The 3/3 30 degree temp change sleet/ice event for NC

[FallsLake]

Special weather statement from RAH:

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1219 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

NCZ024-025-040-041-031930-
ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...
SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY
1219 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...LIGHT RAIN OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE AREA WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 1PM AND 3PM...

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND TRIANGLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR WILL CHANGE
LIGHT RAIN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND THEN SNOW ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH
OF CHAPEL HILL AND DURHAM BY AROUND 1PM...IN THE RALEIGH AND WAKE
FOREST AREA AROUND 2PM AND ACROSS PITTSBORO AND GARNER AROUND 3PM.

TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT 12PM WILL
QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BETWEEN 1PM AND 3PM AND THEN FALL
INTO THE 20S AFTER 5PM. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES
AND ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM RECENT SUNSHINE. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
HAZARDOUS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

$$
 

[mackerel_sky]

There's some precip filling in up around Hickory and that should keep the precip coming until early evening . It doesn't look like its heavy, but light to mod for a few hours should get alot of y'all 1-2 inches of snow/sleet

[Brick Tamland]

I don't see how we get much precip to be a big deal now.

[Berlin1926]

28F here.  Light sleet/snow.

[FallsLake]

I don't see how we get much precip to be a big deal now.

I think it's going to depend on what forms west of us in the next couple of hours. All we can do at this point is watch the radar. Temps are about at freezing down to north Raleigh now.

[Isopycnic]

28F here.  Light sleet/snow.

Berlin, NC?

[GoAPPS]

There is a line of showers pushing SW across N.C. What's the deal with that?

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[weatherlover]

Do you guys think there will be a freezing drizzle issue late this eve/ tonight?

[JoshM]

There is a line of showers pushing SW across N.C. What's the deal with that?

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

 

That's the actual front

[Isopycnic]

There is a line of showers pushing SW across N.C. What's the deal with that?

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

That's the cold front.

[Setzy1517]

Do you guys think there will be a freezing drizzle issue late this eve/ tonight?

I'd say you can at least expect black ice to become an issue tonight into tomorrow's morning commute.  

[Berlin1926]

Berlin, NC?

 

Just south of Virgilina, Virginia...

[Buddy1987]

How much you guys have?

Not even a half inch of snow

[GaffneyPeach]

That's the cold front.

Indeed it is! Winds are howling and temp is crashing! Definitely the front.

[BullCityWx]

57 when I came in to work at 11:30. I just saw 38.9 on a PWS close to here. 

[packbacker]

Not even a half inch of snow

Radar looks better? Still nothing???

[Disc]

How much you guys have?

Maybe a half an inch, but that might be too generous.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[FLweather]

I think it's going to depend on what forms west of us in the next couple of hours. All we can do at this point is watch the radar. Temps are about at freezing down to north Raleigh now.

 

Agree. It up to the ULL from here on out. Honestly I don't like the recent trends in HRRR... very spot light bands.

 

But the ULL should be tracking through in the next several hours. Precip and banding should fill in moreso as it crosses over the mountains into the piedmont.

[FallsLake]

Agree. It up to the ULL from here on out. Honestly I don't like the recent trends in HRRR... very spot light bands.

 

But the ULL should be tracking through in the next several hours. Precip and banding should fill in moreso as it crosses over the mountains into the piedmont.

Here's the latest from RAH (our area still has some hope):

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: AS OF 17Z...1037 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER

THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS

EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND

SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS (AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT). AN

ATYPICALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WAS PRESENT ACROSS GA/SC AND SOUTHEAST

NC. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS PRESENT AT THE INTERFACE OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASSES...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WAS SITUATED

NEAR AND ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER AT 17Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH

APPROACHING CENTRAL TN AT 17Z WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA

BETWEEN 21-03Z. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR

MORGANTON/NC AT 17Z WILL TRACK ESE TO MYRTLE BEACH BY 18-21Z AND

ENTIRELY OFFSHORE BY 00Z. A SEPARATE SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE

SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST VA AT 17Z WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND

EASTERN VA BY 21-00Z.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: THE SW-NE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WHICH

EXTENDED FROM MEB-RWI-ORF AT 17Z APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A

COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (925-850MB) AND DPVA IN

ADVANCE OF SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS

WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL

CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST AND/OR WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD/

INTERMITTENT BETWEEN 18-21Z AS A MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS (`DRY

PUNCH` IN WV IMAGERY) PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS

AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER MID-LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES (I.E. THE NC

FOOTHILLS AS OF 17Z)...SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN

POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE IN ASSOC/W AN INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...

STRENGTHENING DPVA (IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHING

FROM THE WEST)...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...

ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A LINE FROM CLT-RDU-ECG BETWEEN 21-03Z.

EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO QUICKLY END FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-03Z

AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL

FGEN SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST...WITH A CLEARING TREND

BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.

PTYPE: THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM IS A GOOD PROXY FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE

THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENCED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA AND AMDAR

SOUNDINGS FROM RDU BETWEEN 1543-1613Z. EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO

GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH TO THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...

THOUGH PERHAPS PIVOTING TO A MORE WSW-ENE OR SW-NE ORIENTATION

ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE SFC-H85 LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE. EVEN AS THE

RAIN/SNOW LINE SHIFTS SOUTH...THE INCREASINGLY SCATTERED NATURE OF

PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON (AS

DETAILED ABOVE) INDICATES THAT A PTYPE OF FZRA OR SNOW WOULD BE

EXPECTED NORTH OF THE 0C ISOTHERM (SFC-H85)...SNOW WHEN ELEVATED

SHOWERS /DEEPER SATURATION/ ARE PRESENT...FZRA ELSEWHERE IN THE

PRESENCE OF SHALLOWER SATURATION.

WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES: GIVEN THAT PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY TO BE

INTERMITTENT FROM THIS POINT ON...ONE WOULD THINK THAT IT WOULD BE

DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUM FROM 18Z-03Z...

THOUGH GRADUAL (ALBEIT MARGINAL) ICE ACCUM OF A TRACE-0.05" WILL

CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH INTERMITTENT PRECIP AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO

FALL BELOW FREEZING INTO THE 20S FROM NORTH-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE...

NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 21-03Z WHERE A

CORRIDOR OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION OF 1-2 HR DURATION COULD DEVELOP

AS OUTLINED ABOVE. IN THIS AREA (WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING

REMAINS IN EFFECT)...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2" COULD OCCUR LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (21-03Z) BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. EVEN

THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN THIS TYPE OF

EVENT...FEEL IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM

WARNING AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF

ACCUM LATE THIS AFT/EVE APPEARS TO BE IN OR VERY NEAR THE WARNING

AREA. -VINCENT

 

[Brick Tamland]

This one still looks like a dud for centrla NC. The roads aren't even bad. I can see some icy spots on bridges and overpasses tonight, but nothing like roads being whole sheets of ice.

[Isopycnic]

This one still looks like a dud for centrla NC. The roads aren't even bad. I can see some icy spots on bridges and overpasses tonight, but nothing like roads being whole sheets of ice.

Roads being "whole sheets of ice" was never forecast for your area.

[Brick Tamland]

Roads being "whole sheets of ice" was never forecast for your area.

 

I didn't say it was. But some folks were making it out like the roads would be treacherous from this.

[FLweather]

Looks like the radar is filling in some SW of Raleigh and in the Foothills around Hickory. Even precip breaking out around CLT behind the surface front in north central SC.

[HKY18]

Snowing in Lenoir

[JoshM]

Radar looking a little more stout back to the west

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GSP&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

And a special weather statement from GSP

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=gsp&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

[gritsnc]

Snow and sleet on the western end of Kernersville.

[Buddy1987]

I usually never bash but this was an absolute catastrophe of a forecast. 4-8 inches and I get a quarter inch. In this day and age this is putrid horrendous and down right awful seeing how much we (taxpayers) put into these models. Now I understand that people will contradict this with the Arctic air over achieved however for models to be this far off even short term models such as the rap and hrrr just as early as this morning makes you ponder how horribly off this storm really was. Bash me if you want but in just simply stating my opinion.

[sparkync]

I usually never bash but this was an absolute catastrophe of a forecast. 4-8 inches and I get a quarter inch. In this day and age this is putrid horrendous and down right awful seeing how much we (taxpayers) put into these models. Now I understand that people will contradict this with the Arctic air over achieved however for models to be this far off even short term models such as the rap and hrrr just as early as this morning makes you ponder how horribly off this storm really was. Bash me if you want but in just simply stating my opinion.

been around 52yrs. I don't care how much $ is invested they will never be exact!!

[Hugo]

I usually never bash but this was an absolute catastrophe of a forecast. 4-8 inches and I get a quarter inch. In this day and age this is putrid horrendous and down right awful seeing how much we (taxpayers) put into these models. Now I understand that people will contradict this with the Arctic air over achieved however for models to be this far off even short term models such as the rap and hrrr just as early as this morning makes you ponder how horribly off this storm really was. Bash me if you want but in just simply stating my opinion.

 

 

Good point, since we're still basically in the days where a hurricane would sneak up on you in the middle of the night and kill everyone you've ever met. 

[Buddy1987]

been around 52yrs. I don't care how much $ is invested they will never be exact!!

And I completely agree with you in that aspect. They can't even agree with one another half the time. That being said all models were showing good qpf once the 850 line came thru and continuing into the afternoon. We received flurries for the rest of the morning and up til now after it dropped below freezing. Idk maybe it's just me but I would be embarrassed to forecast something like that to the public and be that far off. Blacksburg was gung Ho this morning on potential banding and adding counties to the winter storm wwaring. I just can't fathom how the models are not even close to the verification of what the atmosphere showed us today.