nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hires NAM surface falls below 32 between 6z and 9z (30 degrees at 9z). 850s -1 at 12z Monday. Probably a warm layer somewhere so sleet probably. Sim radar at 12z looks great for what would come next if it went beyond 60 hours. ETA: Impressive temp drop on the Hires NAM. We drop 30 degrees in 9-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It shouldn't surprise anyone if this is truth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think we are pretty set but on the flip side I wouldn't care much if it busted. Really? A chance at putting a cherry on a great winter and you are basically indifferent? I want this one pretty bad because the bullseye is small. Let's have our day on the inside looking out and call it a wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm going to assume a good bit of that blue is sleet accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 damn it's warm before the storm lol.. guess my 60 from last night might happen after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It shouldn't surprise anyone if this is truth.... Considering we flip to all snow shortly after, that is one sweet looking radar to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I kinda think the bust potential on this one is pretty high. And by bust I mean, if we start to expect an area wide 3-6 snowfall after ice. I could see that failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Really? A chance at putting a cherry on a great winter and you are basically indifferent? I want this one pretty bad because the bullseye is small. Let's have our day on the inside looking out and call it a wrap If we have a chance to get more snow I'll take it especially if I have to deal with this crappy cold weather... but it wouldn't be heartbreaking since we don't really 'need' it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hires_snow_acc_washdc_20 (1).png I'm going to assume a good bit of that blue is sleet accums. both of your maps are from 7AM Monday when we have good sim radar to our south and we are about to flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Of course they're for 7AM. The 4k NAM stops at h60. I mean, I have the special, super secret 2k NAM out to h80, but I'm not sharing. both of your maps are from 7AM Monday when we have good sim radar to our south hand about to flip to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 damn it's warm before the storm lol.. guess my 60 from last night might happen after all hires_t2m_washdc_46.png lolololololol @ 61 in Baltimore and 32 near York. silly models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Of course they're for 7AM. The 4k NAM stops at h60. I mean, I have the special, super secret 2k NAM out to h80, but I'm not sharing. then don't advertise it as the storm lol. don't say that it wouldn't surprise us to be all in mix at 7AM, when that seems to be the plan for DC proper. It's still a hell of a lot of precip and more to our south. You seem really negative tonight, idgi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 damn it's warm before the storm lol.. guess my 60 from last night might happen after all hires_t2m_washdc_46.png One heck of a gradient. Should be fun to watch that move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 one to save: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably only a few hours....maybe 4-5.....of precip after that. I'm not really sure what you're expecting. then don't advertise it as the storm lol.don't say that it wouldn't surprise us to be all in mix at 7AM, when that seems to be the plan for DC proper. It's still a hell of a lot of precip and more to our south. You seem really negative tonight, idgi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I kinda think the bust potential on this one is pretty high. And by bust I mean, if we start to expect an area wide 3-6 snowfall after ice. I could see that failing. I think at this point that is the upside potential for expectations. So it wouldnt be a bust if it didn't go down like that. But it has a chance. A bust would be no snow at all. Not seeing that scenario right now. The second wave could mean business too and give some folks 6+. We have a nice range of possibilities. I doubt many folks are sold on 3-6 until they are shoveling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably only a few hours....maybe 4-5.....of precip after that. I'm not really sure what you're expecting. the 3-6" of snow and .25 inches of ice you think will bust. moving myself back to lurking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ian, that map is awesome. You could drive 83 at 60mph and drop 1 degree every minute. Windows down to heater cranking in less than half hour. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 lolololololol @ 61 in Baltimore and 32 near York. silly models Well it's partly snowpack initially before the cold crashes.. it is quite a gradient. Possible.. it's a pretty crazy look either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ian, that map is awesome. You could drive 83 at 60mph at drop 1 degree every minute. Windows down to heater cranking in less than half hour. Awesome I'm kind of as interested in seeing the temp crash as anything. I was skeptical on the super cold sfc temps initially but they have a lot of support now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably only a few hours....maybe 4-5.....of precip after that. I'm not really sure what you're expecting. The NAM dropped roughly 0.45 after hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the 3-6" of snow and .25 inches of ice you think will bust. moving myself back to lurking now. Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 damn it's warm before the storm lol.. guess my 60 from last night might happen after all hires_t2m_washdc_46.png Hell of a gradient up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say. not outlandish just doesn't seem to be backed up by any model or trend. being close into the metro is evil, but either way it seems we are getting a good chunk of frozen precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 sorry guys I'm a rookie, why is it I have the gut feeling that this could be a major ice storm for dca? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well it's partly snowpack initially before the cold crashes.. it is quite a gradient. Possible.. it's a pretty crazy look either way. I don't think I've ever seen a gradient that tight before..... looks like one of those Arctic fronts from the Plains or midwest. 60s on Sunday would be nuts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anyone know what typical sleet to QPF ratios are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm not really invested in this, but it would be a damn sight better to get light rain to icy stuff to a topping of a few inches of snow, rather than snow to rain. So much better. Edit: And I'd get to enjoy mild weather over the weekend leading into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 sorry guys I'm a rookie, why is it I have the gut feeling that this could be a major ice storm for dca? The temp profiles aren't supporting a major ice storm. We may see some freezing rain at the onset but we'd flip to sleet. We'd likely see a sleet storm before an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say.No one should be surprised per se if that didn't happen, but let's keep in mind the NAM is really the only model with such an extended period of IP before the transition...Euro barely gives the closer in areas much of a mix at all before the transition to snow and transitions much earlier, and along with the GFS at 18z would be good for a general 5-7" area wide. Of course that could all change with the rest of the 0z suite, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.