downeastnc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Wow Wilson has 49,000 residences. Most of Wilson is west of I 95 and the couplet looks to slip tio the east and eastern Wilson Co is pretty much farm country...... edit: newer couplet forming SW of Wilson that could be big trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That ILX sounding is impressive. Get those mid level lapse rates a little steeper, and that's going to be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 That ILX sounding is impressive. Get those mid level lapse rates a little steeper, and that's going to be something to watch. I think you mean LIX, ILX is the WFO in Lincoln, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 TOG with both NC warnings now. edit: actually the TORR near Wilson is for a different storm than the one that was initially warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Where is the warning N of Kenly, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I think you mean LIX, ILX is the WFO in Lincoln, IL. LOL, yes...brain scrambled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Storm NE of JAN has some rotation per free NWS Doppler radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Report of a house off the foundation in Stedman, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL / SRN MIDDLE TN /EXTREME NWRN GACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 292027Z - 292100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN MS AND MOVEDOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INCREASE INSTORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. AWATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVERNERN MS SWWD INTO CNTRL MS ALONG A NARROW PLUME OF GREATERINSTABILITY ALONG A COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT. THE AIRMASS OVER CNTRLAND NRN AL IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVEOVERTURNING OF THIS AIRMASS FROM THE MORNING MCS OVER THE NERN GULFHAS TEMPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. THE 18Z BMX RAOBEXHIBITED POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BELOW 5 DEG C PER KM/ ANDLOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM THE AREA IN WAKE OF THEMCS. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST SEVERETHREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Could the MLCAPE partially overcome the poor mid-level lapse rates in ctrl AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 New warning, why isn't that rotation to the NE warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 New warning, why isn't that rotation to the NE warned? Both are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 looks like they have just about everything tornado warned in NC now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 NE Mississippi is beginning to light up with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / NRN AND CNTRL AL / SRN MIDDLE TN / EXTREME NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 292027Z - 292100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN MS AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NERN MS SWWD INTO CNTRL MS ALONG A NARROW PLUME OF GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG A COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT. THE AIRMASS OVER CNTRL AND NRN AL IS BECOMING MORE BUOYANT BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OF THIS AIRMASS FROM THE MORNING MCS OVER THE NERN GULF HAS TEMPERED THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. THE 18Z BMX RAOB EXHIBITED POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BELOW 5 DEG C PER KM/ AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE EMANATING FROM THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE MCS. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Could the MLCAPE partially overcome the poor mid-level lapse rates in ctrl AL? You can see this well on the SPC site, that's what some have been saying regarding advecting those steeper rates in. There is no question steep mid level lapse rates allow for explosive development of supercells and allow for violent updrafts to help sustain long track storms. However good CAPE in the 0-3km will allow for low level stretching and tornado development too...but perhaps not as strong or long track as what you would see with more of an EML present. That's kind of the wild card we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 6 tornado warnings currently active in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Confirmed Tornado on the ground 7 miles SE of Wilson moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Echo tops really exploding on the cell SW of Carthage, MS, up to 45,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Wow, if this keeps up sirens are going to be blaring in the same towns for the foreseeable future. Scary situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 looks like that hook/RFD is detaching from the storm, 7 SE of Wilson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Wow, all those NC storms are lined up right on the edge of the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That second warned tornado posses a much greater threat to population in Wilson, NC then the first one that passed to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Storm is starting to rotate pretty nicely aloft southeast of Standing Pine MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Tuscaloosa up to 80/66 there, rapid recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Significant further development of / potential for strong tornadoes in srn and s-ctrl MS will likely wait for a couple more hours before mid-level lapse rates finally steepen enough to allow for such development. Temperatures are well into the 80s over in LA, SW of the MDT Risk area, which may also help develop a hint of a mesolow along the gradient over near the Red River in LA, thereby bolstering low-level helicities a bit. (Or would the hint of a mesolow not develop? Please feel free to correct me.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Funnel Cloud reported about 15 miles south of Rocky Mount, NC. These North Carolina storms have taken me by surprise... Meanwhile, MS/AL looks to be eerily quite right now. New Tornado Watch up for the Birmingham area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Significant further development of / potential for strong tornadoes in srn and s-ctrl MS will likely wait for a couple more hours before mid-level lapse rates finally steepen enough to allow for such development. Temperatures are well into the 80s over in LA, SW of the MDT Risk area, which may also help develop a hint of a mesolow along the gradient over near the Red River in LA, thereby bolstering low-level helicities a bit. (Or would the hint of a mesolow not develop? Please feel free to correct me.) Something is definitely missing so far in Mississippi. Not even a tornado-warned cell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 http://weather.weatherbug.com/NC/Wilson-weather/weather-cams/local-cams.html?zcode=z6286&stat=WLSWT&camera_id=WLSWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 355 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EJECTING MID-UPPER JET STREAK. RECOVERY FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS BEEN SLOWED BY CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY POOR PER 18Z BMX AND 20Z UAH SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WIND PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR ALOFT...IN THE ZONE OF POOR LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS REGARDING ANY HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A CLUSTER LATER. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I think the cell west of Philadelphia MS is about to develop rotation and get a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Something is definitely missing so far in Mississippi. Not even a tornado-warned cell yet. These storms are still in their developmental stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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