers readily available or do you have to calculate them based on raw data? Same ? with SN/IP totals. Essentially, if one were to want to do a similar analysis for RDU, what is the easiest way to access the data that would support that effort? If it's too complicated to explain, feel free to say that. CR, Sorry about the delay in replying: For Raleigh: 1) DJF temp. average readily available from NWS. I used longterm averages rather than just the 30 year fwiw. I'd use whatever average is readily available. 2) SN/IP: should also be readily avaialble. Although I analyzed only DJF temperatures, I analyzed Nov.-Mar S/IP. ZR amounts are not easy to find. I had to do many days of research at the ATL library looking at old newspapers on microfilm to get the bulk of historic ATL major ZR data. No easy way out here imo though there is a website with major SE ZR's since the 1950's somewhere fwiw. 3) Once you have these, you'll obviously need to access each winter's data. I suggest just using the winters I listed to make it easier if you'd like. For each of these winters for temp.'s and SN/IP, look in here for RDU: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=0&state=NC&_target1=Next+%3E Unfortunately, it looks like pre-1939 is only spotty in this link's data for Raleigh. I don't know why. It looks like Dec. of 1918 and Dec. of 1911 are there. (ATL goes back to 1879-80.) So, to get JF of 1919, JF of 1912, 1904-5, 1900-01, 1899-00, 1885-6, and 1884-5, you can either try to find another link with pre 1939 Raleigh data (One option: try Monthly Wx Review from here: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/%C2'> Getting right year from each link is tricky but you'd figure it out) or use other cities actual vs. normal as a proxy such as Charlotte from the first link. #EDITED# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Even more impressive might be that 6 of the 7 cool to cold Niño DJF's that followed warm Oct's had 190% or more of normal SN/IP! **Edited several times** Followup to the above stat: So, for ATL, 6 of the 7 cool to cold Niño DJF's (-0.8 or colder anomaly) that followed warm Oct's had 190% or more of normal SN/IP! How impressive is that? Well, I'll now compare to the other 41 DJF's since 1879-80 that were -0.8 or colder at ATL. So, these 41 include all non-Nino's plus Nino's that didn't have a warm Oct. So, out of these 41 cool to cold DJF's, only 14 of those 41 winters had 190%+ of normal SN/IP or only 34%. Compare that to the 86% for cool to cold Niño DJF's that followed warm Oct's fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 ^ CR - Utah Climate Center should have what you are looking for - https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Best used in non-IE browser. Key in Raleigh station ID, then use 2-Customize Reports. Download to CSV. Import into Excel. Compute your averages. Here's another one - http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# (though I haven't used it much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 ^ On the Utah site, there's a filter on the mapping tool for "Add Inactives" - if you click on that it will activate on the map some stations that are inactive now, but have data going way back....e.g. it may have something for downtown Raleigh instead of RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 ^ On the Utah site, there's a filter on the mapping tool for "Add Inactives" - if you click on that it will activate on the map some stations that are inactive now, but have data going way back....e.g. it may have something for downtown Raleigh instead of RDU 1) Thanks Grit. Hopefully that will help CR with his research. 2) In summary, recipe for best shot at a snowy/icey 2014-5 winter for ATL and much of the interior SE, including all CAD regions, imo would be a. warm Oct.; b. Cool, or better yet, cold winter; c. We need to actually get at least to low end Nino lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 1) Thanks Grit. Hopefully that will help CR with his research. 2) In summary, recipe for best shot at a snowy/icey 2014-5 winter for ATL and much of the interior SE, including all CAD regions, imo would be a. warm Oct.; b. Cool, or better yet, cold winter; c. We need to actually get at least to low end Nino lol! Great data as always Larry! Your the man! I noticed from your data that the coldest winters in ATL had very little SN/IP and/or was below the average SN/IP for ATL winters. So I would assume the coldest winters had a suppressed storm track that allowed for below normal wintry precip. I would also assume these winters also had northwest flow for the majority of the time to cause the colder/drier data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 ^ CR - Utah Climate Center should have what you are looking for - https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php Best used in non-IE browser. Key in Raleigh station ID, then use 2-Customize Reports. Download to CSV. Import into Excel. Compute your averages. Here's another one - http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# (though I haven't used it much). Thanks bud! Really appreciate it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 LOL -- Wishing for a warm October.... It goes against every fabric of my being. But I'm with you guys... Mine too, but especially if you look at the 12z run, has a low of 70 and a high of 84 in Atlanta on the 15th of OCT, now this is getting a bit ridiculous. Is this out to lunch or what? Enough is enough. Last October was much colder than this appears to be heading and we had a relatively brutal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Mine too, but especially if you look at the 12z run, has a low of 70 and a high of 84 in Atlanta on the 15th of OCT, now this is getting a bit ridiculous. Is this out to lunch or what? Enough is enough. Last October was much colder than this appears to be heading and we had a relatively brutal winter. You gotta stop taking the 15 day gfs word for word. Anything past 8 days is always out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 You gotta stop taking the 15 day gfs word for word. Anything past 8 days is always out to lunch. This. Agreed. We are now forecasted to have a low of 34 on Sunday morning. 5-7 days ago the low on the GFS was in the 50's. So if it is changing that much in the 5-7 day range, no way it should be trusted 10-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 This. Agreed. We are now forecasted to have a low of 34 on Sunday morning. 5-7 days ago the low on the GFS was in the 50's. So if it is changing that much in the 5-7 day range, no way it should be trusted 10-15 days out. I know but the curiosity gets the best of me. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I know but the curiosity gets the best of me. Thanks It does me as well, and it may well verify that it's warm during that timeframe. But the trend on the GFS lately has been to get cooler as time approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Indications are the SE ridge could pop up later into October. Warmth may indeed be coming after this brief cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 You gotta stop taking the 15 day gfs word for word. Anything past 8 days is always out to lunch. +1 bud. Really both the GFS and the Euro out past 5 days are a toss up. The models change so much from day to day especially in the medium to long range. Hey I would rather be warm through October and the first of November then get hammered when it matters most. No need in wasting a great pattern in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Indications are the SE ridge could pop up later into October. Warmth may indeed be coming after this brief cold shot. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that last year especially in the fall and winter that the models constantly kept bringing the SE ridge in the 5-10 day range, only for it not to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Indications are the SE ridge could pop up later into October. Warmth may indeed be coming after this brief cold shot. So we might have highs in the mid to upper 70s instead of our usual low to mid 70s in mid to late October ? Either way, it's pretty comfortable right ? Above normal temps in mid to late October usually means very nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that last year especially in the fall and winter that the models constantly kept bringing the SE ridge in the 5-10 day range, only for it not to verify? Think this may generally be accurate especially into last winter past mid December when the pattern really flipped. Something to just keep track of if the ridge doesn't return in the long run like the GFS is suggesting. May show the models are overdoing the SE ridge comeback strength in the long term and can't quite shake it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 From CPC... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 10 - 16 2014 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS OF THE PREDICTED 8-14 DAY MEAN HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO BOTH THE 0Z AND 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS. THESE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE PREDICTED LONG-WAVES IN THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN, AND THEY ALSO ANTICIPATE THE CONUS TROUGH TO BE CENTERED IN THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES, WHEREAS THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS SAME TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL STATES. THE 0Z AND 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS ALSO FORECAST A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHEREAS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO NOT. THE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES IS HIGH, UNDERSCORING THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 So we might have highs in the mid to upper 70s instead of our usual low to mid 70s in mid to late October ? Either way, it's pretty comfortable right ? Above normal temps in mid to late October usually means very nice weather. October 'heat' is almost always bearable.. Today it was 87 in Chattanooga, and still not like a mid-July 87 feels. Wasn't bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 October 'heat' is almost always bearable.. Today it was 87 in Chattanooga, and still not like a mid-July 87 feels. Wasn't bad at all. Same here in Georgia. It was certainly a warm day, but very tolerable. I doubt it will get this hot the rest of the month or until next spring for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The more important focus should be the dry conditions! .21 about a week ago, then maybe a quarter of an inch tomorrow , then basically a dud front on Tuesday ! I understand fall is a dry period, but coming off a dry summer in my back yard, I am not looking forward to Oct " hot" for another few weeks! We need the wedge back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Mine too, but especially if you look at the 12z run, has a low of 70 and a high of 84 in Atlanta on the 15th of OCT, now this is getting a bit ridiculous. Is this out to lunch or what? Enough is enough. Last October was much colder than this appears to be heading and we had a relatively brutal winter. Believe it or not last October was warmer. There were 80 degree readings all the way up to October 13th! The 2nd half of the month was when it turned sharply colder but still ended up warmer than avg. See the attached link to compare temps from last year. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDK/2013/10/2/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Hopefully we have seen our last 80 degree day until next spring, although we could get close next week ( and maybe tomorrow). I find it strange how I'm forecast to get as low as 39 on Sunday morning but NYC isn't forecast to get colder than 50 in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 80s this time of year are certainly not welcome..lol MId 80's today, felt uncomfortable. Looking forward to 60s for highs and 40s for lows. ideal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 18z GFS backing off a bit from reestablishing the southeast ridge fwiw. Even builds a sharp trough back in very late in the long range. But like others have already quite rightly pointed out anything past 7 + on the models is glorified guestimating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 GSP is wondering about frost this weekend!! AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...UPPER HEIGHTS DO NOTBEGIN TO REBOUND UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THICKNESS VALUESCORRESPONDINGLY BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE FCST ISDRY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE ACRS MUCH OF THE MTNS ONSUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THE MORE COMMONLY TRUSTED BLENDED GUIDANCESUPPORTS FROSTY TEMPS IN MOST VALLEYS AND SOME OF THEFOOTHILLS...WITH A FREEZE ON HIGHER RIDGES. SOME OF THE INDIVIDUALMEMBERS GO SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TOO COLD.WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT LLVL FLOW...WINDMAY MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FROST. FURTHERMORE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW. AN ADVISORY COULD BE WARRANTED BUT THE DECISION MOST LIKELY WILL BE MADE SAT AFTN. MINS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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