IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 While the models are still wavering on the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall the overall trend today continues with focusing it just NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I did not look at soundings but the 12Z NAM certainly looks like it could be snow Sunday afternoon and evening with the upper low based purely on upper levels, BL probably too warm, of course its the NAM way out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looks like a wet stretch that is for sure. 2-4 inches of rain seems like a good bet for most as guidance holds and even gets a bit wetter generally speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I did not look at soundings but the 12Z NAM certainly looks like it could be snow Sunday afternoon and evening with the upper low based purely on upper levels, BL probably too warm, of course its the NAM way out of its range. 12z NAM now has snow ending with 2.2" for KSWF. Today's 06z NAM, had the event ending as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 While the models are still wavering on the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall the overall trend today continues with focusing it just NW of I-95. It's a shame this map didn't show this 5 days ago. This forum would of been bouncing off the walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Nice heavy rainfall signal on NAM Bufkit for LGA, Saturday night: Also some decent 600-800mb frontogenesis coming through the area between 3z - 6z Sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Based on latest river forecast ensemble guidance and the 12z runs not backing down I would suspect that Mt. Holly will be hoisting Flood Watches with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Based on latest river forecast ensemble guidance and the 12z runs not backing down I would suspect that Mt. Holly will be hoisting Flood Watches with the afternoon package. One thing that hasnt been touched upon is the flooding that this storm may cause well north of NYC and into the NE area where a healthy snow pack is still present. Wouldnt be surprised to see some of the rivers overflow their banks in the heaviest rains N of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 12z RGEM total QPF through only 12z Sunday with more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 One thing that hasnt been touched upon is the flooding that this storm may cause well north of NYC and into the NE area where a healthy snow pack is still present. Wouldnt be surprised to see some of the rivers overflow their banks in the heaviest rains N of NYC Save for the Catskills and Berkshires, you have to go north of I-90 to find any substantial residual snowpack I believe, and the heaviest rainfall totals should stay south of there. 1.5" or 2" in the far north isn't going to cause major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Update from WPC regarding heavy rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Heaviest rain on the Euro is Saturday night. ~1.00" falls in about 6 hours with locally ~1.50" in about six hours. It has moderate rain for most of the day on Sunday and light rain persisting into the night. Widespread 2-3" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 12z JMA JP's Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Heaviest rain on the Euro is Saturday night. ~1.00" falls in about 6 hours with locally ~1.50" in about six hours. It has moderate rain for most of It cut back to 1.50"-2" of rain. It also cut back to1.88" of rain for NYC and a general is a general 1"-2" areawide now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 It also cut back to1.88" of rain for NYC and a general is a general 1"-2" areawide now. Going for 1-2" for NYC/LI and 2"+ from NYC N&W with jackpot zones of 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Where? People will attack me for giving wrong information but I'm sure you'll go un-scaved. It also cut back to1.88" of rain for NYC and a general is a general 1"-2" areawide now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Where? People will attack me for giving wrong information but I'm sure you'll go un-scaved. ecmwf_tprecip_ma_172.png I think that's 2-3" for most looking at the color scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 any short term drough talk will be put to rest after this...Euro looks like it jackpots CT with 3-4 inches there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 It also cut back to1.88" of rain for NYC and a general is a general 1"-2" areawide now. That's incorrect. Euro goes through 18z Monday with 2.5"+ in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I think that's 2-3" for most looking at the color scheme. Yes, a general 2-3" in most spots with an outside chance at 4" possible in localized areas that see the most training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the euro has snow as well at the end. I think he was saying that amount was rain for NYC and the rest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the euro has snow as well at the end. I think he was saying that amount was rain for NYC and the rest snow. The Euro is not snow at the end, the surface freezing line is into Maine and Canada at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Yeah no way is that snow at all for the coast also the precip would be too light probably at that time for dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The Euro is not snow at the end, the surface freezing line is into Maine and Canada at hour 78. the surface is close to NYC at hour 72. It could be snowing without it accumulating. That is snow verbatim on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the surface is close to NYC at hour 72. It could be snowing without it accumulating. That is snow verbatim on the euro. The surface freezing line jumps way north after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Any snow storms showing up long range on the euro. Interior has a few weeks left before the snow chances end. Got a feeling we get a big dog snow storm in the next 10 days. Would not be shocked if the higher terrain gets a few inches over the weekend. Great pattern. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Snow maps show an inch for NYC with more towards CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the superstorm took all the fresh cold with it. probably a white rain if it gets cold enough at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Snow maps show an inch for NYC with more towards CT.Can't deny the great trends. End of March surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 the euro shows elevated CAPE under the upper low all day sunday. we could see bands of weak tstorms rolling in from the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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