NNE Thread: Heading into the Heart of Winter

[powderfreak]

Well the other thread was over 50 pages and spanned the late-fall/early-winter period, so I figured it was about time to start a new one here as we head into the heart of winter over the next 4-6 weeks.

Today was an absolutely beautiful day across the North Country with sunshine, sparkling white snow cover, calm winds, temps in the 20s, and snow-plastered mountains rising overhead. And because it can't go a day without snowing on Mansfield, we even had some flurries falling from the 3 clouds in the sky. It really does not get much better than this for outdoor recreation in December.

Now we look forward to a light snow event on Tuesday, which looks like it could bring some snow to Maine's coastal plain (thanks inverted trough), north-central NH, northeastern VT, and with some synoptic moisture entrained in the flow, NW winds should also wring out some snowfall here in the upslope influenced regions. After that snow, attention turns to the potential Christmas Day storm... though after the last model fiasco (even King ECMWF wasn't even close to being right 90 hrs out), people should certainly proceed with caution.

I'll start the thread off with some pictures from today... yet another awesome day here in Paradise. Winter rolls on:

View from near my place in town this morning...

Through-the-windshield photo while driving up the Mountain Road to the ski resort; ahh the good ol' snowy Northern Greens.

View from the top of Spruce Peak... sunshine mixing with flurries falling out of the cloud Mansfield produced.

Lastly, a scenic view of December on Mansfield.

Northern New England is a beautiful place in the wintertime.

[TalcottWx]

LOL heading into the heart of winter. Weve had so much snow so far!

[dryslot]

Stick a dagger in my heart so far, Looking for our 1st accumulating snows, Hopefully this week...........

[TalcottWx]

Stick a dagger in my heart so far, Looking for our 1st accumulating snows, Hopefully this week...........

I honestly cant wait to go back to school

[W1WFG]

Raked leaves for a half-hour today, near GYX. Colder, a bit. Got dark earlier, a bit, but in every other way you couldn't tell it wasn't Veterans' Day.

[powderfreak]

LOL heading into the heart of winter. Weve had so much snow so far!

The last 6 weeks have definitely been the "progression into winter" temperature wise, even if snowfall hasn't been up to par. I think most of us up in NNE have had near or below zero temperatures now (?) and temperatures are running -1F to -3F so far in December from Concord to Burlington. The only exception is Portland which appears to be right at normal with a departure of +0.1F.

Although it hasn't been a good snowfall year so far, most of the area has seen at least some snow. There are areas in the east that are still looking for the first snowfall but it's bound to happen soon (maybe this weekend?)... climo argues these spots in ME and NH can't go all that much longer without seeing *some* snowfall. We are going into late December with Xmas coming up, and so the next 6 weeks will be relatively important to seasonal snowfall totals. Of course, it can always snow a ton in Feb/Mar so I guess Dec/Jan is the first half of the heart of winter, haha.

I'd love to see more in the way of synoptic snows in the next month to really get excited for this winter. The meso-scale and light fluffy snows are nice and all... but I'd love a solid foot of dense stuff. It builds a much more durable snowpack. Plus, synoptic snows are always unique and the snow falls with some QPF in it.

Here's to a Christmas snow and a snowy January.

[Logan11]

Nice diurnal spread here today in the hills wnw of Albany. Low of 3F and a high of 29F. Only 2 to 3 inches of snow cover (4 in the woods perhaps), but maybe we can hold it through weeks end or get a bit from that inverted trough. 18Z blitzes ALB north and most of VT, but I'd look upon that with a healthy dose of skepticism.

The last 6 weeks have definitely been the "progression into winter" temperature wise, even if snowfall hasn't been up to par. I think most of us up in NNE have had near or below zero temperatures now (?) and temperatures are running -1F to -3F so far in December from Concord to Burlington. The only exception is Portland which appears to be right at normal with a departure of +0.1F.

Although it hasn't been a good snowfall year so far, most of the area has seen at least some snow. There are areas in the east that are still looking for the first snowfall but it's bound to happen soon (maybe this weekend?)... climo argues these spots in ME and NH can't go all that much longer without seeing *some* snowfall. We are going into late December with Xmas coming up, and so the next 6 weeks will be relatively important to seasonal snowfall totals. Of course, it can always snow a ton in Feb/Mar so I guess Dec/Jan is the first half of the heart of winter, haha.

I'd love to see more in the way of synoptic snows in the next month to really get excited for this winter. The meso-scale and light fluffy snows are nice and all... but I'd love a solid foot of dense stuff. It builds a much more durable snowpack. Plus, synoptic snows are always unique and the snow falls with some QPF in it.

Here's to a Christmas snow and a snowy January.

[dendrite]

Hopefully the new thread brings new luck. 26.3 boring degrees. Hopefully the next 7 days are primarily snowy.

[Logan11]

I love that pic from Spruce Peak. I haven't stood in that spot since the Fall of 2000 I believe. Nice little consolation hike if you aren't up to doing Mansfield.

Well the other thread was over 50 pages and spanned the late-fall/early-winter period, so I figured it was about time to start a new one here as we head into the heart of winter over the next 4-6 weeks.

Today was an absolutely beautiful day across the North Country with sunshine, sparkling white snow cover, calm winds, temps in the 20s, and snow-plastered mountains rising overhead. And because it can't go a day without snowing on Mansfield, we even had some flurries falling from the 3 clouds in the sky. It really does not get much better than this for outdoor recreation in December.

Now we look forward to a light snow event on Tuesday, which looks like it could bring some snow to Maine's coastal plain (thanks inverted trough), north-central NH, northeastern VT, and with some synoptic moisture entrained in the flow, NW winds should also wring out some snowfall here in the upslope influenced regions. After that snow, attention turns to the potential Christmas Day storm... though after the last model fiasco (even King ECMWF wasn't even close to being right 90 hrs out), people should certainly proceed with caution.

[MaineJayhawk]

The last 6 weeks have definitely been the "progression into winter" temperature wise, even if snowfall hasn't been up to par. I think most of us up in NNE have had near or below zero temperatures now (?) and temperatures are running -1F to -3F so far in December from Concord to Burlington. The only exception is Portland which appears to be right at normal with a departure of +0.1F.

Although it hasn't been a good snowfall year so far, most of the area has seen at least some snow. There are areas in the east that are still looking for the first snowfall but it's bound to happen soon (maybe this weekend?)... climo argues these spots in ME and NH can't go all that much longer without seeing *some* snowfall. We are going into late December with Xmas coming up, and so the next 6 weeks will be relatively important to seasonal snowfall totals. Of course, it can always snow a ton in Feb/Mar so I guess Dec/Jan is the first half of the heart of winter, haha.

I'd love to see more in the way of synoptic snows in the next month to really get excited for this winter. The meso-scale and light fluffy snows are nice and all... but I'd love a solid foot of dense stuff. It builds a much more durable snowpack. Plus, synoptic snows are always unique and the snow falls with some QPF in it.

Here's to a Christmas snow and a snowy January.

Caribou is running way above normal. I'll allow tamarack to go into detail there. Basically from PWM northward is still pushing positive monthly departures, thanks to the retrograde nonsense.

Here's to snow this week.

[Logan11]

I was thinking Caribou could my ultimate place to move to, but now I see they have this problem with all the marine air coming in. Maybe I'd be better off around Jackman or south into the far northern CT Lakes area of NH. Of course none of this is any time soon...but I'm always looking to increase my snow season.

Caribou is running way above normal. I'll allow tamarack to go into detail there. Basically from PWM northward is still pushing positive monthly departures, thanks to the retrograde nonsense.

Here's to snow this week.

[dryslot]

Caribou is running way above normal. I'll allow tamarack to go into detail there. Basically from PWM northward is still pushing positive monthly departures, thanks to the retrograde nonsense.

Here's to snow this week.

[whitemountainhiker]

Its been awhile since I've posted on here, and I want to get back to doing it regularly. I moved from VA, to southern NH, and now come full circle and live in Lebanon once again. So I guess its easy to pick which obs thread to post in...here!

As for the weather this past week...fairly boring, but on the positive side, yes it has snowed, and we have a general snow cover as well. So I guess I can't complain too much. I don't think we've had any more than 5 inches this winter to date, so there is clearly room for improvement. But I'll take whatever I can get.

Temps have been cold enough to keep the snow, so that is also a positive.

Here is to some nice light snows to get us in the mood for Xmas this week, and a humdinger next weekend!!

[Allenson]

Back in Leb, eh WMH? Sounds good....welcome back to the Upper Valley.

Interesting overnight/morning--went to bed after the Pats game under perfectly clear skies, big ol' bright moon and temps down in the single digits. Woke up to low, steely gray skies, temp up to 15 and very light snow grains falling. Had some light snow all the way from home down to Hanover and yet now, it's cleared off once again. A north-northeast fetch has developed...might be able to eek out an inch this week.

[ak22]

Here is to some nice light snows to get us in the mood for Xmas this week, and a humdinger next weekend!!

Yes, please! Heading up to Mt Snow for 8 days of skiing on the 23rd - models look good, hoping they continue that way!!

Any posters up there in the Dover/Wilmington VT area?

Powderfreak, love those pics. I'm going to Banff in the end of Feb, I need to get my ski legs back before that!

[Lava Rock]

snow drought continues in earnest in my backyard.

[MaineJayhawk]

snow drought continues in earnest in my backyard.

Not for long. Looking good for a couple three inches anyway.

[tamarack]

Caribou is running way above normal. I'll allow tamarack to go into detail there. Basically from PWM northward is still pushing positive monthly departures, thanks to the retrograde nonsense.

Here's to snow this week.

Through 12/19:

PWM...+0.1

BGR...+0.9

MLT....+3.3

HUL....+4.5

CAR....+7.7

With that progression, Labrador City must be about +20.

At least the Dec record at CAR (26.5 in 2001, for +10.1) appears safe.

Had 2 hr of slo-mo feathers yest, 7-9 AM. I'm not sure I've ever seen flakes fall so slowly, perhaps 1'/sec with some bigger ones reaching 2'. Only a dusting, but quite nice to watch. I'll believe the wraparound/retro snow when I see it. So far this season we've had two retro scenarios, one triggering our only WSW (forecast was 4-8", result was 0.8") and the other a WWA for 3-5", result being nary a flake.

As other posters have noted, climo is in our favor. I can look back to 04-05 when we went into Feb w/o a single event over 3" then had over 60" in 31 days, or 06-07 when we had 76" after Feb 1 after just 19" before then. (Don't think those were La Nina, though.)

[Allenson]

This sucker is backing up a bit already, it seems. BTV has a few inches painted in here over the next few days per today's afternoon updates. If so, I'll take it and I'll love it.

[dendrite]

-SN now into the Manchester, Derry, and Salem RWIS sites in S NH. There's too strong of a low level dry layer here right now, but it's reaching the ground at Lost River. 25.2F and 64% RH currently. I think the NW winds will eat up most of the wrap around banding trying to spiral into W ME now for me. I'd rather take my chance with a quick burst of 0.10" QPF versus having it spread out over 6-12hrs.

Then midweek maybe we get another 1-3" with the inverted trough.

[tamarack]

-SN now into the Manchester, Derry, and Salem RWIS sites in S NH. There's too strong of a low level dry layer here right now, but it's reaching the ground at Lost River. 25.2F and 64% RH currently. I think the NW winds will eat up most of the wrap around banding trying to spiral into W ME now for me. I'd rather take my chance with a quick burst of 0.10" QPF versus having it spread out over 6-12hrs.

Then midweek maybe we get another 1-3" with the inverted trough.

Had some very light snow 2:30-3:30 here in AUG - no sign of it on the ground or cars, but co-worker's wife reported ground coverage about 20 miles to the south. Pretty good looking echoes moving in on PWM last time I checked.

12z gfs gives us at least a glancing blow Sun-Mon, far better than the earlier run that sent it off toward Spain, then dowsed us with an inland runner for New Year's. Sudden shifts from systems moving W-E (OTS) to S-N (rain) seem common so far, that and retros.

[dryslot]

Had some very light snow 2:30-3:30 here in AUG - no sign of it on the ground or cars, but co-worker's wife reported ground coverage about 20 miles to the south. Pretty good looking echoes moving in on PWM last time I checked.

12z gfs gives us at least a glancing blow Sun-Mon, far better than the earlier run that sent it off toward Spain, then dowsed us with an inland runner for New Year's. Sudden shifts from systems moving W-E (OTS) to S-N (rain) seem common so far, that and retros.

Pretty good band of +SN right now, The euro had a BOMB for the Sunday-Monday storm with low down to about 968mb..........

[powderfreak]

Awesome discussion out of BTV this afternoon... they are calling for 2-4" tomorrow and then 2-5" on Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...LOOKING TO BE TWO MINOR SNOW EVENTS

THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A DISTINCT

BREAK BETWEEN THEM.

THE FIRST SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE UNFOLDING TUESDAY MORNING AS

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN.

SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK BY THE

AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO PAINT IN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS

ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE

BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF SINCE THAT WILL DIRECTLY RELATE

TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. BIGGER DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS HERE.

NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST, PRODUCING 0.6-0.9" OF QPF BY

WEDNESDAY 12Z. GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH ROUGHLY

0.15-0.25" IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD (HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN

VT). AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS BEST TO HEDGE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF

THINGS. THE OTHER TRICK IS TO GET THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO

CORRECT. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH, WE SHOULD SEE THOSE RATIOS UP

AROUND 18:1 TO 20:1. DOING THE MATH, WE SHOULD END UP WITH WITH

SEVERAL INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THINGS BEGIN TO WIND DOWN

SOME. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT.

LESSER AMOUNTS FOR NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT, THINK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

SHOULD PRIMARILY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (4"), ALTHOUGH SOME

LOCAL AREAS THAT HAVE SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (EG: JAY PEAK,

MT MANSFIELD) THAT BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS YOU CAN PROBABLY

GUESS, IF I`VE UNDERESTIMATED THE QPF AND/OR SLR VALUES, WE`LL SEE

MORE SNOW. ALSO SUSPECT WE MAY SEE SOME OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING ALONG

THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS WE`LL HAVE AN

INVERSION NEAR RIDGETOP LEVEL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BELOW. ADD IN A

DASH OF ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND I EXPECT THE EASTERN

SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO HAVE MORE SNOW THAN THE WESTERN

SIDE. IF THESE MICROSCALE FEATURES OVERPERFORM, THEN WE COULD BE

LOOKING AT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR PARTS OF CHITTENDEN AND

FRANKLIN COUNTIES.

LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A BREAK TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE

MOVES OFF. WILL STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. ITS POSSIBLE

THAT AS WE LOSE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE, THE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO A

LIGHT BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNIZZLE (SMALL/FINE SNOW GRAINS)

IN PLACES.

LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE ROTATES IN FROM THE EAST

DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR A SIMILAR SITUATION THAT WE

EXPECT TO OCCUR TUESDAY. AGAIN, QUESTIONS ABOUT QPF. AT THIS POINT

IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 2-5" SNOWFALL WITH THE MOST AGAIN BEING

ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE

MODELS ARE A BIT LOWER WITH THIS POTENTIAL BATCH OF SNOW, SO ONLY

BROUGHT POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE. LATER

FORECASTS WILL FINE TUNE THIS POTENTIAL.-- End Changed Discussion --

[wxeyeNH]

Light snow began here in Central NH at 5pm. Didn't thing it would get in here this early!

[dendrite]

Light snow began here in Central NH at 5pm. Didn't thing it would get in here this early!

Yup! snowing here too and 24.6F. Hopefully that band swings through. 1/4SM +SN at PWM.

[dryslot]

Yup! snowing here too and 24.6F. Hopefully that band swings through. 1/4SM +SN at PWM.

Ended up with a quick 2.0" with that band.......

[dendrite]

This is really insane looking...especially the E to W progression.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is really insane looking...especially the E to W progression.

That looks backwards... like a summer (or winter) squall line that usually goes W to E

Great!

[dendrite]

0.17" w.e. from the band at PWM...impressive. PSM down to 1.5SM. I thoroughly expect the band to die in E NH and end up here as flurries.

[mahk_webstah]

I am rooting it on from my plane about to depart philly to orlando. Gogo internet onthe flt so I can properly monitor....anything falling on youbrian?