jm1220 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Lots of smoke in the sky today, I'm guessing from the Canadian fires. http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/08/04/massive-smoke-clouds-from-canadian-wildfires-are-up-to-15-km-high-and-visible-all-the-way-to-portugal/ Basically, the smoke has entered the stratosphere through fire-caused thunderstorm clouds which punch their way above the tropopause and deposit smoke particles. From there they can make their way worldwide (smoke has been detected in Portugal!!). Due to the tropopause's lower height in the high temperate regions, fires in Canada can more easily deposit smoke into the stratosphere than over the tropics. And I definitely noticed the smoky sunrise this morning-this will likely continue for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 What models say 2 weeks out obviously should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 What models say 2 weeks out obviously should be taken with a grain of salt. This is true, but we can get an idea of the pattern regime through ensemble means, which is what Tom and I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pineywoodsli Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Very smoky late afternoon and evening skies. And despite low humidity, everytime I went outside I got a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Todays highs TEB: 85 NYC: 83 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 New Brunswick 83 TTN: 81 PHL: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 82/55 split here today, felt more like early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Cool night. First night I've been able to see my breath in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Could be the first summer without a heatwave since 2004 http://nypost.com/2014/08/08/summer-2014-is-coldest-in-a-decade/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Could be the first summer without a heatwave since 2004 http://nypost.com/2014/08/08/summer-2014-is-coldest-in-a-decade/ This call is premature at this stage. Plus it hasn't even been cold. We're right around normal. If it was truly a cold summer they'd probably think the Day After Tomorrow was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 This call is premature at this stage. Plus it hasn't even been cold. We're right around normal. If it was truly a cold summer they'd probably think the Day After Tomorrow was happening. The interesting thing is that we are getting the low 90 degree counts like 2009 but without the big negative departures. NYC has 4 90 degree days so far needs another 3 to tie 2009. I think NYC has a shot of finishing the summer without 3 90's in a row especially when the average high falls to 82 by August 20th. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/90degdays.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 The interesting thing is that we are getting the low 90 degree counts like 2009 but without the big negative departures. NYC has 4 90 degree days so far needs another 3 to tie 2009. I think NYC has a shot of finishing the summer without 3 90's in a row especially when the average high falls to 82 by August 20th. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/90degdays.htm add to that that many reporting stations - Newark being an example have not reached 90 yet this month and now we should start watching for no 90 degree readings in August 2014 - the GFS through the 25th does not reach 90 - even 2009 had a few 90 degree days in August at Newark - anyone know when the last time Newark did not reach 90 in August ? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/8/2/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 add to that that many reporting stations - Newark being an example have not reached 90 yet this month and now we should start watching for no 90 degree readings in August 2014 - the GFS through the 25th does not reach 90 - even 2009 had a few 90 degree days in August at Newark - anyone know when the last time Newark did not reach 90 in August ? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/8/2/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA I haven't found any in Newark. GFS and ECM continue to look warm/hot 8/18 - the end of the month. Wouldn't surprise me to see a sneaky 90 today or Monday near Newark, if not then we'll see if the idea of more pronounced ridging into the east develops as modeled for the last 2 weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 The interesting thing is that we are getting the low 90 degree counts like 2009 but without the big negative departures. NYC has 4 90 degree days so far needs another 3 to tie 2009. I think NYC has a shot of finishing the summer without 3 90's in a row especially when the average high falls to 82 by August 20th. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/90degdays.htm Exactly right bluewave 2009, 2004, 2000, 1996 featured more 90s but departures were more than 2 degrees cooler in July and June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Exactly right bluewave 2009, 2004, 2000, 1996 featured more 90s but departures were more than 2 degrees cooler in July and June Yeah, I think that it is the trough pattern near the Great Lakes so far this summer keeping a lid on the 90 degree day totals. But the ridging over the Canadian Maritimes was close enough to prevent the stronger negative departures like we saw in those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I haven't found any in Newark. GFS and ECM continue to look warm/hot 8/18 - the end of the month. Wouldn't surprise me to see a sneaky 90 today or Monday near Newark, if not then we'll see if the idea of more pronounced ridging into the east develops as modeled for the last 2 weeks of the month. today and tomorrow is forecasted to be upper 80's at Newark - would be very surprised to see a 90 with a north wind today and a northeast breeze tomorrow - will also need 100% sunshine - if it does reach 90 would be for a very brief period. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 11AM Roundup TEB: 81 NYC: 78 EWR:81 LGA: 80 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 NEw Brnswick: 80 BLM: 79 TTN: 78 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Top 10 Summer day today. Weekend weather has been 90% fantastic this summer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qrS-9DPuFg Blue skies nuttin but blue skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 we hit mid 90's last sept 11th with dewpoints in the 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 we hit mid 90's last sept 11th with dewpoints in the 70's 1983 featured several mid/upper 90s in September as did 1991. 2010 the blowtorch summer had many 90s as well. 1953 was the record famous heatwave with 100+ temps into Septmeber.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 we hit mid 90's last sept 11th with dewpoints in the 70'syeah 94/74 split here that day, was followed by over an inch of rain the next day.... after a high of 84 on the 12th , that was pretty much it for warmth as no day hit 80 for remainder of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I think NYC has a very good chance for its first official heat wave sometime during the August 19th-30th period. Pattern continues to evolve toward the hotter late August idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 11AM Roundup TEB: 81 NYC: 78 EWR:81 LGA: 80 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 NEw Brnswick: 80 BLM: 79 TTN: 78 ACY: 80 Noon roundup TEB: 84 NYC: 82 EWR:82 LGA: 82 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 NEw Brnswick: 83 BLM: 83 TTN: 81 ACY: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I think NYC has a very good chance for its first official heat wave sometime during the August 19th-30th period. Pattern continues to evolve toward the hotter late August idea. The 12z GEFS has a heat wave signal during this period. Possibly the seeing ridge north of Hawaii being enhanced by Hurricane Julio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I think Upton needs to find out why Linden NJ is 6 degrees warmer then Newark NJ they are less then 10 miles apart http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 In and out of clouds the last 2 hours. Temps down from 87 earlier to 84 now. But more clearing working south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I think Upton needs to find out why Linden NJ is 6 degrees warmer then Newark NJ they are less then 10 miles apart http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html I looked up when the site with the help of google maps...It looks like the temp obs are on a patch of grass not far from an asphalt parking lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Todays highs - more clouds than expected TEB: 89 NYC: 87 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 JFK: 86 ISP: 85 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 ACY: 84 PHL: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Latest GFS has no precip. for 9 days starting on the 14th. Official outlooks 6-10 and 8-14 have above normal precip. here for the period, but 8-14 picking up on the above normal temps. potential---which would go with a preceeding/concurrent dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Latest GFS has no precip. for 9 days starting on the 14th. Official outlooks 6-10 and 8-14 have above normal precip. here for the period, but 8-14 picking up on the above normal temps. potential---which would go with a preceeding/concurrent dry period. Actually its even longer than that. Dry all the way through the 25th. Its also drier for the Tuesday/Wednesday rain than the euro is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I looked up when the site with the help of google maps...It looks like the temp obs are on a patch of grass not far from an asphalt parking lot... Well what about that hot July in the Governour's Island records of 81.3 degs. in 1825 which is just shy of July 1999 by .1 deg. If today's heat island effect is worth just .2degs. then would not July 1825 be the hottest month here in NYC. You can argue forever over these seeming inconsistiences with prevailing wind directions or surrounding vegetation being blamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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