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T-Storms Part 2 : "North and West of the city!"


TalcottWx

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look inside at the beginning, concrete walls

I obviously have zero experience when it comes to this type of stuff but my initial guess was around an EF2 or EF3...these things can also be hard to judge b/c of wind concentration...you can have cases were you have such strong winds but they are really concentrated and other times the winds are more "symmetrical".

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No, wasn't implykng that. I just meant that the violent motion in both horizontal and vertical can do that...probably more likely if it's close to weak EF1 but I've read where it had happened.

Meaning winds closer to EF1 to flip cars. Who knows how strong this was. Seems like ****ty construction there too.

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Anyone else think if the garage door was closed it might have survived?

 

Here's the long version

 

I'm betting the open door had a lot to do with it. I mean winds were strong enough to remove shingles, but the open door just allows an easy entrance point for wind. It's not that hard to significant wind gusts (70+) to push down those concrete blocks.

 

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yea all that ... but for me I'm like ... how in the f did that individual get into a situation where he/she was leaving his/her home, in his/her car, with an EF2 tornado less than shouting distance??!!

Two words: Darwin Award. ...certainly an honorable mention!

you go directly into the garage from the house, open the garage door, back out and start driving and then crap your pants
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you go directly into the garage from the house, open the garage door, back out and start driving and then crap your pants

 

i guess.  

 

well, upon further thought ... its less likely for a Met that is actually interesting in weather, and not just fantacising the warm season away in a wash of cold weather delusions ... to be in that situation. Even if said sane person hadn't turned on media that faithful day of home-owner's insurance claims, there native awareness that's perpetual in a sense, would have them knowing ahead of time of such risk. 

 

For all others, it could just be their dumb luck that exposes them to their demise. Not everyone checks the weather before they leave; but then again, that's their fault.  

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i guess.

well, upon further thought ... its less likely for a Met that is actually interesting in weather, and not just fantacising the warm season away in a wash of cold weather delusions ... to be in that situation. Even if said sane person hadn't turned on media that faithful day of home-owner's insurance claims, there native awareness that's perpetual in a sense, would have them knowing ahead of time of such risk.

For all others, it could just be their dumb luck that exposes them to their demise. Not everyone checks the weather before they leave; but then again, that's their fault.

it's Russia
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I'm betting the open door had a lot to do with it. I mean winds were strong enough to remove shingles, but the open door just allows an easy entrance point for wind. It's not that hard to significant wind gusts (70+) to push down those concrete blocks.

 

 

Exactly why the whole, "opening all the windows in the house to stabilize the pressure or whatever" is a myth.  

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Wicked squall going through western NY.

KFZY gusted to 44 mph and Syracuse to 68mph!

I can't believe that little pencil thin line produced 59kts at SYR! They didn't even record any real rain with it. Just SQ...what does the ASOS need to see to justify the "squall" observation?

KSYR 132037Z 28023G59KT 10SM SQ FEW026 SCT035 BKN070 17/12 A3009 AO2 PK WND 25059/2031 WSHFT 2023 CIG 038 NW PRESRR T01670117

I'm assuming it's a short ramp up of winds or gusty winds then quick decrease (ie is time a factor)? Or is it just the difference between sustained wind and the gust?

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I can't believe that little pencil thin line produced 59kts at SYR! They didn't even record any real rain with it. Just SQ...what does the ASOS need to see to justify the "squall" observation?

KSYR 132037Z 28023G59KT 10SM SQ FEW026 SCT035 BKN070 17/12 A3009 AO2 PK WND 25059/2031 WSHFT 2023 CIG 038 NW PRESRR T01670117

I'm assuming it's a short ramp up of winds or gusty winds then quick decrease (ie is time a factor)? Or is it just the difference between sustained wind and the gust?

 

Correction, speed increasing by at least 16 knots to over 22 knots for at least a minute.

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Not so sure tomorrow doesn't get sneaky interesting...  

 

There's a ..however well known 24-hour lag teleconnector for severe in and around the GL transmitting downwind into New England, and today, ample mid level streak dynamics zipping over decent heating and DP advection is causing some severe concern.  As modeling goes ... the impulse and attended advection terms migrate up over our region tomorrow, and as is typically the case by SPC, ...they've elected to reduce any risk to just "See TXT"  ... We see this from time to time tho, and that could easily be upgrade in short lead to SLGHT if need be.

 

In any event, I feel the sky cover could be too pessimistic with deep layer SW flow .. .much like today has seen some signficant fracturing/sky-lights open in coverage -- not a-typical for SW flow, and well then we have to consider a tick or two better SBCAPE.  Tomorrow we also start with higher launch pad after advecting in theta-e overnight.  If it does go partial by 10 or 11am then I bit we see TCU soon thereafter. 

 

Haven't seen the other indices but just the look of the thing.

 

Caveat also being that thing trying to come up the coast. NAM's pretty aggressive but keeps most of it off-shore.    

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I've been casually watching tomorrow for severe further west, but there are hints of some pre-frontal trough where some showers and storms could initiate. We're in the in-between as you mentioned with the low offshore and another moving into the eastern Great Lakes. Even the courser GFS shows a sliver of higher RH values in the mid-levels, but that doesn't reached western New England until 00z. Given that the shortwave axis remains so far west, I doubt we'll see anything organized. Perhaps a few stray pulsers or maybe a broken line of something late in the day. Despite stronger wind shear across PA/NY, even the threat there looks fairly iffy. Who knows, maybe we do manage do clear out to start the day, but anything beyond that is a long shot.

The analogs do show one flukey early morning tornado report on Long Island with the 9/15/2000 setup. Timing is a bit off, but that featured a shortwave of similar position and strength as to what's expected tomorrow.

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Drove past the tornado site in Revere this weekend... definitely caught my attention as to the extent of the damage.   It wasn't on my mind at all, didn't even realize I was on the same road, until I arrived and immediately knew that a tornado had come through recently.  Impressive stuff and the SRH numbers that were posted here are just spectacular.

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Drove past the tornado site in Revere this weekend... definitely caught my attention as to the extent of the damage.   It wasn't on my mind at all, didn't even realize I was on the same road, until I arrived and immediately knew that a tornado had come through recently.  Impressive stuff and the SRH numbers that were posted here are just spectacular.

 

Yup... considering boundary layer winds were out of the E/NE when tornadogenesis occurred. Not exactly a common setup for a North Shore tornado!

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