IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The NHC is watching an area currently over Alabama and the Euro model is showing a possibility of it becoming something and heading towards the New England area the last 2 runs similar to Beryl in 2006 which IMO is a good analog storm to compare this to as that year too was an El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Looks more like a frontal wave to me with a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Well Kevin is hyping this to me via text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Looks more like a frontal wave to me with a ton of moisture. It starts off the Carolina coast and then slowly gets tugged north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 It starts off the Carolina coast and then slowly gets tugged north. It has gusty winds on the east side, but I wasn't too impressed. Verbatim a hell of a rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 It has gusty winds on the east side, but I wasn't too impressed. Verbatim a hell of a rain maker. It could be a nasty scenario if it gets hung up down south long enough. Most of the 12z ECMWF ensembles are east of the op but a good number of them have development by the end of this weekend. We might also get some interaction with a frontal boundary if the timing works out. Finally something to break this borring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I know it's the SREF but every single 15z SREF member develops this by Saturday. Worth mentioning at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Now have 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 How does South Florida weather look in regards to July 5-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Euro is a close call for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Euro is a close call for ACK. Nice to have something to watch. Nice banding this afternoon as the SSW drift continues. I would think if the north sheer drops off and convection starts over the LLC this thing could ramp up fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Euro is a close call for ACK.OTS AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Still 7 days away by wednesday we will see how it looks going to misquamicut next weekend surf should be up atleast OTS AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Possible predecessor rain event prior to Arthur's closest pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Would be neat and something to talk about if this turns out to be a threat I might say screw misquamicut and go to north carolina for the weekend Possible predecessor rain event prior to Arthur's closest pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Always good to see coastals regardless of origin. Precursors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The models are consistently deepening the low as it comes north. Could be rapid transition to extra tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Flight to FLL out of BOS Saturday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Need something to change if we want action North of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 18Z GFS sure has soon to be Arthur making a close pass to ACK early Sat AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I really don't see more than showers and a really windy day on mvy/ack right now. Maybe even just a gusty day when all is said and done. I'm almost completely ignoring the storm center itself, pre and tropical downpours flooding etc is the real threat. This thing is barely formed anyways. Once it develops modeled track will probably waver... cant do anything but favor the climo train that'll chug this well offshore most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Surprised more people aren't talking about this on here... All the models have been shifting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is too much to talk about unless you like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is too much to talk about unless you like rain. Exactly. What a downer. 2 parties - one on Fri, and one on Sat. Neither one has provisions for indoor festivities. Oh well, I suppose we should have expected this as tropical action is so common around here during the first freaking weak of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Sad part is the weenie in me is rooting on the rain. Patheticm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is too much to talk about unless you like rain. Really? The latest HWRF has a 995 center crossing over or near Rhode Island... not much to talk about? 50-60 MPH winds is a big deal around here figuring we very rarely get more then 20 MPH. Not saying the HWRF is a good model at all or is reliable, but it is only bout 96 hrs out and the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I don't think there is too much to talk about unless you like rain. You better tell that to JB: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Really? The latest HWRF has a 995 center crossing over or near Rhode Island... not much to talk about? 50-60 MPH winds is a big deal around here figuring we very rarely get more then 20 MPH. Not saying the HWRF is a good model at all or is reliable, but it is only bout 96 hrs out and the potential is there. I see virtually no support for that though. With the exception of rain I see little direct impact outside of maybe ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I see virtually no support for that though. With the exception of rain I see little direct impact outside of maybe ACK. GFS is very close to the coast... all the models have been trending west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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