Sparky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hi res NAM sim radar only turns over to rain during lull in precip.most of us are good snow thru 5am. only 5am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OK, I've seen differing opinions and things on here, but I was curious whether the DC metro area actually flips to all rain or mostly a mix of something like rain/sleet/snow toward mid-late morning...and that it will be relatively light during the lull, before the deformation snows crank up later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hi res has DCA over 2" by 7pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How far NW do the pingers/mix make it? I'm mobile, can't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nobody axe themselves yet but some pingers reported by DT follower in midlithian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 only 5am? I somehow can't imagine DC turns to rain by 5AM. Maybe some sleet getting mixed in. 2-m temperatures are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OK, I've seen differing opinions and things on here, but I was curious whether the DC metro area actually flips to all rain or mostly a mix of something like rain/sleet/snow toward mid-late morning...and that it will be relatively light during the lull, before the deformation snows crank up later in the day. probably light rain/zr/sleet during the lull....freezing drizzle would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've basically been ignoring the fact that every model has us at like 35 degrees during the comma head Snow begets snow, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 probably light rain/zr/sleet during the lull....freezing drizzle would be sweet Agreed. A crust in between two layers of snow is no problem and makes it fun to take walks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've basically been ignoring the fact that every model has us at like 35 degrees during the comma head Yeah, saw that on the 2-m temps, but they seem to be lowering throughout (eyeballing the temp line as best I can on the NCEP maps). Are rates solid enough at that point? It sure looks like the lower levels above the surface have cooled a fair bit by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 only 5am? Carroll County stays all snow through the heavy stuff on the Hi-Res NAM, maybe switching to a mix during the lighter lull period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nobody axe themselves yet but some pingers reported by DT follower in midlithian Rest easy. 10 miles SE of Midlo and full snow. Radar looks good. You guys are in GREAT shape! Share the photos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 only 5am? you're fine throughout. I was really referring to the 95 corridor. We teeter on the edge for a bit in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hi res nam gives me 2.4"....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Carroll County stays all snow through the heavy stuff on the Hi-Res NAM, maybe switching to a mix during the lighter lull period. OK, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 probably light rain/zr/sleet during the lull....freezing drizzle would be sweet Maybe some crust as a foundation for the deformation snows later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've basically been ignoring the fact that every model has us at like 35 degrees during the comma head You don't honestly believe that with this low level surface cold locked in.. I'll be surprised if DCA sniffs 32° tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wes gets deathbanded tomorrow evening Three models do that. I'll need since you guys will do better tonight. So far I'm sort of disappointed in my rates as I'm afraid by 09Z I might have mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hi res nam gives me 2.4"....lol even though I don't buy the temp profiles, how much do we lose to snizzle, assuming .4" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2" qpf western DC suburbs, wow I keep forgetting it's the NAM. It's awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Three models do that. I'll need since you guys will do better tonight. So far I'm sort of disappointed in my rates as I'm afraid by 09Z I might have mixing problems. you're like 15 minutes away from getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Let me ask some questions as to do they have any meaning. 1.What about the dry area along eastern VA/NC border and down into eastern NC? 2.What about the mass off Flroida which produced 50mph winds earlier? 3.What about the blob off NC coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn, the hi-res is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You don't honestly believe that with this low level surface cold locked in.. I'll be surprised if DCA sniffs 32° tomorrow Yeah, I don't think with temps cold tonight and precip tomorrow with 8-10 inches of snow on the ground we'll see a temp spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 even though I don't buy the temp profiles, how much do we lose to snizzle, assuming .4" or so? i dunno...Im honestly too exhausted to keep analyzing models... not directed at you at all but everyone believes whatever they want to believe anyway...if it is sleeting at 5am, 100 people will be posting that no model showed it, and how could this be happening...when it comes to weenieism you can scream at people for an hour that it will rain and they simply wont accept that it was ever said...I am too tired to keep answering questions that have been overanalyzed and answered and discussed ad nauseum for the last 48 hours....if people don't understand at this point the general outline of how this storm might evolve, they are simply unteachable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hi res nam gives me 2.4"....lol Would you be pissed if you had 6-8" OTG by morning, but 1" of it was sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Nam hires sim radar 3am...thats some heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You don't honestly believe that with this low level surface cold locked in.. I'll be surprised if DCA sniffs 32° tomorrow agreed..32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Would you be pissed if you had 6-8" OTG by morning, but 1" of it was sleet? hell no...as long as I get 6" from this storm and I get to see +SN for more than 5 minutes I'll be a happy camper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Whenever I want to feel sad I look at the NWS forecast or the 850-700 thicknesses early tomorrow. Whenever I want to feel happy I read these posts and multiply the NAM precip amounts by 7-8. Still hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.