nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im looking on instant weather maps and it looks okay to me, 850's look fine, in looking at critical thicknesses though it appears somewhere from 1000-850 there is a warm punch in there. This reflects well on the total snowfall maps. would that warm pouch lead to sleet and is therefore counted as snow by the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 80-90% of qpf remains snow on nam verbatim. By the time the 850 line reaches NYC, they have dry slotted.... Disregard. Couldn't amend due to traffic. Meant plus 2. And was for coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Once again the 4k NAM is painting a much different picture. How are the temps looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM does develop a pretty intense comma head on the backside, if that comma head develops over us, we could see some really serious snows.. Most models show this moving NNE, which means it would crawl through while really blossoming.. I'm really excited for two things.. An epic front end dump, then a surprising back end comma head.. did you see the 18zgfs it really explodes the CCB right over northern CT putting 1.00"+ in 6hrs just from that backend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Through Hour 36, EWR is all frozen with .42 fallen already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB is still stretching down to Cape May at 03z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 would that warm pouch lead to sleet and is therefore counted as snow by the model? Absolutely.... however as others have stated most is over by the time this becomes an issue. But as future reference when looking at snowfall maps, the algortihms aren't perfect and as an example with our ice storm last week, short range models (HRRR/RAP) were showing 8+ snow in areas that STARTED off with sleet (ahem my house lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well I guess you pick your poison. You want more front end snow but no potential wraparound CCB or you want less front end snow with the potential for more in the wraparound. Mt. Holly has 6-10 in the watch and they've been dead on this entire winter and that sounds like a good call. It'll fall right in line with all our other 6-8/10" storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The city goes above freezing on the 4k NAM for only 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not to start a fire, but hr 42 does not look like snow for NYC or NE NJ Most of the heavy precip has already ended by hr 42 which is when the temperature warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC is over 1.75" QPF on the 4k and very close to 2.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The city goes above freezing on the 4k NAM for only 3 hours. The city goes above freezing on the 4k NAM for only 3 hours. At surface, 850, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Precip finally shuts off at 06z Friday. 30 hour event from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At surface, 850, or both? I was referring to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM does develop a pretty intense comma head on the backside, if that comma head develops over us, we could see some really serious snows.. Most models show this moving NNE, which means it would crawl through while really blossoming.. I'm really excited for two things.. An epic front end dump, then a surprising back end comma head.. did you see the 18zgfs it really explodes the CCB right over northern CT putting 1.00"+ in 6hrs just from that backend.. It was extremely impressive so maybe it's not such a bad thing to wish for a super powerfully amped/phased system that closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thru 39 almost 1 inch QPF falls with 850s at minus 2 or better thru MC into KNYC. Had a diff map up and couldnt fix in time. Not sure what's on the back end but that's a good upfront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At surface, 850, or both? The 850's never go above, but the 4k nam is just a weenie version of the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 850's never go above, but the 4k nam is just a weenie version of the nam lol The NAM is the weenie version of the nam though. So that would make the 4knam bratwurst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 850's never go above, but the 4k nam is just a weenie version of the nam lol wow really...that would actually be colder than 18z then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is all snow, all meaningful precip occurs with cold temps aloft and at surface.. Front end thump, dryslot, comma head moves in after.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One thing that the NAM has been consistently picking up on is a brief lull before the backside precipitation develops. If you believe the 4K NAM the back end snows would be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM was eye candy for sure, but let's wait for other guidance tonight before calling a trend back SE. We need the kicker to have a strong influence on the southern trough before it amplifies out of control. It's good though that the NAM seemed to have the new data ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM is the weenie version of the nam though. So that would make the 4knam bratwurst? The thing is it is usually good with temps esp in storms, but we dont know how accurate the low placement is. So until other models show a similar placement we cant rely on its temps yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM is the weenie version of the nam though. So that would make the 4knam bratwurst? Isn't 4k a higher resolution? Can you please explain how that works? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM was eye candy for sure, but let's wait for other guidance tonight before calling a trend back SE. We need the kicker to have a strong influence on the southern trough before it amplifies out of control. It's good though that the NAM seemed to have the new data ingested. Did the NAM have the new N SW data in it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM was eye candy for sure, but let's wait for other guidance tonight before calling a trend back SE. We need the kicker to have a strong influence on the southern trough before it amplifies out of control. It's good though that the NAM seemed to have the new data ingested. Yeah we need the rgem to move east and byna decent amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k nam has 20+ for parts of LI according to weatherbell. Not believable right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Isn't 4k a higher resolution? Can you please explain how that works? Thanks Yes the 4k nam is a smaller grid therefore higher resolution. I'm just poking fun at the NAM though, but in theory yes the 4k NAM "should" offer a better picture since it is smoothing less over the grid then the OPnam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models Personally I'm discounting until anything looks remotely like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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