bluewave Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 It will be interesting to see exactly how cold NYC will verify later this month to determine how low of a monthly temperature it can finish with. The current -4.9 is already among the coldest monthly departures of the 2000's so far. March 2014..............-4.9 to date January 2014............-4.0 December 2010........-4.5 January 2009............-4.1 February 2007..........-6.3 January 2004............-7.3 February 2003...........-4.5 January 2003............-4.6 December 2000.........-5.5 July 2000.................-4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Wow I forgot how cold Feb 2007 actually was. I think below -5 is a good bet this month based on what I'm seeing though a few days of well above normal possibly beyond 3/27/28 could change that. Also will see how warm it gets Friday and Saturday of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GFS 06z at H5 looks absolutely outstanding from Days 4-6. The building ensemble support for a cutoff low in the Northeast Pacific means there is also increasing likelihood of a PNA ridge spike out west, however brief it is. We will have to figure out details of timing with individual perturbations but the current idea on forecast models is that there is potential for significant amplification east of the MS River. The GEFS are all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe our luck will change, in regards to snow, next week. ECMWF ensembles have the MJO going into phase 2. Which is cold and wet phase for our region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Maybe our luck will change, in regards to snow, next week. ECMWF ensembles have the MJO going into phase 2. Which is cold and wet phase for our region: It could be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It could be freezing rain. P-type forecast based on the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It could be freezing rain. where is the data to support that statement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 where is the data to support that statement ? Lol you guys make me laugh.. I;m just saying..he put "maybe our luck will change in regards to snow"...cold and wet doesn't mean snow.. it could be freezing rain etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It could be freezing rain. That's not what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It could be freezing rain. In late March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol you guys make me laugh.. I;m just saying..he put "maybe our luck will change in regards to snow"...cold and wet doesn't mean snow.. it could be freezing rain etc. ok now I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On the GFS so far, the wave that eventually forms the coastal is stronger and farther SW out in Pacific, could lead to some hefty changes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Will the growing season be delayed a bit? There have been many years where budding or even some flowers began to bloom around this time. The super warm March of 2012 comes to mind. Idk, some things are already growing, and I've been seeing buds since the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Idk, some things are already growing, and I've been seeing buds since the end of January. Some plants are budding here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 On the GFS so far, the wave that eventually forms the coastal is stronger and farther SW out in Pacific, could lead to some hefty changes here It's less amplified this run and will dig less than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The northern stream was slower this run, misses the phase, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Idk, some things are already growing, and I've been seeing buds since the end of January. The extended daylight has much more to do with it then does the temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 12z GFS is amplifying the northern stream wave at 183hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Lol it buries dca again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 12z GFS is amplifying the northern stream wave at 183hr. That's what happens if the two streams remain separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Hate to say it....but the GFS looks really nice early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 total monthly and annual minimums 32 or lower at KNYC... year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total 2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19..............92 as of 3/27 2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60 2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37 2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83 2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63 2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86 2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62 2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63 2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67 2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71 2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78 2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86 2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47 2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89 1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56 1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52 1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49 1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69 1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89 1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60 1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84 1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80 1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68 1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54 1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74 1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71 1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72 1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74 1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74 1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69 1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67 1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53 1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77 1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79 1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70 1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68 1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87 1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96 1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76 1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75 1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76 1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57 1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78 1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78 1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97 1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82 1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87 1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86 1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67 1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79 1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75 1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82 1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78 1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78 1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88 1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93 1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59 1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's looking like we will see a repeat of the recent pattern the next few days of a milder spring day today getting into the 60's followed by possible record cold Monday for places like JFK where the record low is 25 set in 1977. 3/24 25 in 1977 27 in 1992 28 in 2009+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It's looking like we will see a repeat of the recent pattern the next few days of a milder spring day today getting into the 60's followed by possible record cold Monday for places like JFK where the record low is 25 set in 1977. 3/24 25 in 1977 27 in 1992 28 in 2009+ Already down to 22 here....JFK looks to have broken the record it's at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Already down to 22 here....JFK looks to have broken the record its at 24 It is frigid out especially with that wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It is frigid out especially with that wind. Yea seriously, my forecast low was supposed to be 24, looks like much of the area is (under) performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NYC had a low temperature of 21° this morning. The last time the temperature was at least as cold this late in the season occurred in 1982 (4/7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Already down to 22 here....JFK looks to have broken the record it's at 24 The record at NYC going back to 1888 was just too cold to beat, but JFK and LGA were able to beat records set in the 50's and 70's with a shorter observation period. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 0843 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 22 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 25 SET IN 1977. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 841 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 ....RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY... A RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 22 WAS SET TODAY AT 8:06 AM AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 24 SET IN 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The temperature of 17° in White Plains also broke its daily record of 20°, which was set in 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NYC had a low temperature of 21° this morning. The last time the temperature was at least as cold this late in the season occurred in 1982 (4/7). it was 18 on 3/25/1956...the latest teens for KNYC since 1956... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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