jm1220 Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Jb issued his winter forecast today. Cold and snowy winter on the way lol El Nino=suppression depression. Congrats Richmond!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 El Nino=suppression depression. Congrats Richmond!! 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 El Nino=suppression depression. Congrats Richmond!! It's all dependent upon the NAO and PNA like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 My thoughts are next winter will feature good blocking with less snow chances overall but more blockbuster events. That should mean less cold and dry than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 ^^ 2010-2011:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Jb issued his winter forecast today. Cold and snowy winter on the way lol Prepare for historic warmth then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Prepare for historic warmth thenThat would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth. That would be awful. We'd have to mow and deal with mosquitoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That would be awful. We'd have to mow and deal with mosquitoesI read that a harsher winter does nothing to prevent misquotes, they lay dormant in the soil all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That would be kinda cool as long as we went all in record warmth, like an average high of 60 in January would be awesome. I always felt that if it's not going to snow I'd rather have warmth. yeah, once I realized winter was dead on arrival in years like 01-02, 11-12, I embraced the warmth and rooted it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I read that a harsher winter does nothing to prevent misquotes, they lay dormant in the soil all winter long. I meant if we had that warm a winter the mosquitoes would never leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 You risk vegetation damage in a very warm winter as various flowering plants and trees can start to blossom early only to be put in risk during a sudden quick burst of well below freezing temperatures. You also take an economic hit due to a cessation of all winter activity due to warm weather. I know the public would love another 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 but there's something very unnatural about those types of winters that seem to throw the natural order off balance. I have no idea how the upcoming winter will be but a moderate El Nino along with possible western ridging due to well above SSTs off the northwest coast are a nice signal. The NAO is often the key ingredient in an El Nino winter as opposed to a neutral winter where the EPO could take over everything. We can see plenty of high QPF events in an El Nino winter but they could all be too warm or rain if the NAO doesn't cooperate even during a perfect track in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 You risk vegetation damage in a very warm winter as various flowering plants and trees can start to blossom early only to be put in risk during a sudden quick burst of well below freezing temperatures. You also take an economic hit due to a cessation of all winter activity due to warm weather. I know the public would love another 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 but there's something very unnatural about those types of winters that seem to throw the natural order off balance. I have no idea how the upcoming winter will be but a moderate El Nino along with possible western ridging due to well above SSTs off the northwest coast are a nice signal. The NAO is often the key ingredient in an El Nino winter as opposed to a neutral winter where the EPO could take over everything. We can see plenty of high QPF events in an El Nino winter but they could all be too warm or rain if the NAO doesn't cooperate even during a perfect track in January. Anything but cold and dry. I'd take mild and wet or cool and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Anything but cold and dry. I'd take mild and wet or cool and snowy. I'm with you on this one. Maybe cold instead of cool lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 I'm with you on this one. Maybe cold instead of cool lol.I prefer cool, like 30's and 40's for highs instead of teens and twenties. Unless it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 As a skier I despise above freezing temperatures in the winter, although I really enjoy the cold anyways so I actually like single digit temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 This humidity sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 This humidity sucks Yeah its been cool at night but still need the AC to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Feels like a tropical rainforest today in my office. Oppressive humidity even with AC on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 If it's not snowing I still want it cold from November through March. I actually think 30-40F by day and 10-20F at night is beautiful if you've got full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 If it's not snowing I still want it cold from November through March. I actually think 30-40F by day and 10-20F at night is beautiful if you've got full sun. I love EPO` s 5SD below normal . Wana keep that look from Dec - Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 What's great about bone chilling cold in the winter? Unless it's producing snow cold is a nuisance to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 My favorite misinformed comment during the winter season is that cold periods will make it less likely for the coast to change to rain during a coastal storm. It could be below zero for ten days in a row and if the track and thermal profiles aren't perfect as the storm is approaching it means nothing. If we didn't have that annoying PV last year we wouldn't have had so many suppression blues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 My favorite misinformed comment during the winter season is that cold periods will make it less likely for the coast to change to rain during a coastal storm. It could be below zero for ten days in a row and if the track and thermal profiles aren't perfect as the storm is approaching it means nothing. If we didn't have that annoying PV last year we wouldn't have had so many suppression blues. That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . you would have had 100 without the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That annoyance yielded me 73 inches thank you . And it yielded me much less. The PV screw zone was from I-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Of course when I was in Nashville last week I got barely a shower now its been practically nonstop storms for the past 5 days. Pretty impressive 24 hour totals across a rather large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 you would have had 100 without the PV You would have rained in Dec and Jan with that neg PNA and pos NAO .You got burned in March but by that time the damage was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 You would have rained in Dec and Jan with that neg PNA and pos NAO .You got burned in March but by that time the damage was done. Last year was a double edged sword. We did manage to pull off a lot of nickel and dime events and even a few quarters, but I still never got my PDII redux despite numerous great over running setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 thank climate change (partially) for last winter http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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