REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's obviously still a warning criteria snowfall for the southern half of the forum, I just don't like 1) Being on the northern edge of a storm like this and 2) Seeing a normally over amped model showing a more suppressed solution. I wasn't really concerned until I looked at the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and saw not how suppressed they were, not how warm they were, but how dry the were. 0.5"+ on a 24 hour plus event is not exactly encouraging for big snow. I dont have access to ensembles but being that the EURO hasnt been the best lately im not going to put much stock into its QPF output.... Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I dont have access to ensembles but being that the EURO hasnt been the best lately im not going to put much stock into its QPF output.... Yet I have a feeling that the 12z GFS will ease our minds coming up in about another hour and a half, that model has been the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This was the 00z GGEM still at hour 120 with as you can see, a lot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Took a look at the 06z GEFS mean, sort of looks like the 06z DGEX, maybe a little less suppressive on the northern end. 1"+ runs from about KMMU to ACY. 0.75"+ up to about KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NAM @ 48 has the PV slightly farther W, not good, but still not like it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 for those worried about suppression --- ...ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRIDAY......WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN TIME...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECENS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERS OFF CA WILLARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY ACROSS THE FOURCORNERS REGION. MUCH LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...THE ENERGY WILL GETCAUGHT UP IN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY CONFLUENT SRN STREAMFLOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE NATION AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT. THE00Z NAM IS A SLOWER/DEEPER OUTLIER SFC AND ALOFT. THE 00Z GFS ISTHE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND MORE SHEARED BY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES ENERGYOUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL/00Z UKMET AND 00ZECMWF SPLIT THE DIFF. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECENS MEAN BOTHSUGGEST THE 00Z GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND BOTH FAVOR THE 00ZECMWF MUCH MORE STRONGLY. WILL THEREFORE FAVOR THE ECMWF LEDCLUSTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 for those worried about suppression --- ...ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRIDAY... ...WELL-DEVELOPED SURFACE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN TIME... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECENS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERS OFF CA WILL ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MUCH LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...THE ENERGY WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY CONFLUENT SRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE NATION AND BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT. THE 00Z NAM IS A SLOWER/DEEPER OUTLIER SFC AND ALOFT. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND MORE SHEARED BY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES ENERGY OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFF. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECENS MEAN BOTH SUGGEST THE 00Z GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND BOTH FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF MUCH MORE STRONGLY. WILL THEREFORE FAVOR THE ECMWF LED CLUSTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. We're probably going to do fine here, even if the JP is over Central NJ. New England, that might be a different story. I think especially NNE is mostly out of the game. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles were really dry up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's obviously still a warning criteria snowfall for the southern half of the forum, I just don't like 1) Being on the northern edge of a storm like this and 2) Seeing a normally over amped model showing a more suppressed solution. I wasn't really concerned until I looked at the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean and saw not how suppressed they were, not how warm they were, but how dry the were. 0.5"+ on a 24 hour plus event is not exactly encouraging for big snow. The DGEX means nothing. Next run it could show a low over NYC. Big deal. I kind of like how the Euro came south a little and got colder, but the Euro being the warmest bit of guidance and furthest north is a concern in my eyes. I don't think this is a storm where the whole Northeast will be digging out-it will likely be the standard SWFE/warm advection snow/ice/rain gradient from north to south. If the Boston/I-90 crowd gets excited, it likely means a bad outcome for us. I still think suppression is very unlikely as far south as we are with the storm type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 1/22/12 now the #1 analog at 120 hours over the east. 3/24/90 is the #1 analog over the east at 96 hours. when looking at the CIPS analogs the Enso Phase for that year is located on the left - the 3/24/90 was during a cold ENSO - the number 1 analog for the Neutral Enso is 2/9/1994 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know, I know it's the long range NAM but I can't help but notice how relatively dry the entire evolution of the system is up through Sunday night for parts of the mid-west as compared to the major globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know, I know it's the long range NAM but I can't help but notice how relatively dry the entire evolution of the system is up through Sunday night for parts of the mid-west as compared to the major globals. Just another solution and it should still be stored for reference i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know, I know it's the long range NAM but I can't help but notice how relatively dry the entire evolution of the system is up through Sunday night for parts of the mid-west as compared to the major globals. Yeah its basically a hot mess....it is good to see it overall be still barely cold enough at 84 hours at 850 at NYC, that would fit well with the Euro/GFS profiles thermally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think in the end we're looking at another 12-18 hour event with 6-10" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think in the end we're looking at another 12-18 hour event with 6-10" for most If i were a betting man i think that would be a pretty close outcome for everyone currently. Was really hoping for that caboose to give a really nice second part/ encore of the storm but this currently looks like a modest SWFE that really isnt going to be major in by any means in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If i were a betting man i think that would be a pretty close outcome for everyone currently. Was really hoping for that caboose to give a really nice second part/ encore of the storm but this currently looks like a modest SWFE that really isnt going to be major in by any means in my eyes We're still far enough out that it could trend wetter and a longer duration event. But its looking like it is out of here by Monday evening and what falls Sunday is light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If i were a betting man i think that would be a pretty close outcome for everyone currently. Was really hoping for that caboose to give a really nice second part/ encore of the storm but this currently looks like a modest SWFE that really isnt going to be major in by any means in my eyes 6-12 is a good call right now but the models could possibly be underdoing the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think a 12-18 hour event is a really conservative call right now. I would favor 24-36, that's what the majority of the guidance shows. The height of the storm should be from the early morning hours on Monday through Monday night. I would also not be totally shocked to see snow persist into Tuesday, a lot of the GEFS ensembles have activity at the back end holding on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If i were a betting man i think that would be a pretty close outcome for everyone currently. Was really hoping for that caboose to give a really nice second part/ encore of the storm but this currently looks like a modest SWFE that really isnt going to be major in by any means in my eyes Hopefully there's another storm later in the week like some modeling shows and we can cash in with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hopefully there's another storm later in the week like some modeling shows and we can cash in with that. Dont want to get flamed here but if that 0z ECMWF last night verified and it also went negative tilt in time to come up the coast it would quite literally shatter 95-96' snowfall records in almost the entire tri state area. **THIS IS A WISHCAST OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF IT WORKED OUT NOT LITERAL FORECAST** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gfs looks to hold serve this run. Dam cold thru hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Dont want to get flamed here but if that 0z ECMWF last night verified and it also went negative tilt in time to come up the coast it would quite literally shatter 95-96' snowfall records in almost the entire tri state area. **THIS IS A WISHCAST OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF IT WORKED OUT NOT LITERAL FORECAST** The Euro has actually been consistent on a storm that time frame getting captured and stalling out. I think a couple runs of the GFS have shown that as well. They've just depicted an offshore solution for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The Euro has actually been consistent on a storm that time frame getting captured and stalling out. I think a couple runs of the GFS have shown that as well. They've just depicted an offshore solution for the most part. Yea its interesting time frame that COULD yield the biggest storm of the season. THANK YOU for not taking my extrapolated forecast seriously btw, just mentioned the potential is there for something truly amazing currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yea its interesting time frame that COULD yield the biggest storm of the season. THANK YOU for not taking my extrapolated forecast seriously btw, just mentioned the potential is there for something truly amazing currently It has been in back of mind, for many I suspect, but using the logic of 'lets get through this 1 first' I have been silent about it. One heck of a winter to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yea its interesting time frame that COULD yield the biggest storm of the season. THANK YOU for not taking my extrapolated forecast seriously btw, just mentioned the potential is there for something truly amazing currently How big of a storm you talking? Is it a near miss currently, or well ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS is going to be a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hr 75 surface and 850's south of ttn. Light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How big of a storm you talking? Is it a near miss currently, or well ots Congrats Bermuda, but wrong thread for that. I'll post an overview in a more suitable thread shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS has snow moving in Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hr 78 surface and 850's south of Phl. 540 by ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Temps continue to crash. 540 line down to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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