Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It had less to do with south movement and more with ratios, which were horrible....liquid basically verified here...and probably there too....MNtransplant took a core sample and had 8:1 ratios... Yea, and that big dry hole that opened up in the shield kept me from getting over 6". That was a 2hr lull for me. Hurt those north of me much worse. 1 big difference this go around is that we won't have a prolonged period of rain waiting for a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 So far, NAM is marginally better on the north fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not going to be good it's a little better than 6z....baby steps (or more tripping) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 it's leaving so much energy back that by the time the system gets to us it doesn't have the forcing to fight the cold air push vs. prior decent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This looks like the same set up from last storm. You have to watch where the dry slot sets up too with this. Looks exactly the same wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hour 45 is pretty good. A tight gradient though, with Northern MD getting zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM sim rad is painful up here...fortunately, it won't take much of a north jog to turn into a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 it's a little better than 6z....baby steps (or more tripping) The problem is the 6z was a major step backwards... and the 12z is marginal improvement if any... time is not on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is so reminicent of last storm when the nam had the very tight gradient and shifted it north and south before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 south again. precip field maybe a tad north but not that much Fredricksburg bullseye again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The problem is the 6z was a major step backwards... and the 12z is marginal improvement if any... time is not on our side. well, with the tight precip gradient the NAM and SREFs show, you are in a tougher spot but there is time the difference is like a quarter inch on the computer screen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Not going to be good You should probably wait for the model to run first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The NAM sucks as a winter storm model. It bounces like 300 miles every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 south again. precip field maybe a tad north but not that much Fredricksburg bullseye again. Actually, it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Guess we'll have to wait until mid April to finally get a storm that isn't suppressed to our south!Or the last one which was initially a colder march 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 well, with the tight precip gradient the NAM and SREFs show, you are in a tougher spot but there is time the difference is like a quarter inch on the computer screen! Agree. Both GFS and NAM have trended slightly but time is running out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 The NAM sucks as a winter storm model. It bounces like 300 miles every run. I think we're starting to get into it's "money" time period, but the bouncing around is troubling from a forecasting standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Tight gradient for sure but that's still a good shot for NOVA, DC to S-MD. There is good qpf in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is the hp really that strong to create such a wall and tight gradient? A 1030? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is .37" at BWI and .56" at DCA thru 12Z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Tight gradient for sure but that's still a good shot for NOVA, DC to S-MD. There is good qpf in that. If I were in DC I would be feeling comfortable. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is .37" at BWI and .56" at DCA thru 12Z Monday I think 3 to 5 is a reasonable forecast at this point, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That's a pretty sick gradient. 0.7" QPF or so for DC and 0.0" for northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 2-4 DC with isolated heavier amounts and 1-3 Baltimore sounds like a good call right now. edit: didn't see final QPF would now go 3-5 DC 2-4 Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is .37" at BWI and .56" at DCA thru 12Z Monday total for storm is .42" at BWI and .63" DCA (thru 18Z Monday) marked improvement from 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 total for storm is .42" at BWI and .63" DCA marked improvement from 6Z oh wow..yeah, that is definitely an improvement. 3 to 5...holding firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think 3 to 5 is a reasonable forecast at this point, no? for you guys, yeah for me, 2-4" based purely on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 south again. precip field maybe a tad north but not that muchFredricksburg bullseye again. as usual, you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 700 mb chart from NAM gives a good idea of onset and cutoff of the precipitation. This 12 Z run shows precip from hour 33 to hour 48. The suppression is not north to south, it is northwest to southeast suggesting Wes' area may hold on to the snow a little longer. So lots of people will get precipitating snow but it looks like light snow for 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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