Wmsptwx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Past 1am CDT and the NE Alabama cell still looks strong. Really amazing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 From 0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK -- http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/latest.acus01.KWNS.html GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WHICH PERSISTS ATTM...DEGREE OF RISK REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND THUS HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE/TORNADO AREAS ATTM. ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CLEAR...FURTHER REFINEMENTS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE TO BETTER HIGHLIGHT MORE SPECIFIC AREAS/RISK LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That's an interesting take on the D1 outlook with regard to significant/severe areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That is one ugly TDS just west of Phenix City Alabama..wow SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL402 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014ALC081-290930-/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140429T0930Z/LEE AL-402 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTYUNTIL 430 AM CDT......TORNADO EMERGENCY SOUTHEASTERN FOR LEE COUNTY...AT 359 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING ACONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OFGRIFFEN MILL...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMITHS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Here is the 09z radar imagery to go with that tornado emergency near the AL/GA border. It was nasty for a couple of volume scans but has since fallen apart. Something definitely got nailed just northeast of Crawford there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The area with the TDS was definitely over homes as per the GR Analyst background....not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 What a powerful system...I didn't expect to wake up today and see tornados still ongoing down south (I woke up in time to see the one Arnold214 posted above). Speaking of which, nothing from NWS, but looks like some weak rotation south of Atlanta, near Griffin. Edit: And the rotation dissipated just as fast. Gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Well... That Crawford storm was fun to track from work with wall to wall coverage. Hearing about a TON of damage just north of Crawford & Highway 80. I started tweeting about it near Little Texas in eastern Macon County and it all of a sudden exploded! Pretty impressive to watch that hook unfold... Impressive, yet scary when it's going over your viewing area. Here's hoping everyone made it out of this one... :/ EDIT: Here's a look at the Radar Loop of the storm. It intensified as it rolled over Highway 80 and lifted north towards Smiths Station and eventually broke apart in extreme northeastern Muscogee County. Damage reported from Highway 80, through Smiths Station to northeastern Muscogee County. http://twitpic.com/e2eprs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Ian compiled a list of some videos from the 27th/28th http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/04/29/videos-from-the-april-27-28-29-30-2014-tornado-outbreak-sequence/#more-4530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 It's cool and drizzling here this morning. I'm hoping the clouds stick around today and keep the instability down in the Triangle. It looks like RAH thinks the front will drift north and Raleigh will be right on the line, though. Maybe we can dodge a bullet here today, but it's going to be hard to dodge it today and tomorrow, too. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC549 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES HIGHLY PROBABLEACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE NEARSURFACE AIR MASS IS STABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE ISEXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTSECTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSSTHE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.IN ADDITION...THE WIND PROFILE OVER OUR REGION WILL BE FAVORABLEFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTAIN ROTATINGUPDRAFTS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL OF PRODUCINGSEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES.LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS... ANDSPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BEPREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIONS AND AUGMENT STAFFING THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THELATEST WEATHER INFORMATION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ASOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION READILY AVAILABLE. ALSO...MAKECONTINGENT PLANS NOW OF WHERE YOU WOULD GO TO TAKE SHELTER IN THEEVENT OF WEATHER EMERGENCY WHETHER YOU ARE AT HOME...WORK...OR INYOUR CAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Any thoughts on what we might see in Central KY? Lots of cloud cover at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 What time are we looking at for initiation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 More gravity waves setting up over the warm sector per satellite…can't be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Most of MS is wide open, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I suspect the radar-indicated was a typo/paste error of some sort. It's all done through radio buttons, and the default is radar indicated. So if you are trying to pump out a quick TOR that will likely be the "mistake" that the radio button isn't changed from radar indicated to spotter confirmed. But that's what a SVS is for, updating a warning with new information about reports or location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Yowza. That's pretty wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I seriously think this thing is done, but then again there was the storm on near Lynchburg, TN that was pulling in nothing but rain-cooled inflow and it had a tornado on it. Sort of. Here is the 00z sounding from BNA as an example. The low levels were indeed stable, but you don't have to go very far aloft to get into the unstable air. The inflow was still pulling in unstable air, and when helicity is high enough and stable layer shallow enough these storms can still remain or become surface based quite easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Most of MS is wide open, not good. 1015 update shows the NW corner of AL starting to clear out a lot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 MODIS image showing the scar in AR from Sunday's prelim EF-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Sort of. Here is the 00z sounding from BNA as an example. The low levels were indeed stable, but you don't have to go very far aloft to get into the unstable air. The inflow was still pulling in unstable air, and when helicity is high enough and stable layer shallow enough these storms can still remain or become surface based quite easily. BNA.gif 50KTS around 930mb. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Our winds here in Southeast Mississippi at the surface have now backed and are coming out of the Southeast. Not sure I like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Our winds here in Southeast Mississippi at the surface have now backed and are coming out of the Southeast. Not sure I like that... RAP forecast shows a nice recovery in air mass across the area. Not quite to the extent the SPC has the moderate risk, but at the very least Columbia to Meridian to Birmingham and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Not good. Very small contour of an STP value of 15 on the 12z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 RAP forecast shows a nice recovery in air mass across the area. Not quite to the extent the SPC has the moderate risk, but at the very least Columbia to Meridian to Birmingham and east. Isn't the relatively early initiation of convection over the Delta (wrn MS) one of the reasons why a High Risk may not be issued at 1630Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Wow... Loaded Gun at 12z in Lake Charles. Move that airmass into MS with backed winds and holy flying cows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Isn't the relatively early initiation of convection over the Delta (wrn MS) one of the reasons why a High Risk may not be issued at 1630Z? There is uncertainty regarding northward recovery of the air mass, but I'm not sure that's the sole reason for the lack of a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You can see the convection modified mid level lapse rates too. LCH is on the edge of the steep mid level lapse rates and those will need to be advected in as well. Models do eventually advect it in during the aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 RAP forecast shows a nice recovery in air mass across the area. Not quite to the extent the SPC has the moderate risk, but at the very least Columbia to Meridian to Birmingham and east. It's a battle of the RAP/12-km NAM vs. 4-km NAM/HRRR/EMC WRF as to airmass recovery extent and low-level shear. Given the performance yesterday, I'll hedge my bets on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.