Spring 2014 Banter Thread

[IsentropicLift]

Prepare for historic warmth then

That would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth.

[Stormlover74]

That would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth.

That would be awful. We'd have to mow and deal with mosquitoes

[IsentropicLift]

That would be awful. We'd have to mow and deal with mosquitoes

I read that a harsher winter does nothing to prevent misquotes, they lay dormant in the soil all winter long.

[Brian5671]

That would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth.

yeah, once I realized winter was dead on arrival in years like 01-02, 11-12, I embraced the warmth and rooted it on.

[Stormlover74]

I read that a harsher winter does nothing to prevent misquotes, they lay dormant in the soil all winter long.

I meant if we had that warm a winter the mosquitoes would never leave

[SnoSki14]

You risk vegetation damage in a very warm winter as various flowering plants and trees can start to blossom early only to be put in risk during a sudden quick burst of well below freezing temperatures. You also take an economic hit due to a cessation of all winter activity due to warm weather. I know the public would love another 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 but there's something very unnatural about those types of winters that seem to throw the natural order off balance. 

 

I have no idea how the upcoming winter will be but a moderate El Nino along with possible western ridging due to well above SSTs off the northwest coast are a nice signal. The NAO is often the key ingredient in an El Nino winter as opposed to a neutral winter where the EPO could take over everything. We can see plenty of high QPF events in an El Nino winter but they could all be too warm or rain if the NAO doesn't cooperate even during a perfect track in January. 

[IsentropicLift]

You risk vegetation damage in a very warm winter as various flowering plants and trees can start to blossom early only to be put in risk during a sudden quick burst of well below freezing temperatures. You also take an economic hit due to a cessation of all winter activity due to warm weather. I know the public would love another 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 but there's something very unnatural about those types of winters that seem to throw the natural order off balance.

I have no idea how the upcoming winter will be but a moderate El Nino along with possible western ridging due to well above SSTs off the northwest coast are a nice signal. The NAO is often the key ingredient in an El Nino winter as opposed to a neutral winter where the EPO could take over everything. We can see plenty of high QPF events in an El Nino winter but they could all be too warm or rain if the NAO doesn't cooperate even during a perfect track in January.

Anything but cold and dry. I'd take mild and wet or cool and snowy.

[Rjay]

Anything but cold and dry. I'd take mild and wet or cool and snowy.

I'm with you on this one. Maybe cold instead of cool lol.

[IsentropicLift]

I'm with you on this one. Maybe cold instead of cool lol.

I prefer cool, like 30's and 40's for highs instead of teens and twenties. Unless it's going to snow.

[mob1]

As a skier I despise above freezing temperatures in the winter, although I really enjoy the cold anyways so I actually like single digit temperatures.

[MJO812]

This humidity sucks

[Stormlover74]

This humidity sucks

Yeah its been cool at night but still need the AC to sleep

[IsentropicLift]

Feels like a tropical rainforest today in my office. Oppressive humidity even with AC on.

[Isotherm]

If it's not snowing I still want it cold from November through March. I actually think 30-40F by day and 10-20F at night is beautiful if you've got full sun.

[PB GFI]

If it's not snowing I still want it cold from November through March. I actually think 30-40F by day and 10-20F at night is beautiful if you've got full sun.

I love EPO` s 5SD below normal . Wana keep that look from  Dec - Feb 

[IsentropicLift]

What's great about bone chilling cold in the winter? Unless it's producing snow cold is a nuisance to me.

[IsentropicLift]

My favorite misinformed comment during the winter season is that cold periods will make it less likely for the coast to change to rain during a coastal storm. It could be below zero for ten days in a row and if the track and thermal profiles aren't perfect as the storm is approaching it means nothing.

 

If we didn't have that annoying PV last year we wouldn't have had so many suppression blues.

[PB GFI]

My favorite misinformed comment during the winter season is that cold periods will make it less likely for the coast to change to rain during a coastal storm. It could be below zero for ten days in a row and if the track and thermal profiles aren't perfect as the storm is approaching it means nothing.

 

If we didn't have that annoying PV last year we wouldn't have had so many suppression blues.

That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . 

[Brian5671]

That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . 

you would have had  100 without the PV

[IsentropicLift]

That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . 

And it yielded me much less. The PV screw zone was from I-80 north.

[Stormlover74]

Of course when I was in Nashville last week I got barely a shower now its been practically nonstop storms for the past 5 days. Pretty impressive 24 hour totals across a rather large area

 

[PB GFI]

you would have had  100 without the PV

You would have rained in Dec and Jan with that  neg PNA and pos NAO .You got burned in March but by that time the damage was done.

[IsentropicLift]

You would have rained in Dec and Jan with that  neg PNA and pos NAO .You got burned in March but by that time the damage was done.

Last year was a double edged sword.

 

We did manage to pull off a lot of nickel and dime events and even a few quarters, but I still never got my PDII redux despite numerous great over running setups.

[forkyfork]

thank climate change (partially) for last winter

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract

[Brian5671]

thank climate change (partially) for last winter

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract

[forkyfork]

feel free to counter the points made in the paper. here's the full text:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/full

[PB GFI]

feel free to counter the points made in the paper. here's the full text:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/full

Couldn`t tell you how that warm water ended up so strong south of the Aleutians  but would love for that look to be back this winter.  

Having those height fields hook over the top made the difference between the 2M temps and 500MB  stark . 

[jm1220]

The idea that all anomalies at this point are caused by climate change is becoming pretty absurd. We've had cold, snowy winters many times in the past and will again despite climate change. Everything and anything is being blamed on it now and all it does is make people apathetic to it even more.

[mob1]

But climate change can certainly accentuate certain features and patterns. Do blatantly dismiss the article is also a wee bit closed minded.

[PB GFI]

But climate change can certainly accentuate certain features and patterns. Do blatantly dismiss the article is also a wee bit closed minded.

When does climate not change ?